Who's going to be the Falcons starting QB in 2026: Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.?

The Atlanta Falcons have a QB mess on their hands, with Michael Penix Jr. looking pretty meh so far in his career when he's been healthy, and newcomer Tua Tagovailoa, who was kicked to the curb by the Dolphins, joining the room to compete for the starting role.

Neither of them feel like inspiring picks, but the Falcons will have to choose one of them, and starting quarterbacks in the NFL need to at least be on our radar for fantasy football purposes.

Let's take a look at why each could be the Falcons starting QB in 2026 and determine where we believe the team will lean throughout the season, talking through how it'll also impact us as fantasy football managers.

The case for Michael Penix Jr. as the starter

All the incentives line up for Michael Penix Jr. to get the leash he needs to prove himself when healthy.

Tua Tagovailoa has proven to be a semi-competent starter in this league, and he was clearly brought in to be competition (and injury insurance) for Penix, but it's just a one-year deal, and the likelihood of him being the future QB of this team beyond this season feels slim.

Meanwhile, the investment the team has in Michael Penix Jr. via the 8th overall pick in the 2024 draft matters, and even more so, the team will need to decide prior to next season whether they're going to pick up the fifth-year option on him. That means they need to decide this season whether he is going to develop into a reliable starter or not.

Penix is definitely sitting in that gray area of unknown regarding his future, and the best way for the team to decide whether he's the answer or not will be to have him healthy & taking reps in live, regular season games.

The case for Tua Tagovailoa as the starter

Of course, maybe the Tua addition could be considered a sign that they think Penix will not be the answer.

Tua has proven to be a competent enough quarterback to lead an offense during his time in Miami, despite some obvious flaws in his game. But he's just 28 years old, and we've seen some of these renaissance QBs get second chances and turn out to be fine in their new homes, at least in short bursts (see: Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones.)

Even if Tua is not the long-term answer, he would be a better short-term bridge option, and especially so if the team drafts a quarterback in the expected-to-be-loaded 2027 class, which would be expected in the scenario that Tua starts most of the games this season and the team declines Penix's fifth-year option.

It's certainly possible - maybe even probable - that Tua would give this team the best chance to win in 2026.

Are the Falcons trying to compete or plan for the future?

The Falcons find themselves in an odd spot, where there's clear talent on the offensive side in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, plus another young receiver joining in this year's draft in Zachariah Branch that could develop quickly into the number two option at wide receiver. That's enough talent to make a push in a weak NFC South for a playoff spot. But this team has flaws on the defensive side, and when you add in the quarterback uncertainty, it makes the decision making much harder.

What we do know is that this team shouldn't make it far in the playoffs even if they win the NFC South. And for that reason...

We believe Michael Penix Jr. should be the Falcons starting QB once healthy

It just makes too much sense for the organization to throw him out there and play for the future. Tua should start the first few weeks while Penix continues his rehab & recovery, but once cleared to play, there's too many long-term incentives that outweigh the short-term ones. It'll be incumbent on Penix to prove he's capable to continue to make starts, but the transition should happen as early as possible to give the front office ample time to prepare for 2027.

Do either of these guys matter for fantasy football?

In a 1QB redraft league, no. These guys will be off the radar there, with plenty of more talented options available in more stable environments.

Once you get into Superflex leagues, things get interesting. I think either could be rosterable on the right teams, with my preference going to Penix, who I expect will start most of the weeks where your other quarterbacks will have byes. Ideally these guys would be your QB3, depending on leavgue size.

For dynasty, Penix is likely the only one with true value, but that can change pretty quickly if we can tell that the team wants Tua to be the bridge beyond 2026. Then at least you're getting something by rostering him, but I'm not paying much for that.

In best ball, you'd really rather not have to rely on this situation at all, but taking one of them as a QB3 on a team is an option - ideally when you have one or more of the big three offensive weapons to pair them with.

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