Underdog MLB Best Ball: Outfielder Fades (February 2026)

Drafting players that are going to return positive draft-day value is the name of the game in best ball, and it's even more important in MLB best ball, where positions blur together to give us a multitude of decisions on what player archetypes to construct our roster around.

But sometimes, the drafting public gets too far in front of their skis, and the result is a player who is going way earlier in drafts than they probably should unless they hit their highest ceiling outcome.

Here are three of my Underdog MLB best ball outfielder fades that I won't be drafting at their current costs.

Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics

Current ADP: 38.3 (Early round 4)

Earliest I'm comfortable taking him: Early round 6

Tyler Soderstrom took some huge leaps forward in 2025. In nearly every case, though, he overperformed his expected stats - and now he's going in a spot that assumes he's going to improve even more in 2026.

I understand the concept of taking shots on a player like this, but at cost, there are outfielders with proven track records of doing what people are projecting onto Soderstrom going right around him - and even later, too.

Why risk it?

Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates

Current ADP: 58.0 (Late round 5)

Earliest I'm comfortable taking him: Late round 7

Ah, yes, Oneil Cruz. The classic case of:

• He hits the ball hard, but he barely hits the ball

• He's runs super fast, but he barely gets on base

The flashes are so fun to watch. We see the highlights, but the overall body of work just isn't there to even come close to justifying a round 5 draft cost. He'll score points in this format by nature of home runs and steals counting a ton, but other players are simply going to score more overall.

Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals

Current ADP: 97.1 (Early round 9)

Earliest I'm comfortable taking him: Early round 13

Jac Caglianone absolutely tore it up in the minors last season, including posting a whopping 1.132 OPS in AAA. Then he got the call to the majors, and, well, it did not go as planned. But it was his first taste of the majors, and now that those jitters are out of the way, surely his 70-grade power is going to come through this season.

And yet, here I am writing about how you shouldn't draft Jac Caglianone at his current cost. Maybe I'm on an island here, but this is the exact type of player that falls into my normal draft pattern of we're a year early on drafting him, and he'll be two rounds later next season.

Like, what's his ceiling case here? 35 home runs, akin to a prime Jake Burger season? Adolis Garcia is right behind him, having done one of those already (albeit regressing heavily since then.) Jo Adell did that last season and is only going a round ahead. Trent Grisham hit 34 last season and is two rounds behind him (and, to be clear, I'm not really believing the Trent Grisham breakout either.)

But that's his ceiling case. Now you find his median outcome, and, well, it's not sitting in 9th round value by my estimation.

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