Jared Goff or Geno Smith: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 4, 2025 season)

When you're facing a tough start/sit decision on your fantasy football team, you may end up having to choose between Jared Goff or Geno Smith. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

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Game Scripts

The Lions are entering week 4 as 9.5 point home favorites with a strong implied team total of 27 points — the 3rd most among all 32 teams playing football this weekend — suggesting plenty of touchdown opportunities and fantasy football fireworks. The two-score spread suggests supremely positive game script that will lead to a spike in rushing volume at the expense of passing volume as the Lions look to run out the clock in the 2nd half. Jared Goff has thrown fewer than 29 passes in each of the last 2 games, a trend that could continue in this blowout win. That's good news for Lions' ball carriers — particularly David Montgomery — and suggests Lions' pass catchers will need to be highly efficient to pay off. Still, with a high implied point total that suggests plenty of touchdowns, this is an offense you want exposure to in week 4.

With a strong 47.5 point over/under — tied for the 3rd highest among all 16 games on the slate — and both teams sporting top 14 implied team totals of 23 points or more, Bears at Raiders looks like a contest that will feature plenty of touchdown opportunities and fantasy football fireworks. This is a game you want exposure to in your week 4 fantasy football lineups.

Positional Matchups

The Browns present a mediocre matchup for QBs, allowing the 6th most passing touchdowns but otherwise holding them to the 5th fewest passing yards, 7th fewest rushing yards and 15th fewest fantasy points per game (15.28).

The Bears present a mouthwatering matchup for QBs, holding them to the 8th fewest rushing yards but otherwise bleeding the 7th most passing yards, most passing TDs, 5th most rushing TDs and 5th most fantasy points per game (21.29).

Jared Goff: Bottom Line

High-end QB2/low-end QB1 in a positive script with likely muted volume. Expect Jared Goff ~14–19 fantasy points on ~24–30 pass attempts.

Geno Smith: Bottom Line

Boom/bust QB2 with QB1 upside in a high-scoring game; matchup lifts TD expectation but volatility remains. Expect Geno Smith ~17–21 fantasy points on ~30–36 pass attempts.

Should you start Jared Goff or Geno Smith?

When the upside is enough that you can embrace the volatility, I'm of the opinion you should play it. That's not to say that the Lions won't score through the air, but the Raiders feel more likely to. Give me Geno Smith this week.

Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025

Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

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