Baker Mayfield or Caleb Williams: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 14, 2025 season)

NOTE: This content is for a previous week of fantasy football. But don't fear!

• View our latest fantasy football blogs here.

• Want your start/sit questions answered live and for free? Subscribe to our YouTube channel and join our live stream during every week of the fantasy football season!

• To get on-demand answers to any of your fantasy football questions, sign up to join BBFF and get access to all the tools as well as our private Discord server.

It's do-or-die time. The playoffs are on the line, and you may have to choose between Baker Mayfield or Caleb Williams to make it in. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

Have a start/sit dilemma that needs answering? Each week during the 2025 NFL season, we'll be going LIVE on YouTube to discuss your start/sit questions. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and hit that notification bell so you don't miss out!

Game Scripts

The Buccaneers are entering this game as promising 8-point home favorites with a strong projected team total of 25.5 points, the 4th highest among all 28 teams on the week 14 slate. The promising spread suggests a potentially run-heavy approach while the strong projected team total suggests plenty of touchdown opportunities.

The Bears are entering this game as uncomfortable 6-point road underdogs with a low projected team total of 19.0 points, the 9th fewest among all 28 teams on the week 14 slate. The uncomfortable spread suggests a potentially pass-heavy approach while the low projected team total suggests touchdown opportunities will be limited.

Positional Matchups

After 12 games, the Saints present a subpar matchup for QBs, allowing the 11th most passing TDs (1.67 per game) while limiting them to the 6th fewest passing yards (202.67 per game), 9th fewest rushing yards (15.25 per game), 12th fewest rushing TDs (0.08 per game) and 13th fewest fantasy points (15.63 per game). 7 QBs in 12 games — Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Jaxson Dart, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford — have scored 15+ fantasy points against the Saints.

After 12 games, the Packers present a tough matchup for QBs, holding them to the 7th fewest passing yards (203.17 per game), 9th fewest passing TDs (1.25 per game), 2nd fewest rushing yards (10.33 per game) and 6th fewest fantasy points per game (14.16). Just 6 QBs in 12 games — Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Joe Flacco (Bengals), Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff — have been able to reach 15+ fantasy points against the Packers.

Baker Mayfield: Bottom Line

I expect Baker Mayfield to finish, on average, around 14–18 fantasy points on ~30–34 pass attempts, ~210–235 yards, 1–2 passing TDs, 0–1 INT, and ~10–20 rushing yards in a moderately efficient, TD-dependent spot for a favored home QB in a likely run-leaning script.

Caleb Williams: Bottom Line

I expect Caleb Williams to finish, on average, around 15–19 fantasy points on ~33–37 pass attempts, ~220–245 passing yards, 1–2 passing TDs, 0–1 INT, plus ~20–30 rushing yards with a small chance at a rushing TD in a likely pass-heavy script.

Should you start Baker Mayfield or Caleb Williams?

I'm normally a bet-on-talent guy, and I'm the opinion that Baker Mayfield is, right now, the more talented player of the two. But it's tough to look at the game environments and think that Baker is going to have the volume to justify starting him, whereas Caleb Williams will surely need to make plays in the passing game to keep this game competitive - and, if not, hopefully come through in garbage time. I think there's more juice there. Hold your breath and hope it works out.

Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025

Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

Sign up to Basement Brewed Fantasy Football today and start making smarter lineup decisions that can dominate through the 2025 NFL season.