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2023 Fantasy Football Preview for Every Single Player on the Buffalo Bills

Updated: Jul 24


👆 Destroy your friends with a draft cheat sheet that they don't even know exists! 👆

2022 was another strong but ultimately unfulfilling year for the Buffalo Bills and their fans, winning the AFC East with a dominant 13-3 record but falling to the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.


But this is a fantasy football website. And from a fantasy football standpoint, Buffalo was once again one of the best investments you could make, finishing 2nd in scoring, 2nd in yards, 8th in pass attempts, 7th in passing yards, 2nd in passing TDs, 15th in rushing attempts, 7th in rushing yards, and 15th in rushing TDs.


In fact, over the last 3 seasons (2020-2022), the Josh Allen/Sean McDermott tandem has finished:


🟢 2nd, 3rd and 2nd in scoring

🟢 2nd, 5th and 2nd yards

🟢 11th, 5th and 8th in passing attempts

🟢 3rd, 9th and 7th in passing yards

🟢 3rd, 7th and 2nd in passing TDs

🟡 17th, 13th and 15th in rushing attempts

🟢 20th, 6th and 7th in rushing yards

🟡 15th, 7th and 15th in rushing TDs


That team success has predictably translated to the individual level as well:


🟢 Josh Allen has finished as the fantasy's QB 1, QB 1, and QB 2

🟡 Devin Singletary finished as fantasy's RB 31, RB 18, and RB 23

🟢 Stefon Diggs finished as fantasy's WR 3, WR 7, WR 4

🟡 The WR 2 role in Buffalo has produced fantasy's WR 27 (Cole Beasley, 2020), WR 39 (Cole Beasley, 2021) and WR 35 (Gabe Davis, 2022)

🟡 Dawson Knox finished as fantasy's TE 38, TE 11, and TE 14


Fantasy football doesn't always need to be difficult or confusing. Buffalo is one of the few units in all of football where you know exactly what you're getting; elite QB play, a stud WR 1, solid RB 2 options, a WR 3 option with explosive weekly potential, a serviceable, streamable TE and a whole lot of firepower.


In other words, it's never a bad thing to get Buffalo Bills on your team in 2023.

2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Looking Ahead

This offseason, Buffalo:


✅ Replaced Devin Singletary with Damien Harris, formerly of the rival New England Patriots, creating a dynamic duo in Harris and 2nd year man James Cook.

✅ "Lost" WRs Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder but added Trent Sherfield and, perhaps more importantly, drafted Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the 26th overall pick to create significant mismatches in the slot.


(They also drafted Florida WR Justin Shorter with the 16th pick in the 5th round).


👀 As of this writing (10:08pm on 6/12/2023), the Bills are also the current favorites (+250) to land prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins. 👀

The Bills are currently pegged (by Vegas Sportsbooks) for over 10.5 wins (-150) and another AFC East title (+120), with the 3rd best odds of winning their first Super Bowl (+900) and Josh Allen sporting the 3rd best odds of winning his first MVP crown (+800).


In other words, Buffalo is once again a team to target heavily in 2023 fantasy football.


👇 With that all being said, let's do a thorough 2023 fantasy football preview of each and every fantasy-relevant player on the Buffalo Bills! 👇

Buffalo Bills Quarterbacks

🟢 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Josh Allen (QB)

2022 was yet another elite campaign from Josh Allen, who finished:

  • 7th among QBs in passing yards (4,283)

  • 2nd in passing TDs (35)

  • 7th in passing 1st downs (214)

  • 3rd in rushing attempts (124)

  • 3rd in rushing yards (762)

  • 3rd in rushing TDs (7)

  • (Allen handled 61.1% of the Bills' rushing attempts inside the opponent's 5 yard line. The next closest QB was Justin Fields at 50%)

  • 4th among QBs and 11th overall in rushing 1st downs (55)

  • 2nd in fantasy points (24.7 per game)

Allen scored 17 or more fantasy points in all but one game last year, with 14 games over 20 fantasy points, 3 of which went over 30.


In 83 career games—including playoffs—where Allen has played at least 55% of the offensive snaps, Allen is averaging:

  • 22.6 fantasy points per game

  • 34.4 pass attempts per game

  • 21.6 completions per game (63%)

  • 248.8 passing yards per game

  • 1.9 passing TDs per game (155 total)

  • 0.8 interceptions per game (64 total)

  • 7.3 rushing attempts per game

  • 41.9 rushing yards per game

  • 0.5 rushing TDs per game (40 total)

  • 0.3 fumbles lost per game (22 total)

  • Allen even has 3 targets, 2 catches, 28 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs in that time

Among the safest floors in fantasy football, Allen has scored at least 15 fantasy points in 70 of 83 games (84.3%), including 20+ fantasy points in 47 of 83 games (56.6%).


Also among the highest ceilings in fantasy football, Allen has scored at least 30 fantasy points in 18 of 83 games (21.7%), including a career high of 40.5 fantasy points as a rookie against the rival Dolphins back in week 17 of 2018.


Moving into 2023, Allen will once again be accompanied by stud WR Stefon Diggs, solid-if-unspectacular WR 2 Gabe Davis, and trusty red zone threat TE Dawson Knox.


The Bills have moved on from Devin Singletary and Isaiah McKenzie/Jamison Crowder, but replaced them with arguable upgrades in a James Cook/Damien Harris tandem and TE Dalton Kincaid who's basically a slot WR that should create big-time mismatches.


Not to mention that, as of this writing, the Bills are currently (as of 6/12/2023) the favorites to land prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins. 👀


Vegas Sportbooks currently have Josh Allen pegged for:

  • Over 4,350.5 passing yards (-105), which would be the 3rd most in 5 years as a full time starter

2023 fantasy football preview for every single player on the Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, James Cook, Damien Harris, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and more!
  • Under 32.5 passing TDs (-120), notable considering he's throw for 35 or more TD passes in three straight seasons

  • Over/Under 550.5 rushing yards (-110), which would be his 2nd "fewest" in 5 years as a full time starter

  • Over 6.5 rushing TDs (-125), as he's done in 4 of 5 professional seasons

All of that, by the way would total 399.14 fantasy points (not including turnovers). Allen scored 395.52 fantasy points last year.


Allen has the 3rd best odds of winning his first MVP crown (+800), and Buffalo has the 3rd best odds to win their first Super Bowl (+900).


In fact, over the last 3 seasons (2020-2022), the Josh Allen/Sean McDermott tandem has finished:


🟢 2nd, 3rd and 2nd in scoring

🟢 2nd, 5th and 2nd yards

🟢 11th, 5th and 8th in passing attempts

🟢 3rd, 9th and 7th in passing yards

🟢 3rd, 7th and 2nd in passing TDs

🟡 17th, 13th and 15th in rushing attempts

🟢 20th, 6th and 7th in rushing yards

🟡 15th, 7th and 15th in rushing TDs


Allen has been a top 2 fantasy QB in 3 straight seasons and health permitting—he is on the cover of Madden this year 😨—we should see more of the same in 2023, especially if the Bills land DeAndre Hopkins (they're the current favorites as of this writing). 👀


He's an elite QB 1 and annual threat to be THE QB 1.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 Still just 27 years old, Josh Allen remains a top 2 dynasty QB, currently going around pick 27 overall (early 3rd round)—and worth that cost—even in 1 QB dynasty startups.


He's a hold-for-the-next-decade if you roster him.


Redraft Leagues: 🟢 Josh Allen is currently the QB 3 behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, drafted around pick 27 overall (early 3rd round) in 2023 leagues. He's every bit worth that cost and could easily be fantasy's QB 1 for the 3rd time in 4 years.


Superflex Leagues: 🟢 Josh Allen is a top 2 asset in Superflex leagues and every bit worthy of the 1st or 2nd overall pick.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟢 Josh Allen is currently the QB 3 behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, drafted around pick 27 overall (early 3rd round) in 2023 leagues. He's every bit worth that cost and could easily be fantasy's QB 1 for the 3rd time in 4 years.


Max best ball exposure: 25%

🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Kyle Allen (QB)

Kyle Allen has proven himself to be a semi-capable backup QB at both the NFL and and fantasy football levels.


In 18 career games where he's thrown at least 25 passes with the Panthers (14 games), Texans (2) and Commanders (2) between 2018-2022, Allen has averaged:


⚫ 14 fantasy points per game

⚫ 36.7 pass attempts and 22.8 completions per game (62%)

⚫ 246.7 passing yards per game

⚫ 1.4 passing TDs per game (25 total)

⚫ 1.2 interceptions per game (21 total)

⚫ 0.2 rushing TDs per game (3 total)

⚫ 0.5 lost fumbles per game (9 total)


Allen scored 15 or more fantasy points in 8 of those 18 games (22%), with just as many games over 20 fantasy points (4) as games under 10 fantasy points (4).


Kyle Allen would need to beat incumbent QB 2 Matt Barkley and a Josh Allen injury—he is on the cover of Madden this year 😨—to enter the fantasy football chat.


But if he does, Kyle Allen would become a popular in-season waiver pick up and a possible 1QB league streamer during bye weeks, especially if the Bills land prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins (they're the current favorites as of this writing). 👀


But until then, Allen is off the radar.


Dynasty Leagues: 🔴 Kyle Allen does not belong on 1 QB rosters of any kind.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Kyle Allen does not belong on 1 QB rosters of any kind.


Superflex Leagues: 🔴 Kyle Allen would be a worthy waiver wire pickup in 2QB leagues if anything happened to Josh Allen. But he's not worth drafting unless your league is deep.


Best Ball Leagues: 🔴 Kyle Allen does not belong on 1 QB rosters of any kind.


Max best ball exposure: 0%


🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Matt Barkley (QB)

Matt Barkley has proven himself to be an uninspiring, replacement-level backup QB at both the NFL and and fantasy football levels.


In 8 career games where he's thrown at least 20 passes with the Bears (4 games), Bills (2) and Eagles (2) between 2013-2019 (none since then), Barkley has averaged just:


⚫ 10 fantasy points per game

⚫ 34.4 pass attempts and 20.4 completions per game (59%)

⚫ 245.5 passing yards per game

⚫ 1.3 passing TDs per game (10total)

⚫ 2 interceptions per game (16total)

⚫ 0 rushing TDs per game (0 total)

⚫ 0.4 lost fumbles per game (3 total)


Barkley had more games under 3 fantasy points (3) than he had games over 15 fantasy points (2) in that span.


Barkley would need to beat out free agent Matt Barkley for the QB 2 position and a Josh Allen injury—he is on the cover of Madden this year 😨—to maybe enter the fantasy football chat.


But even if he does, Barkley would remain nothing more than an uninspiring, low end QB 2.


Dynasty Leagues: 🔴 Matt Barkley does not belong on 1 QB rosters of any kind.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Matt Barkley does not belong on 1 QB rosters of any kind.


Superflex Leagues: 🔴 Matt Barkley would be a desperation waiver wire pickup in 2QB leagues if anything happened to Josh Allen. He's not worth drafting in any format.


Best Ball Leagues: 🔴 Matt Barkley does not belong on 1 QB rosters of any kind.


Max best ball exposure: 0%


Buffalo Bills Running Backs

🟢 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - James Cook (RB)

Devin Singletary skipped town for the Houston Texans, taking with him 215 touches (13.4 per game)— including 52 targets—that will need to find a new home.


Of course, free agent signing Damien Harris figures to handle many of those touches as Buffalo's "big back."


But dynamic 23-year-old (24 in September) James Cook—the Bills' 2nd round pick from Georgia last season—appears likely to take on an expanded role, making him a high-upside fantasy pick in one of the most explosive offenses in football.


Cook handled 110 touches—including 21 catches on 32 targets—as a rookie in 2022, turning them into 687 scrimmage yards (6.2 yards per touch compared to Singletary's 5.1 yards per touch) and 3 TDs.


After averaging just 6.9 nice touches per game as a rookie, there's some obvious room for growth here, particularly in the passing game for arguably the best receiving back in last year's draft class.


Cook did perform well in the tiny sample size we do have of him handling a larger workload.


In 5 games where Cook had 11 or more touches, he averaged:


⚫ 11.1 PPR points per game

⚫ 13 touches per game—including 1.8 catches on 2.6 targets per game

⚫ 80.6 scrimmage yards per game

⚫ 0.2 TDs per game (1 total)


And in the only 2 games where Cook handled more than 11 touches, he scored 16.5 PPR points on 20 touches and 17.8 PPR points on 12 touches.


Vegas sportsbooks seem to be anticipating a larger workload for Cook as well, setting his over/under at 4.5 rushing TDs (he had just 2 last year).


And if Josh Allen runs the ball less this year than in years past as has been reported—and as Vegas Sportbooks suggest with his rushing lines—then there should be more opportunity for Cook in the passing game as well.


Entering his age 24 season with what should be a larger workload in one of the best offenses in football, James Cook is best approached as an RB 2/3 with big time upside for more.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 James Cook is currently the RB 29 in dynasty startup drafts, drafted behind some surprising names like Zach Charbonnet, Isiah Pacheco and Devon Achane (not to mention Anthony Richardson and even Dalton Kincaid). I'd take Cook's upside over all of those in a startup draft.


Cook finished as fantasy's RB 44 last year despite being drafted as fantasy's RB 36, making it a "disappointing" rookie year for what most were expecting.


All of this is to say it's fair to wonder if there's a significant buy low window for Cook in dynasty leagues.


Redraft Leagues: 🟢 James Cook is currently drafted as fantasy's RB 30 around pick 97 overall (early 9th round). That's a great price to pay and low-risk investment for the upside that you get. Cook is among my favorite 9th round picks in 2023.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟢 James Cook is currently drafted as fantasy's RB 30 around pick 97 overall (early 9th round). That's a great price to pay and low-risk investment for the upside that you get. Cook is among my favorite 9th round picks in 2023.


Max best ball exposure: 25%

🟡 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Damien Harris (RB)

Devin Singletary skipped town for the Houston Texans, taking with him 215 touches (13.4 per game)— including 52 targets—that will need to find a new home.


That led to the signing of 26-year old free agent RB Damien Harris, the rival Patriots 3rd round pick from Alabama in 2019.


2nd year man James Cook—Buffalo's 2nd round pick last season—figures to assume a large chunk of the workload vacated by Singletary, but it's unlikely that the 5'11," 190 pound sophomore suddenly becomes a 3-down workhorse for the Bills, leaving room for Harris to operate as the team's "big back."


Buffalo RBs have handled between 344-380 touches in each of the last 3 seasons.


On average, Buffalo's RB 2 is receiving between 30-37% of those touches, or 103-141 touches per season.


At worst, that would put Harris on track for between 6-8 touches per game, leaving him on the borderline of flex consideration in most leagues, with the added upside of Harris likely serving as the team's goal line back.


(And that's assuming that Cook gets more run as the "RB1" than Harris does, no sure thing).


In 31 career games—including playoffs—where Harris has handled 10 or more touches, he's averaged:


⚫ 12.2 PPR points per game

⚫ 14.8 touches per game—including 1.1 catches on 1.4 targets per game

⚫ 74 scrimmage yards per game

⚫ 0.6 rushing TDs per game (20 total, has no receiving TDs)

⚫ 0.1 lost fumbles (2 total)


Underwhelmingly, Harris has been able to reach 15 or more PPR points in just 9 of those 31 games (29%) while landing below 10 PPR points in 11 of those 31 games (35%).


Harris has just as many games under 5 PPR points (2) as he has games over 18 PPR points (2).


Now entering his age 26 season, Harris is best approached as an RB 3/4 with some upside if he's able to work ahead of James Cook.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟡 Damien Harris is currently drafted as the RB 47 in dynasty startup leagues. Set to serve as a committee back for the remainder of his career, Harris is a mere "hold" for dynasty managers that are already rostering him.


You could attempt to "sell high" if any managers in your league believe he'll be Buffalo's RB 1 this season.


Redraft Leagues: 🟡 Damien Harris is currently drafted as the RB 38, around pick 116 overall (mid 10th round).


While he's certainly on my radar in that range, so is Antonio Gibson, Odell Beckham, Rashaad Penny, Devon Achane and Aaron Rodgers (not to mention Tyler Boyd and Zay Jones).


Still, Harris in an explosive offense with an unsettled backfield offers a lot of upside and very little downside in the mid 10th round.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Damien Harris is currently drafted as the RB 38, around pick 116 overall (mid 10th round).


While he's certainly on my radar in that range, so is Pat Freiermuth, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Antonio Gibson, Odell Beckham, Rashaad Penny, Geno Smith, Devon Achane and Aaron Rodgers (not to mention Tyler Boyd and Zay Jones).


Still, Harris in an explosive offense with an unsettled backfield offers a lot of upside and very little downside in the mid 10th round.


Max best ball exposure: 25%


🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Nyheim Hines (RB)

2022 was the worst year of Nyheim Hines' 5 year career, suffering new career lows—by far—in:


⚫ Touches (54; previous career low of 96)

⚫ Rushing attempts (24, previous career low of 52)

⚫ Rushing yards (33, previous career low of 199)

⚫ Rushing TDs (1, previous career low of 2)

⚫ Rushing 1st downs (2, previous career low of 15)

⚫ Targets (37, previous career low of 57)

⚫ Catches (30, previous career low of 40)

⚫ Receiving yards (241, previous career low of 310)

⚫ Receiving 1st downs (11, previous career low of 15)


He scored just 69.4 PPR points and finished as fantasy's RB 62 after 4 straight years of at least 105.9 PPR points and, at worst, an RB 48 finish.


Unfortunately for Hines, it looks like he'll stay in Buffalo after restructuring his contract in the middle of March, making it unlikely he's given a chance to make a fantasy impact behind 2022 2nd round pick James Cook and free agent Damien Harris.


Hines' will, at best, enter the season as the team's RB 3 and a key special teams player. He figures to serve as a direct backup to Cook and could come into PPR value if anything happens to the ballyhooed 2nd year man (Cook).


IF anything DID happen to Cook, Hines would figure to be a popular waiver wire pickup, as he has proven himself to be valuable fantasy asset in the past.


In 20 career games where Hines handled at least 10 touches, he's averaged:


⚫ 14.6 PPR points per game

⚫ 12.9 touches per game—including 5.1 catches on 6.1 targets per game

⚫ 70.7 scrimmage yards per game

⚫ 0.4 TDs per game (8 total)


Hines was able to score 16 or more PPR points in 7 of those 20 games (35%), including 4 games over 20 PPR points with a career high of 28.5.


Hines would become an instantly intriguing PPR flex option if anything happened to Cook.


But again, that's IF something happens to James Cook, meaning Hines doesn't belong on most "normal" sized fantasy rosters until then.


(The only other avenue to fantasy relevance would be if Hines gets released by Buffalo and lands a pass catching role somewhere else. But after restructuring his contract to stay in Buffalo, that no longer seems likely.)


Dynasty Leagues: 🟠 Entering his age 27 season, Hines currently goes undrafted among the top 277 players in dynasty startups. With two top 27 finishes on his 5-year resume, I personally still think Hines is at least worthy of an end-of-bench stash in dynasty leagues.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Nyheim Hines should not be drafted in normal-sized leagues. He is merely an intriguing in-season pickup if anything happened to James Cook.


Best Ball Leagues: 🔴 Nyheim Hines should not be drafted in normal-sized leagues.


Max best ball exposure: 0%


🔴 2023 Fantasy Football Preview - Latavius Murray (RB)

Out of nowhere, 2022 was the largest workload that Latavius Murray has handled since 2017, handling 198 touches—including 27 catches on 35 targets—for 892 scrimmage yards and 6 TDs, the 3rd most of his 9-year career.


He scored 11.9 PPR points per game to finish as fantasy's RB 31, his best landing since finishing as fantasy's RB 28 in 2019 (but on just 9.8 PPR points per game, which was actually more like RB 38).


It was a nice career revival for the 33 year-old vet but it's highly unlikely a sign of things to come for 2023.


The Raiders' 2013 6th round pick signed a one-year contract with Buffalo in May, a month and a half after the Bills signed 26-year-old Damien Harris to serve as the team's "big back" in a committee with 2nd year, 2nd round pick James Cook.


Murray—if he makes the 53 man roster in September—will likely serve as the direct backup to Harris, while Nyheim Hines—if he makes the 53 man roster in September—will likely serve as the direct backup to Cook.


Murray—if he makes the 53 man roster in September—will need a Damien Harris injury to come into fantasy football relevance.


In 88 career games where Murray has handled at least 10 touches, he's averaged:


⚫ 12.9 PPR points per game

⚫ 16.7 touches per game—including 2 catches on 2.5 targets per game

⚫ 75.5 scrimmage yards per game

⚫ 0.6 TDs per game (50 total)

⚫ 0.0 lost fumbles per game (just 2 in his entire career despite 1,700+ touches)


Murray has scored 15 or more PPR points in 27 of those 88 games (31%), but fewer than 10 PPR points in 36 of those 88 games (41%).


If anything happened to Harris, Murray—if he makes the 53 man roster in September—would enter the fantasy football radar as a low-end, unexciting RB 3/flex.


And that's IF anything were to happen to Harris—and IF Murray makes the 53 man roster in September.


Leave him on the waiver wire in your drafts.


Dynasty Leagues: 🔴 Entering his age 34 season, Latavius Murray goes undrafted in dynasty startup drafts. Don't change that.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Entering his age 34 season, Latavius Murray goes undrafted in fantasy football drafts. Don't change that.


Best Ball Leagues: 🔴 Entering his age 34 season, Latavius Murray goes undrafted in fantasy football drafts. Don't change that.


Max best ball exposure: 0%


Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers

🟢 WR Stefon Diggs 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

2022 was yet another dominant campaign for Stefon Diggs. He had:


⚫ 154 targets, the 5th most in the NFL and the 3rd most of his career


⚫ 108 catches, the 4th most in the NFL and the 2nd most of his career


⚫ 1429 yards, the 5th most in the NFL and the 2nd most of his career


⚫ 11 TDs, the 3rd most in the NFL and the most of his career


⚫ 74 receiving 1st downs, the 4th most in the NFL and the most of his career


He scored 19.8 PPR points per game and finished as fantasy's WR 4, both of which were the 2nd best end results of his 8-year career (he scored 20.5 PPR points per game as fantasy's WR 3 in 2020 after a 166 target, 127 catch, 1535 yard, 8 TD campaign).


Consistently dominant as can be, Diggs has now been fantasy's WR 3, WR 4, and WR 7 in 3 seasons of Josh Allen throwing him the football.

2023 fantasy football preview for every single player on the Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, James Cook, Damien Harris, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and more!

In 55 career games with Buffalo—including playoffs—where he's played at least 63% of the snaps, Diggs is averaging an elite:


⚫ 9.7 targets per game

⚫ 6.7 catches per game

⚫ 84.4 yards per game

⚫ 0.6 TDs per game (31 total)

⚫ 18.5 PPR points per game


Among the safest option in fantasy football, Diggs has scored 15 or more PPR points in 34 of 55 games with the Bills (61.8%), including an astounding 48 of 55 games (87.3%) over 10 PPR points.


He's also been among the most explosive, week-winning options in fantasy football, scoring 20 or more PPR points in 23 of 55 games (41.8%), including 4 games over 30 (7.3%)—2 of which went over 41.


Diggs is now entering his age 30 season but showing no real signs of slowing down. The biggest threat to Diggs 2023 campaign—aside from some possible hostility between Diggs and the Bills right now—is that they're currently the favorites (+250) to land prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins, which would certainly create a dent in Diggs' 28% share of Josh Allen targets.

2023 fantasy football preview for every single player on the Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, James Cook, Damien Harris, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and more!

Vegas Sportsbooks certainly seem to be anticipating a decline for Diggs, pegging him for just 1,125.5 yards (-105 over) despite never finishing below 1,225 yards in 3 seasons with Buffalo and Josh Allen possibly "running less" this year as has been reported.


Diggs also has an over/under of "just" 8.5 TD catches (-130 over) despite catching 10 and 11 over the past 2 seasons.


Still, only 11 WRs—and one you-know-who TE—eclipsed 1,125 receiving yards last season, and only 10 players caught more than 8 TD passes.


Even if DeAndre Hopkins makes his way to Buffalo, there will be plenty of Josh Allen love to go around in one of the best offenses in football.


Diggs remains a top-12 WR 1 with perennial top 5 upside.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟡 Entering his age 30 season, Diggs is a strong hold or trade target for contending teams, and a prime "sell high" candidate for those who are in a rebuilding position.


There *might* be a small "buy-low" window in your league if the current manager is worried about A) DeAndre Hopkins and/or B) the current drama between Diggs and Buffalo.


Redraft Leagues: 🟢 Stefon Diggs is currently the WR 5, drafted around pick 7 overall in 2023 drafts. The only names that are going after Diggs that I would consider before him are Austin Ekeler and Bijan Robinson, with AJ Brown deserving a look as well.


Depending on where you draft Diggs, Josh Allen is worthy of stacking consideration in the 2nd round, though it might be a bit early if your draft spot is 7th or later


Best Ball Leagues: 🟢 Stefon Diggs is currently the WR 5, drafted around pick 7 overall in 2023 drafts. The only names that are going after Diggs that I would consider before him are Austin Ekeler and Bijan Robinson, with AJ Brown deserving a look as well.


Depending on where you draft Diggs, Josh Allen is worthy of stacking consideration in the 2nd round, though it might be a bit early if your draft spot is 7th or later


Max best ball exposure: 25%

🟡 WR Gabe Davis 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

The good news? Gabe Davis set new career highs across the board in 2022, catching 48 of 93 targets for 836 yards and 7 TDs over 15 games as Buffalo's WR 2.


The bad news? It was a wholly disappointing campaign for the 2020 4th round pick, as he scored just 11.4 PPR points per game to finish as fantasy's WR 35 despite being drafted as fantasy's WR 26 in 2023 drafts.


WR 35 seems "fine," but not when you're 2nd in line for targets in a Josh Allen offense that finished 4th in scoring, 4th in yards, 14th in pass attempts, 8th in passing yards and 2nd in passing TDs.


Davis scored fewer than 10 PPR points in 10 of 17 games (59%) and hit 15 PPR points just 5 times in 17 games (29%).


Always with the flashy ceiling, Davis did sprinkle in some unpredictable, explosive performances of 32.1 PPR points, 21.3 PPR points, and 23.3 PPR points.


After 44 career games, Davis is averaging:


⚫ 9.9 PPR points per game

⚫ 4.9 targets per game

⚫ 2.7 catches per game

⚫ 45.1 yards per game

⚫ 0.5 TDs per game (20 total)


He's scored fewer than 10 PPR points in 25 of 44 career games (57%), but has also offered a sporadic, explosive ceiling, scoring 21 or more PPR points—including a 32.1 point career high—in 3 of 44 games (7%).


Still just 24 years old and entering the final year of his rookie contract (AKA looking for a flashy new deal), the UCF product will continue to offer unpredictable boom/bust viability in one of the best offenses in football.


The question is whether or not Davis will be Buffalo's WR 2 come kickoff, as the Bills are the current favorites (+250) to land prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins. 👀


If that happens, expect an obvious, significant reduction in Davis' targets (he had 62 and 63 in his first two years in the league), making him much more of a WR 4 than his current rank.


Vegas Sportsbooks seem to be anticipating a reduction in production for Davis, projecting him for 775.5 receiving yards (-105 over, -115 under) and under 6.5 TDs (-130) just one year after he produced 836 yards and 7 TDs.


Still, until something changes with Buffalo's depth chart, Davis is best approached as an unpredictable, boom/bust WR 3 in 2023.


And given the unpredictable hit-or-miss nature of Davis' game, he's a decidedly better "best ball" pick than a redraft selection (since you don't have to set lineups/predict good or bad games in best ball).


Dynasty Leagues: 🟡 Now entering his age 24 season, Gabe Davis is currently the WR 54 in dynasty startup drafts. He's an intriguing dynasty asset because...


On the one hand, you could consider him a "buy low" coming off a bad year and with DeAndre Hopkins possibly headed to town. What if Hopkins does not go to Buffalo? What if Davis lands a meaningful role when his contract expires after this season?


On the other hand, you could consider him a "sell high" as the current WR 2 with Hopkins possibly headed to town. What if Buffalo learned Davis is merely a role player?


Ultimately, if I roster Gabe Davis in dynasty, I'm putting him on the trade block to see what kind of discussions I can open up. And if nothing moves me, I'm equally fine hanging on to him, even understanding his stock might further fall.


Redraft Leagues: 🟠 Gabe Davis is currently the WR 41, drafted around pick 78 overall (mid 7th round). That cost itself is fine and might even be a value if you're expecting a step forward from the 24 year old.


In redraft leagues, I would likely shy away from Davis in this spot and instead opt for Kadarius Toney, D'Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, Cam Akers, Brandin Cooks or Deshaun Watson.


Only exception would be if I selected Josh Allen in the 2nd or 3rd round.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Gabe Davis is currently the WR 41, drafted around pick 78 overall (mid 7th round). That cost itself is fine and might even be a value if you're expecting a step forward from the 24 year old.


I'm fine with taking him there in best ball leagues while also diversifying my portfolio with Dallas Goedert, Kadarius Toney, D'Andre Swift, Jahan Dotson, Dalvin Cook, Cam Akers, Brandin Cooks and Deshaun Watson.


And if I selected Josh Allen in the 2nd or 3rd round, then I'm actively targeting Gabe Davis in the 7th.


Max best ball exposure: 20%

🟡 WR Khalil Shakir 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

Khalil Shakir was 7th in line for targets in 2022 as the 5th round rookie from Boise State predictably ran behind Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary and James Cook.


Shakir looked good when given the chance in 2022, catching 10 of 20 targets for 161 yards and 1 TD. A whopping 7 of his 10 catches went for first downs.


In fact, in the one game Shakir played more than 25 snaps (39, to be exact), he caught 3 of 5 Josh Allen targets for 75 yards and 1 TD, a grand total of 16.5 PPR points.


Not bad at all for a 5th round rookie.


Isaiah McKenzie (65 targets) left for Indianapolis, Devin Singletary (52 targets) left for Houston and Jamison Crowder (13 targets) left for the Giants, theoretically freeing up 130 targets and the WR 3 role in a Josh Allen offense that's finished top 3 in scoring and top 5 in yards in each of the last 3 seasons.


There will be fantasy football value for whoever seizes that role, a battle that will unfold among Shakir, free agent signees Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty, and 2023 5th round draft pick Justin Shorter.


Of course, it also must be noted that, as of this writing, the Buffalo Bills are also the favorites (+250) to land prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins, which would render Shakir et. al. fantasy irrelevent.


Ultimately, it's anyone's guess—for now—who will be the WR 3 in Buffalo come September 11th, but Shakir is good a bet as any, and that's worth something in the late rounds of deeper leagues.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟡 Khalil Shakir is currently the WR 86 in dynasty startup drafts. While that spot seems fair, it could also prove to be a significant value if the 23 year old is able to seize the WR 3 role. He's not someone to go out of your way to acquire, but it can't hurt to throw a 4th or 5th round rookie pick out there for him.


Redraft Leagues: 🟠 Khalil Shakir is currently the WR 86, selected around pick 196 overall (early 17th round). If your league drafts that many rounds—most don't—then he's absolutely worth a flier at that cost.


Otherwise, keep him flagged on your waiver watch list as a possible in-season pickup.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Khalil Shakir is currently the WR 86, selected around pick 196 overall (early 17th round). With "Buffalo WR 3" squarely within his range of possible outcomes—and the WR 2 role far from solidified—that's an awful lot of upside in the 17th round.


Shakir could very well flop—and honestly that's more likely than not—but so could everyone else in the 17th round. There's a lot of upside with minimal downside. That's what you want in best ball.


Max best ball exposure: 25%

🟡 WR Deonte Harty 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

2022 was an injury-marred, lost season for Deonte Harty—originally known as Deonte Harris—as he caught just 2 passes in 4 games, just one year after catching 36 of 59 targets for 570 yards (a strong 15.8 yards per catch) and 3 TDs as a member of the Saints in 2021.


The 25-year-old (26 in December) latched on with the Bills in mid-March, signing a two-year contract worth up to $13.5 million, including $5 million guaranteed.


The contract is significant enough to put Harty on the fantasy football radar as Buffalo's potential WR 3, and his lightning-fast speed will give the Bills a much needed burner to take to top off the defense—and create the occasional splash play.


Harty has a legitimate chance to emerge as Buffalo's WR 3 if he can beat out Khalil Shakir (2022 5th round pick), Justin Shorter (2023 5th round pick) and fellow free agent signing Trent Sherfield (who has a far inferior contract) for the role—unless, of course, the Bills land prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins, which they're currently favored to do (+250).


Over the last 3 seasons of the Josh Allen/Josh McDermott era, Buffalo WR 3s have played 37 snaps per game (Isaiah McKenzie, 2022), 43 snaps per game (Cole Beasley, 2021) and 45 snaps per game (Cole Beasley, 2020).


That said, Harty has played more than 33 offensive snaps in just 1 game in his career.


In 15 career games where Hardy has played at least 20 offensive snaps, he's averaged:


⚫ 7.3 PPR points per game

⚫ 4.9 targets per game

⚫ 3.1 catches per game

⚫ 34.1 yards per game

⚫ 0.1 TDs per game (2 total)


Small sample size, but in 4 career games where he played at least 27 snaps, Harty averaged:


⚫ 10.3 PPR points per game

⚫ 6 targets per game

⚫ 3.8 catches per game

⚫ 47.5 yards per game

⚫ 0.3 TDs per game (1 total)


And all of that damage was done on Saints offenses that finished 25th and 30th in pass attempts, and 19th and dead last in passing yards.


In other words, Harty was playing limited snaps on bad offenses that barely threw the ball, but still did enough to cause some damage to opposing defenses.


Now he has a chance to land the WR 3 role on a Josh Allen offense that has finished each of the last 3 seasons:


🟢 11th, 5th and 8th in passing attempts

🟢 3rd, 9th and 7th in passing yards

🟢 3rd, 7th and 2nd in passing TDs


Predictably boom/bust as a downfield threat averaging 12.4 yards per catch in his career, Harty scored 10 or more PPR points in 2 of 4 games where he played at least 27 snaps—including a career-high of 19.9—but he also fell below 7 PPR points in the other 2 games.


If he's able to land the WR 3 role in Buffalo, expect a few random, unexpected, unpredictable big games from the 2019 UDFA from "Assumption" college—definitely a university we're all familiar with.


That makes him a decidedly better "best ball" pick than a redraft asset (since you don't have to set lineups/predict good or bad games in best ball).


Khalil Shakir seems the early favorite for the WR 3 role, but Harty is a name to keep on your radar in 2023.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟠 Harty is currently undrafted in dynasty startup drafts among the top 277 selections. Given the big play ability he brings to a Josh Allen offense with no clear WR 3, I think he's absolutely worth stashing at the end of dynasty benches.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Harty currently goes undrafted in 2023 fantasy football leagues. That should remain the case for normal sized leagues, but he's a name I'd recommend starring on your waiver wire watch list as a potential in season pickup.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Deonte Harty currently goes undrafted in 2023 best ball leagues. Given the big play ability he brings to a Josh Allen offense with no clear WR 3, I think Harty is a solid last-round flier to draft from time to time.


Max best ball exposure: 15%


🔴 WR Trent Sherfield 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

2022 was—easily— the best year of Trent Sherfield's 5-year career, setting new career highs in targets (51), catches (30), yards (417) and TDs (2).


The 27-year old journeyman WR scored 83.7 PPR points to finish as fantasy's WR 87.


He signed a one-year contract with Buffalo in March and will have an opportunity to compete with Khalil Shakir (2022 5th round pick), Justin Shorter (2023 5th round pick) and Deonte Harty (a fellow, higher priced free agent) for the WR 3 role—if the Bills don't sign prized free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins, which they're currently favored to do (+250).


Over the last 3 seasons of the Josh Allen/Josh McDermott era, Buffalo WR 3s have played 37 snaps per game (Isaiah McKenzie, 2022), 43 snaps per game (Cole Beasley, 2021) and 45 snaps per game (Cole Beasley, 2020).


In 11 career games where Sherfield has played at least 45 offensive snaps, he's averaged just:


⚫ 6.7 PPR points per game

⚫ 4.4 targets per game

⚫ 2.5 catches per game

⚫ 0.2 TDs per game (2 total)


The UDFA from Vanderbilt has just one career game over 15 PPR points, with 30 career games under 10 PPR points, including 27 career games under 6 PPR points.


The Buffalo Bills can do a lot better in their search for a longshot WR.


And so can you.


Keep him on your radar as a possible in-season pickup, but don't think about spending a draft pick on him.


Dynasty Leagues: 🔴 Trent Sherfield currently goes undrafted in all fantasy football leagues. Keep it that way.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Trent Sherfield currently goes undrafted in all fantasy football leagues. Keep it that way.


Best Ball Leagues: 🔴 Trent Sherfield currently goes undrafted in all fantasy football leagues. Keep it that way.


Max best ball exposure: 0%


🔴 WR Justin Shorter 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

The Buffalo Bills selected Florida WR Justin Shorter with the 150th overall pick in the 2023 draft.


Shorter is anything but, measuring in at 6'4" and 223 pounds and bringing "great size and physicality...(that's) capable of breaking multiple tacklers" per film guru Jonathan Chapman.


That said, the 23-year-old rook also brings a wholly disappointing collegiate career—he scored just 8 total TDs in 5 collegiate years despite being a gigantic human being—and "bad short area quickness" despite being a 5-star recruit at one point in his younger days.


There's some intrigue to Shorter's landing spot, a Josh Allen offense that's finished 11th, 5th and 8th in passing attempts, 3rd, 9th and 7th in passing yards, and 3rd, 7th and 2nd in passing TDs over the last three seasons, yet an offense with growing question marks in the WR room:


Stefon Diggs is entering his age 30 season and appears to be disgruntled with the franchise.


Gabe Davis flopped in his first year as a full time starter, leaving the door wide open for a new WR 2 to emerge.


Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder left for different teams in free agency, leaving the WR 3 role up for grabs between Shorter (maybe), Khalil Shakir (last year's 5th round pick) and unaccomplished free agents Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield.


Still, nothing about Shorter's profile suggest he'll do anything to command the WR 3 (or even WR 4) role, while Shakir showed promise last season, the Bills gave Harty a bigger-than-expected contract, and Buffalo used their 1st round pick on Dalton Kincaid, who's basically a big slot WR in a tight end's body.


I wouldn't bet on Shorter making any fantasy noise in year 1, but he's at least worth a last round rookie pick in dynasty leagues.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟠 Justin Shorter currently checks in at #48 on the BBFF Rookie Rankings. I wouldn't bet on Shorter making any fantasy noise in year 1, and isn't likely to do anything fantasy relevant in his career.


But neither is anyone you're drafting in the last round of rookie drafts. You could do worse for a last-round flier.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Justin Shorter does not belong on 2023 fantasy football rosters.


Best Ball Leagues: 🔴 Justin Shorter does not belong on 2023 fantasy football rosters.


Max best ball exposure: 0%


Buffalo Bills Tight Ends

🟠 TE Dawson Knox 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

2022 was a bit of a step back for Dawson Knox. After catching 49 of 71 targets for 587 yards and 9 TDs to score 10.9 PPR points per game and finish as fantasy's TE 11 in 2021, Knox caught 48 of 65 passes for 517 yards and 6 TDs to score 9 PPR points per game and finish as fantasy's TE 14 in 2022.


Still, they were the 2nd highest marks across the board for the 4-year vet and, after signing a contract extension last year that keeps him in Buffalo through at least 2025, the 26-year-old (27 in November) Knox should remain involved in one of the best offenses in football even despite Buffalo using their 1st round pick on a tight end (more on that in a minute).


The 2019 3rd round pick from Mississippi has averaged 58 offensive snaps per game over the last two years as Buffalo's clear-cut TE 1. And in 16 career games where he's played at least 58 offensive snaps, Knox averaged:


⚫ 10.4 PPR points per game

⚫ 4.6 targets per game

⚫ 3.5 catches per game

⚫ 36.3 yards per game

⚫ 0.6 TDs per game (9 total)


That said, he's been hit or miss as a weekly fantasy option, scoring 18 or more PPR points in 4 of those 16 games (25%)—including 2 games over 20—while also scoring fewer than 10 PPR points in 10 of those 16 games (63%).


The Bills traded up to spend the 26th overall pick on Utah Tight End Dalton Kincaid, who's widely expected to basically be a big slot receiver for the Bills—Buffalo has said so themselves.


While that's certainly a threat to Knox's target share, it's also worth noting that:


A) they basically play different positions, at least for now. And...


B) Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey said "We're nowhere close to knowing what the big picture is going to be because we have to learn (Kincaid) and he has to learn us."


In other words, it's no sure thing that Kincaid makes a gigantic year-1 dent (most rookie tight ends don't). And if he does, it's more likely to come from the Isaiah McKenzie/Jamison Crowder role (4-5 targets per game) than the Dawson Knox role.


Still, to be on the safe side, let's look at Knox's numbers when playing 50 offensive snaps per game, which is in line with his career average.


Over 31 career games where Knox has played at least 50 offensive snaps, he's averaged:


⚫ 9.5 PPR points per game

⚫ 4.5 targets per game

⚫ 3.2 catches per game

⚫ 36.9 yards per game

⚫ 0.5 TDs per game (14 total)


Clearly boom/bust even with twice the sample size, Knox has scored 18 or more PPR points in 5 of those 31 games (16%), including 3 games over 20 (high of 21.8), but fewer than 10 PPR points in 20 of those 31 games (65%).


For what it's worth, Vegas Sportsbooks are expecting another step back from Knox statistically, pegging him for over/under 425.5 yards—which would have been just the 22nd "most" among TEs last year—and 4.5 touchdowns—which would be the 3rd most in his 5 year career.


Ultimately, Knox is best approached as a boom/bust TE 2 that will offer the occasional, unpredictable TE 1 streamer week. He's a "fine" TE 2 option in best ball, and waiver wire fodder in redraft.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟠 Entering his age 27 season, Dawson Knox is currently the TE 27 in dynasty startup drafts. He's merely a "hold" TE 2 for current managers.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Dawson Knox is currently the TE 22, drafted around pick 176 overall (mid 15th round) in 2023 drafts. It's Travis Kelce or bust in redraft—I can understand a case for Mark Andrews or TJ Hockenson—and I wouldn't bother drafting Knox.


Rather than a roster mainstay, he belongs on the waiver wire as an occasional upside streaming option.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟠 Dawson Knox is currently the TE 22, drafted around pick 176 overall (mid 15th round) in 2023 drafts. He's a fine TE 2 or TE 3 option in best ball at that cost—especially if you've drafted Josh Allen.


Max best ball exposure: 15%

🟢 TE Dalton Kincaid 2023 Fantasy Football Preview

In a surprising maneuver, the Buffalo Bills traded up with the Jaguars to select Utah TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 draft.


Basically a gigantic slot receiver, Kincaid played nearly half of his snaps in the slot at Utah, a role that's wide open in Buffalo following the departures of Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder—who did little to replace Cole Beasley anyways.


Reporters and Bills brass alike have publicly stated they view the 23-year-old (24 in October) as a "receiving tight end" and it seems to only be a matter of when—not if—Kincaid will seize the slot receiver role and start terrorizing defenses.


In 3 years (46 games) as the Bills' slot receiver between 2019-2021, Cole Beasley averaged a strong:


⚫ 11.9 PPR points per game

⚫ 7.1 targets per game

⚫ 5 catches per game

⚫ 53 yards per game

⚫ 0.2 TDs per game (11 total)


He scored 10 or more PPR points in 25 of those 46 games (54%), including 7 games over 20 PPR points (15%).


11.9 PPR points per game would have made for a TE5 finish behind only Travis kelce, George Kittle, TJ Hockenson and Mark Andrews last year, by the way.


Obviously fantasy football doesn't quite work that way, but it still goes to show the opportunity available in the Bills offense as a matchup-making big slot receiver, especially considering that Gabe Davis did very little to establish himself as a legit WR 2 last year.


In other words, it's not out of the question for Kincaid to emerge as Josh Allen's 2nd option for targets, an appealing proposition for an offense that's finished each of the last 3 seasons:


🟢 11th, 5th and 8th in passing attempts

🟢 3rd, 9th and 7th in passing yards

🟢 3rd, 7th and 2nd in passing TDs


It's no sure thing that Kincaid makes a real year 1 dent—most rookie "tight ends" don't—especially considering the remaining presence of Dawson Knox and Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey's recent (May) comments that "we're nowhere close to knowing what the big picture is going to be because we have to learn (Kincaid) and he has to learn us."


Still, Kincaid is a very exciting dynasty rookie pick and a better bet than most rookie TEs would be to make some serious year 1 noise.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 An exciting dynasty prospect, Dalton Kincaid currently checks in at #8 in the BBFF Rookie Rankings. He's most commonly drafted as the TE 7 in dynasty startup drafts, behind only Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson, George Kittle and Dallas Goedert.


Redraft Leagues: 🟠 Dalton Kincaid is currently the TE 11, drafted around pick 126 in 2023 fantasy drafts (mid 11th round). In redraft leagues, Kincaid is best approached as a TE 2 with real in-season streaming upside, but I'd rather using my 11th round pick on Khalil Herbert, Skyy Moore, Elijah Mitchell, Darnell Mooney, Jamaal Williams, Jerick McKinnon, or Michael Gallup.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Dalton Kincaid is currently the TE 11, drafted around pick 126 in 2023 fantasy drafts (mid 11th round). In best ball leagues, I'd much rather have Kincaid as my TE 2 than my TE 1 and, although I'm fine with spending an 11th round pick on Kincaid in best ball, there's some real competition for consideration in the 11th round:


Khalil Herbert, Skyy Moore, Elijah Mitchell, Darnell Mooney, Jamaal Williams, Jared Goff, Jerick McKinnon, Michael Gallup, Jonathan Mingo and Russell Wilson are all 11th round picks.


Max best ball exposure: 15%

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