NFL DFS: Week 2 Review (DraftKings)
Looking back at Week 2
Last week, I mentioned that I typically play just one cash lineup and one GPP lineup per week. Well, DraftKings apparently threw together a free contest for beating some celebrities in the milly maker in week one, and I had four tickets in that contest. So, naturally, I took the opportunity to put together 20 lineups and enter the $1 20-max-entry large tournament to help illustrate what that process might look like. Still one cash lineup though - and always will be!
Generally speaking, with the strategy I employ in GPPs, if the chalk does well, I do not. The thing I'm targeting most is what I like to call win equity. Others might call that having a wide range of outcomes. Any GPP lineup I build, I'm building to try and place in the top 1% of the entries - so even when I'm playing a "chalkier" stack when entering multiple lineups, I'm differentiating with players that are going super low owned as one offs. (Example: If I'm playing four players from Falcons/Cowboys, I'm jamming in David Montgomery as a RB to differentiate.)
I've put together a full spreadsheet to outline how I targeted these lineups - which I built by hand. On one tab, I showcase the games I stacked (as 2-3 players on one team and 1 player from the other team as a run back), plus which team had the larger side of that stack. On the other tab was my exposure to individual players, both within a stack and as one-offs, plus their ownership percentage, my leverage, and their PPD (point per dollar) values in the tournament. If you'd like more information on this process, hit me up on Twitter.
Results: I had five lineups cash out of 20 (again, chalk does good, I tend to do bad), leading to a net loss of $10.
My Cash lineup
(played in various double ups - ownership and cash line based on GIANT $5 Double Up as largest cash contest entered)
QB: Kyler Murray ($6100 - 45.11% owned - 33.14 points)
RB: Ezekiel Elliott ($8200 - 44..57% owned - 23.2 points)
RB: Derrick Henry ($7900 - 58.11% owned - 8.4 points)
RB - Flex: Jonathan Taylor ($5700 - 50.93% owned - 22 points)
WR: DeAndre Hopkins ($7700 - 13.73% owned - 20.8 points)
WR: Parris Campbell ($4500 - 17.03% owned - 0.7 points - literally blew up his knee)
WR: Diontae Johnson ($4500 - 27.59% owned - 23.2 points)
TE: Jordan Reed ($2600 - 12.84% - 24 points)
DEF: Rams ($2800 - 10.54% owned - 7 points)
Derrick Henry was a bust. Parris Campbell busted his knee. And yet, here we are again, beating the cash line by nearly 30 points. How? You take the news that George Kittle is out and pivot to a super cheap Jordan Reed, knowing there's really nowhere else to go but here. The risk was there, obviously, because it's Jordan Reed. But he was so cheap that all he really needed was a few catches before he got hurt - and then he didn't and smashed.
Total points: 162.44
Cash line: 132.64
Result: Comfortably cashed in all double ups, resulting in a small profit for the week
Players from last week's picks that didn't end up in my lineups
Since I played 20 lineups in GPPs + one Cash lineup, I had exposure to nearly every player listed. There were only three players I did not have exposure to: Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs (simply didn't build a stack with Buffalo) and Jonnu Smith, who I actually had in a few GPP lineups before switching him out to move up to Hunter Henry or down to Logan Thomas (yikes).
A beer to celebrate two straight profitable weeks
I really did debate drinking another Surly Overrated to drown my sorrows over that Monday Night game, but this is about celebrating, not crying! (I'm over it, I swear.)
Instead, let's enjoy the beauty and the consistency that is a Dogfish Head 90 Minute Imperial IPA as we look towards another week of profit next week.
With two weeks in the books, it's time to prepare for week three! Be sure to follow along by subscribing below, joining us on Facebook, and enjoying some banter with us on Twitter: Derek Devereaux (author), Mikey Henninger (owner/writer/editor), JJ Gosh (writer).