Christian Watson or Deebo Samuel: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 15, 2025 season)

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Welcome to the first week of the playoffs! To win your matchup and advance to the semifinals, you may have to choose between Christian Watson or Deebo Samuel. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

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Game Scripts

The Packers are entering this game as slim 2-point road favorites with a mediocre projected team total of 23.0 points, the 16th "most" among all 32 teams on the week 15 slate. The narrow spread suggests a balanced offensive approach while the mediocre projected team total suggests modest touchdown opportunities.

The Commanders are entering this game as slim 2-point road underdogs with a mediocre projected team total of 22.5 points, the 14th fewest among all 32 teams on the week 15 slate. The narrow spread suggests a balanced offensive approach while the mediocre projected team total suggests modest touchdown opportunities. With two terrible defenses, Commanders @ Giants has a strong over/under of 47.5 points with both teams sporting solid projected team totals of 22 or more, giving this game the look of a sneaky shootout that should offer no shortage of fantasy football fireworks. This is a game to target in week 15.

Positional Matchups

Patrick Surtain and the Broncos present a tough matchup for WRs, allowing the 12th most catches but holding them to the 14th fewest yards, fewest touchdowns (just 0.38 per game), 9th fewest PPR points per game and fewest PPR points per catch (2.30). 13 WRs in 13 games have been able to reach 10+ PPR points against Denver, but just 4 of them have been able to reach 15+ points.

The Giants present a mouthwatering matchup for WRs, allowing the 5th most catches, 4th most yards, 7th most touchdowns and 3rd most PPR points per game. 11 WRs in 13 games have scored 15+ PPR points against the Giants.

Christian Watson: Bottom Line

I expect Christian Watson to finish, on average, around 12–16 PPR points on ~5–8 targets, ~3–5 catches, ~55–80 receiving yards, and 0–1 touchdown in a tough matchup against Patrick Surtain and a Broncos defense that erases WR scoring upside. Averaging 18.4 PPR points per game over his last 4 games, Watson is a fringe WR 1/2 right now. That said, there's plenty of downside this week in a date with Patrick Surtain and the Broncos.

Deebo Samuel: Bottom Line

I expect Deebo Samuel to finish, on average, around 13–17 PPR points on ~6–8 targets, ~4–6 catches, a carry or two, and strong all-purpose TD upside in this sneaky shootout and mouthwatering WR matchup. He's a WR 2 with WR 1 upside in this mouthwatering matchup and lowkey shootout. He scored 22.6 PPR points against these Giants way back in week 1, albeit with Jayden Daniels.

Should you start Christian Watson or Deebo Samuel?

There's enough downside risk with Christian Watson that gives me pause, even though he's been running hot of late. I would rather take my risks, both from a floor and ceiling perspective, on Deebo Samuel to advance to the next round of the playoffs.

Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025

Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

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