Every single week, 300+ fantasy football players are using a lineup setting resource called the Heat Map to dominate their friends, set money-making DFS lineups, and cash in on player prop bets.
The Heat Map offers contextual analysis and expectations for every single player in every single game, every single week, so you know exactly what to expect from any player taking the field.
It's backed by 30+ hours of research per week, often leading me to interesting discoveries and nuggets that fantasy football players and bettors need to be aware of.
I share all of them in the Heat Map each week, but here are 13 interesting things to know before the madness begins on Sunday morning!
By the way, if you want to give the Heat Map a try, I'm giving it away for just $1.99 this week!
🏈 Isaiah McKenzie is a sneaky plug-and-play option for anyone hurting at WR.
After never playing more than 12.9% of the offensive snaps in a single game with the Colts, McKenzie played 44.3% of the offensive snaps after Josh went Downs (see what I did there?).
If Downs is inactive, McKenzie is the likeliest bet to assume his slot role, one that pays 8.8 targets per game when Gardner Minshew is under center.
In 11 career games where he played at least 43 of the offensive snaps—Josh Downs never played fewer than 43—Isaiah McKenzie averaged a strong 13.5 PPR points per game on 6.9 nice targets, 4.5 catches, 56.5 scrimmage yards and 0.5 TDs (6 total).
He scored 16 or more PPR points in 5 of 11 games (45.5%)—including 4 games of 21 or more points—but also scored fewer than 10 PPR points in 6 of 11 games (54.5%).
Interestingly enough, McKenzie’s career best game happened against the Patriots—his week 10 opponent—in week 16 of 2021 when he caught 11 of 12 targets for 125 yards and 1 TD (29.4 PPR points) as a member of the Buffalo Bills.
🏈 Pay attention to what kind of RB you have if you’re thinking about using them against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags hemorrhage receiving production to RBs (they allow the most RB catches and 3rd most RB receiving yards in football) but are otherwise one of the stingiest defenses in football against the rush (they hold enemy RBs to the 2nd fewest rushing yards and 3rd fewest TDs).
A capable receiving back—like this week’s opponent Christian McCaffrey—can do some real damage in the passing game, while a pure rusher—like Derrick Henry or Gus Edwards—are likely to find little running room.
🏈 Pay attention to what kind of QB you have if you’re thinking about using them against the Minnesota Vikings.
At first glance, Minnesota looks like a good matchup for QBs, allowing the 12th most fantasy points per game to enemy signal callers.
But that's because they're allowing 21.11 QB rushing yards and 0.33 QB rushing TDs per game.
Through the air however, the Minnesota is holding enemy QBs to the 15th fewest passing yards and 15th fewest passing TDs per game.
Just 4 QBs in 9 games have been able to score 15 or more fantasy points against the Vikings, none of which have been within the last 4 games.
And if you remove their rushing statistics, then just 2 QBs in 9 games have been able to reach 15 fantasy points against Minnesota.
This week’s opponent—Derek Carr—for example, might have a tough time against Minnesota, as he butters his bread through the air, not on the ground (Derek Carr is averaging 2.6 rushing yards per game with no rushing TDs this season).
🏈 The New Orleans Saints are a fascinating matchup for TEs, looking tough as nails at the macro level but soft as Charmin at the micro level.
New Orleans is technically holding TEs to the 5th fewest catches, 5th fewest yards and 12th fewest PPR points per game despite allowing the 4th most TDs.
Yet at the same time, 5 different TEs in the last 7 games have been able to score 10 or more PPR points against the Saints, 2 of which scored 16+, including a high of 23.5 from Cole Kmet just a few days ago.
Always be sure to dig deeper into the details. Don’t just take numbers at face value.
🏈 The Titans are the ONLY defense in football that have not yet allowed a single TD to tight ends.
🏈 The Browns and Ravens' defenses are the dueling Spiderman meme.
They are holding QBs to the fewest (Ravens) and 2nd fewest (Browns) fantasy points per game.
They are holding RBs to the 4th fewest (Browns) and 9th fewest (Ravens) PPR points per game.
They are holding WRs to the 2nd fewest (Browns) and 7th fewest (Ravens) PPR points per game.
They are holding TEs to the fewest (Browns) and 4th fewest (Ravens) PPR points per game.
🏈 Tank Dell is averaging 14.3 PPR points per game yet has never scored anywhere near 14 PPR points.
Explosion or bust after 7 games, Dell scored 20 or more PPR points in 3 of 7 games but also fewer than 9 PPR points in the other 4 of 7 games.
🏈 Week 9 was...interesting...for Cincinnati Bengals TEs...
After 7 games of uselessness as a whole, all of a sudden THREE Bengals TEs had fantasy-viable days in the same game.
Irv Smith caught 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards and 1 TD on 25 offensive snaps (11.6 PPR points).
Drew Sample caught 3 of 4 targets for 30 yards and 1 TD on 26 offensive snaps (12 PPR points).
And Tanner Hudson caught 4 of 5 targets for 45 scoreless yards on 16 offensive snaps (8.5 PPR points).
The 3 of them combined for 33.2 TOTAL PPR points between weeks 1 and 8 with ZERO games of 7 or more PPR points.
And then randomly in week 9, they combined for 32.1 PPR points and THREE games over 9 PPR points.
To make things even more interesting, Cincinnati plays Houston in a possible shootout in week 10, a defense that is bleeding the MOST catches, 4th most yards, 8th most TDs and MOST PPR points per game to enemy TEs.
6 TEs in 8 games have been able to score 10 or more PPR points against the Texans, including a 25 point eruption from Cade Otton just last week.
There is nothing at all that is "safe" about any Bengals TE, but with a mouthwatering matchup, a high implied total and a strong over/under that suggests heavy passing volume, Irv Smith, Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson are all deep, deep, DEEP dice roll, hailmary TE 2/streaming gambles.
🏈 The last time Tee Higgins did not play (week 5), Trenton Irwin caught 8 of 10 targets for 60 scoreless yards (14 PPR points).
It was also the game that Ja'Marr Chase caught 15 of 19 balls for 192 yards and 3 TDs (52.2 PPR points)...
Still, this is a Trenton Irwin tweet…
🏈 Here is an alert I sent to my 300+ subscribers in my online community (Discord Channel) that you might find helpful...
With Kyler Murray back under center, I'm sending out some trade offers for Marquise Brown this week and recommend you do as well.
In 6 games last season that Kyler Murray and Brown played together WITHOUT DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood averaged a mouthwatering:
18.3 PPR points per game
10.7 targets per game
7.2 catches per game
80.8 scrimmage yards per game
0.5 TDs per game (3 total)
Hollywood scored 11+ PPR points in all 6 games, including 3 different games over 20 with a high of 28 points.
🏈 On the surface, you might expect that Detroit Lions RBs have a great matchup against a Chargers defense that is allowing the 8th most PPR points per game to enemy RBs.
The reality is that, at least according to the numbers, the matchup itself sets up much better for Jahmyr Gibbs' play-style and usage than David Montgomery.
You see, when you dig in deeper, you'll notice that the Chargers allow the 8th most PPR points per game to RBs because they allow the 2nd most RB catches and 2nd most RB receiving yards in football, right up Gibbs' ally (he's averaging 5.5 targets and 4.7 catches per game).
Meanwhile, the Chargers are actually tough on rushing backs, limiting them to the 7th fewest rushing yards and 13th fewest TDs, which is where Montgomery butters his bread.
8 RBs in 8 games have scored 10 or more PPR points against the Chargers, 5 of which scored 16 or more.
That said, if you remove the receiving production of running backs who caught more than 2 passes—Montgomery's season high—against the Chargers, then just 3 RBs have scored 10 or more PPR points, none of which got to 15.
🏈 CeeDee Lamb is already averaging 20.1 PPR points per game after 8 contests and he's still 2.1 touchdowns behind where he *should* be with 857 scrimmage yards.
🏈 Evan Engram has 434 scrimmage yards but ZERO touchdowns this season. He's #1 on this week's Positive Regression Cheat Sheet, ahead of James Cook as the only 2 players in football who are a whopping 3 touchdowns behind where they *should* be by now.
🏈 Just 5 WRs in 8 games have scored at least 10 PPR points against the Jets.
By the way, if you want to give the Heat Map a try, I'm giving it away for just $1.99 this week!