Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 1, 2025)

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When you're facing a tough start/sit decision on your fantasy football team, you may end up having to choose between Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

Historical Player Data

	Dallas Goedert	Jake Ferguson
Floor (75% of games)	8+ PPR points	7+ PPR points
Median (50% of games)	11+ PPR points	11+ PPR points
Ceiling (25% of games)	14+ PPR points	15+ PPR points
Through the Roof (Top 10% of games)	17+ PPR points	19+ PPR points

Game Scripts

With a wide 7 point spread in favor of the defending Super Bowl Champions, Cowboys at Eagles projects as a possible blowout in favor of the hometown Eagles. The spread suggests Philadelphia is likely to enjoy positive game script and, as a result, a balanced — if not run-heavy — offensive approach. On the flip side, the spread suggests Dallas is likely to suffer negative game script and, as a result, increase their passing volume at the expense of their rushing volume as they try to keep pace with the division rival Eagles.

Dallas’ subpar implied point total — they’re tied with the Giants and Raiders for the 4th lowest team total on the entire week 1 slate — suggests they’ll struggle to find the end zone, capping the ceiling of their fantasy-relevant players. Their rushing attack could suffer some of the worst volume they’ll handle all season, while their pass catchers might enjoy a nice boost in target volume.

Dallas Goedert: Bottom Line

On a team with the slate’s top implied total but a likely run-leaning script, Goedert profiles as a low-end TE1/strong TE2 on efficiency more than volume—think 9(ish) PPR points. Dallas suppresses TE yardage, but they did allow the 6th-most TE TDs last year, so a red-zone score is his path to 15+.

Jake Ferguson: Bottom Line

Expect a usable floor from volume in a pass-leaning script, but Pickens’ arrival and a TE-stingy Philly defense cap the juice — Ferguson profiles as a fringe TE1/solid TE2 (~8–12 PPR). An (unlikely) touchdown is his path to 15+ and a winning week.

Should I start Dallas Goedert or Jake Ferguson?

Despite the game script favoring the Eagles run game and the Cowboys pass game heavily, I would still start Dallas Goedert.

Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025

Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

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