Daniel Jones or Baker Mayfield: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 12, 2025 season)

When you're facing a tough start/sit decision on your fantasy football team, you may end up having to choose between Daniel Jones or Baker Mayfield. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

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Game Scripts

The Colts are entering this game as slim 3-point road underdogs with a decent projected team total of 23.75 points, the 12th highest among all 28 teams on the week 12 slate. The narrow spread suggests a balanced offensive approach while the decent projected team total suggests serviceable touchdown opportunities. With a healthy over/under of 50.5 points and both teams sporting top 12 projected team totals, Colts @ Chiefs projects as a possible shootout with no shortage of touchdown opportunities and fantasy football fireworks.

The Buccaneers are entering this game as uncomfortable 7-point road underdogs with a subpar projected team total of 21.5 points, the 11th fewest among all 28 teams on the week 12 slate. The uncomfortable spread suggests a potentially pass-heavy approach while the subpar projected team total suggests limited touchdown opportunities. Buccaneers @ Rams DOES have a strong over/under of 49.5 points, suggesting a sliver of shootout potential if the Bucs can exceed their modest scoring expectations.

Positional Matchups

After 10 games, the Chiefs present an interesting matchup for QBs. On the optimistic hand, they're bleeding the 6th most QB rushing yards and most QB rushing TDs (0.50 per game). On the pessimistic hand, they're holding QBs to the 5th fewest passing yards and 3rd fewest passing TDs. Ultimately, they're limiting QBs to the 13th fewest fantasy points per game (16.05). Just 4 QBs in 10 games — Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, Josh Allen — have been able to reach 13 fantasy points against the Chiefs.

After 10 games, the Rams present a subpar matchup for QBs, allowing the 11th most passing yards while limiting them to the 8th fewest passing TDs, 11th fewest rushing yards, 14th fewest rushing TDs and 6th fewest fantasy points per game (14.58). Just 4 QBs in 10 games — Jalen Hurts, Mac Jones (x2), Trevor Lawrence — have been able to reach even just 12+ fantasy points against the Rams.

Daniel Jones: Bottom Line

I expect Daniel Jones to finish, on average, around 17–21 fantasy points on ~31–36 pass attempts (~245–285 passing yards), 1–2 passing TDs, 0–1 INT, and ~15–25 rushing yards with ~0–1 rushing TD.

Baker Mayfield: Bottom Line

I expect Baker Mayfield to finish, on average, around 15–19 fantasy points on ~33–38 pass attempts (~225–255 yards), 1–2 passing TDs, 0–1 INT, and ~10–20 rushing yards.

Should you start Daniel Jones or Baker Mayfield?

Neither has the best matchup here, but the game environment - and slightly higher rushing floor - for Daniel Jones would make him my selection here.

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Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

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