Top NFL Player Props: Week 16, 2025 season

With a Basement Brewed Fantasy Football subscription, you get access to our Week Winners tool, which includes baseline projections for fantasy-relevant players every week of the NFL season that you can use to build better betting slips on PrizePicks, FanDuel, Drafters, DraftKings, Underdog and more.

Here are some of the top NFL player props for Week 16 that you should consider targeting.

Justin Herbert over 241.5 passing yards

Basement Brewed Fantasy Football projection range: 255-295 passing yards

Even with some notable additions to their defense, the Cowboys are still the most friendly matchup to QBs on the year, allowing the most passing yards per game (270.9). And it's needed for Justin Herbert, who has been ice cold since week 11, topping out at 210 passing yards during that time. The offensive line being decimated has certainly contributed to this.

This is where I should tell you the risk - and the caveat to that risk. The Cowboys technically have the highest pressure rate in the league, but 24 of their 164 QB pressures (per Pro Football Reference) came against Justin Fields. That's caveat one. And caveat two is that the Cowboys are all the way down at 20th in sacks despite the pressures they're getting.

With Omarion Hampton coming back, I like the idea that Justin Herbert bounces back with play-action passing in this game and rights the ship with a chance to all but clinch a playoff spot on the line.

Jacoby Brissett over 249.5 passing yards

Basement Brewed Fantasy Football projection range: 280-320 passing yards

Jacoby Brissett just gets there, and there's still no running game to be found. The Falcons' pass defense has been middling, but they've also faced some subpar QB play relative to the rest of the league, including Mac Jones, Tyler Shough, Marcus Mariota, and Tyrod Taylor. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett has averaged over 300 passing yards per game on the season when starting. The number is too low.

Darren Waller over 27.5 receiving yards

Basement Brewed Fantasy Football projection range: 35-55 receiving yards

Even after last week's dud of a game from the Ravens, the Bengals are still the most friendly matchup a tight end can have, allowing the most yards per game by a solid margin.

Waller is coming off of a 7-66-2 line last week against the Steelers, and if the Dolphins are going to be competitive here - even with Tua's benching - they'll need to move the ball through the air relatively well. I think that could happen, and Waller would be a big beneficiary of that. Notably, Waller has been quite up-and-down, plus has left games due to injury, but is still averaging 34.7 yards per game this season.

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Sign up to Basement Brewed Fantasy Football today and start making smarter lineup decisions that can dominate through the 2025 NFL season.

And if you're looking for my favorite spot for props, it's Drafters, where you can get a 100% deposit match with code BBFF.