Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge: Who should be the number one pick in 2026?

Congratulations! You've got the number one pick in your fantasy baseball draft, giving you the option to choose one of the two most elite hitters in the game: Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge. You're instantly putting your team at the forefront for contention, regardless of the type of league you play in. But of course, both players come with risks that go along with that upside.

When the clock starts ticking, who would we recommend you draft? Let's look at the case for both players to find out.

The case for Shohei Ohtani

He's the best all-around hitter in baseball. He has 50+ home run potential and he's been a base-stealer as well, likely landing around the 20-25 steals mark (that 50+ steal season is looking more and more like an outlier.) It comes with a high average, high OBP, and, with arguably one of the best lineups in baseball around him, high counting stats too.

Simply put, this guy can do it all for you.

The case against Shohei Ohtani

Shohei's return to pitching always puts additional downside risks. There's additional injury risk, of course, but there's risk even without injury too. The Dodgers could decide to keep him out of the lineup on days he pitches - or even give him the day off in the game after he pitches. That would result, naturally, in fewer at bats than he's had in previous seasons, which could dampen the counting stats.

Why would the Dodgers make that decision? Well, for one, the goal could simply be to keep Ohtani healthy throughout the entire season, which would mean limiting him in some way - the six-man rotation on the pitching side will work itself out to more rest than your average starter, but on the hitting side, unless he's taking those full days off, the natural inclination could be to have him only pitch during games he starts.

And there was cause for concern around this last season. It's a limited sample size, to be clear, but Ohtani's stats dipped in both those scenarios relative to his overall season stats:

Stat	Full Season	In games he pitched	Day after he pitched
Average	.282	.222	.143
Runs/Game	0.92	0.64	0.63
HR/Game	0.35	0.29	0.25
RBI/Game	0.65	0.86	0.5
SB/Game	0.13	0	0
Strikeout Rate	25.7%	33.9%	32.4%

The Dodgers' staff already knows this, but it's up to us to determine whether they're going to act on it. Thankfully, the Dodgers will be using a six-man rotation this year, so even if they do give him additional days off hitting, this impact will likely only be once a week.

The case for Aaron Judge

The power is off the charts, with a 60+ home run season and two additional 50+ home run seasons in the past four years. This buoys the counting stats, naturally - multiple seasons in that stretch where both the runs and RBIs were above 120. And it comes with an insanely high batting average, too: He's batted over .310 in all three of those massive home run seasons. The steals are lower - hovering around 10 a season - but he's giving you elite production everywhere else.

The case against Aaron Judge

It's ultimately down to health, as it always is for Judge. He struggled earlier in his career with health issues, then added a fluky injury in 2023 that cost him 40 games. Last season, he played through a right flexor strain that limited him to DH duties after a short IL stint. To be clear: The Yankees will have no problem with Judge moving to DH-only if needed to keep him in the lineup (sending Giancarlo Stanton to the shadow realm), so I view this risk as limited.

The lineup around him is less inspiring, too - especially in that scenario above where Stanton ends up unplayable. You're relying on last season's Trent Grisham breakout to be real, as well as continued growth from Ben Rice, a breakout for Jasson Dominguez, and Jazz Chisholm to stay healthy. There's a ton of lineup-related risk that could bring downside to the counting stats overall, potentially even leading to more walks instead of base hits if there's not much protecting him.

Of course, I'm writing this on January 14th, so it's possible that the Yankees have added more bats in free agency by the time you're reading this (the return of Cody Bellinger?)

Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge: Who am I taking first overall?

To me, I'm trying to take the overall production player in many cases, so my lean is to taking Shohei Ohtani in this scenario, even with the playing time downside risk. The lineup overall is much better, the stolen bases do matter here, and Ohtani has shown he can keep up - if not surpass - Judge in the power department. I'll take my chances that way, but Judge is the clear number two overall on my board.

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