NFL DFS: Week 4 Picks (DraftKings)
Updated: Oct 4, 2020
Welcome to week 4 of the NFL season! Each week, we’ll be previewing the main slate on DraftKings. Our philosophy with these selections is to provide you with solid floor plays with some upside to start your roster construction, with potential GPP pivots for even further upside in tournaments.
If you'd like to see how we did in our previous weeks, you can find that here:
Please note that the authors of this post are also players of daily fantasy sports, and the selections they make when creating their rosters may or may not include players listed below. You can find Derek Devereaux on DraftKings via the username DerekDevereaux.
This week’s lineup building beer of choice
Vernacular Brewing Company - 414 Lager (collaboration with 414 Milwaukee)
Representing the #414 more than any other beer in history, the 414 Lager collection comes in collectible themed cans - from the Milwaukee Brewers, to the Milwaukee Bucks, to the American collection, the special Firefighters edition and so much more. It also helps that the beer is phenomenal. If you're in the Milwaukee area, this is a must get - and they announce all of their special-edition cans on their Facebook page so you can find the ones you want. (Disclaimer: The owner of Vernacular Brewing Company is a relative of the writer of this article. This doesn't change how good the beer is, though.)
All lines via Westgate, current as of Friday afternoon.
IND -2.5 @ DET, 43 total (opened at 45)
NO -3 @ DET, 54 total (opened at 56)
ARI -3 @ CAR, 51 total (no change)
JAX @ CIN -2.5, 49 total (opened at 48)
CLE @ DAL -4.5, 56 total (opened at 54)
MIN @ HOU -3.5, 53.5 total (opened at 49.5)
SEA -5.5 @ MIA, 54 total (no change)
LAC @ TB -6.5, 42.5 total (opened at 45.5)
BAL -14 @ WAS, 45.5 total (opened at 52)
NYG @ LAR -13.5, 48 total (opened at 47)
BUF -3.5 @ LV, 52.5 total (opened at 49.5)
Favorite game to target
It's another week with a ton of high totals, with half of the games currently showing over 50. I think the sneakiest of these games is probably the Minnesota/Houston game, which has been bet up four points since opening. On the other games...
New Orleans/Detroit: The Saints are missing a bunch of pieces, and everyone is going to know it. I think this game will end up being popular, especially on the Detroit side + Alvin Kamara. You'll hear a lot of chatter on it, I suspect, and it may end up being one of the chalkier stacks in GPPs.
Arizona/Carolina: Can Carolina really keep up with Arizona? I'm not so convinced. I think this total might be high.
Cleveland/Dallas: If it weren't for the developments in the NO/DET game, this would be the next logical chalk game. Both teams have offensive weapons. One thing to note, though, is that the Browns have shown a tendency to stick with, and really hammer, the run early in games. If they do that, it means fewer chunk plays, and fewer chunk plays tend to drop totals as drives take longer.
Seattle/Miami: See Arizona/Carolina. Do we trust Miami to keep up here? I think they could moreso than Carolina can, but it's still lower on my odds to happen.
Quarterback - I promise this doesn't include Trubisky this time
Dak Prescott, $7200, DAL (vs. CLE)
Dallas has been running a TON of plays, and Dak has been the primary beneficiary, slinging the ball a total of 104 times the past two shootout weeks. His defense isn't doing him any favors, and that's not changing this week. My note above still stands, but I don't view this as a Zeke spot, to say the least. Dak will throw.
Matthew Stafford, $5900, DET (vs. NO)
The Saints' top two corners are out. One of their top pass rushers is out. The Saints are elite against the run. Kenny Golladay is back. He doesn’t run, so we need him to throw a bunch to make value, but this spot is too juicy. He might be really popular in GPPs though.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, $5400, MIA (vs. SEA)
If you believe that this game does stay close, it will have to be through Fitzpatrick. I expect the attempts to be there, and while he's not safe, he absolutely has upside against an average-at-best Seattle defense. Fitzpatrick seems to have one week every year that someone wins a milly with him as the QB. Why not here?
Potential GPP pivots: Deshaun Watson ($6600, vs. MIN), Kirk Cousins ($5600, at HOU)
Alvin Kamara, $8000, NO (at DET)
There is literally nobody else on this offense. No Michael Thomas. No Jared Cook. Sure, we can punt with some guys (more on that later), but the usage here is going to be through the roof. So will the ownership, so if you're playing him in GPPs, make sure you're blending him with some lower-owned options.
Darrell Henderson Jr., $5900, LAR (vs. NYG)
Darrell has apparently claimed the top spot in this pecking order, especially with Cam Akers out with injury. Now he gets a Giants team that allowed David Montgomery to have 127 total yards at a touchdown and the Niners backups to absolutely gash them on the ground. The Rams are 13.5 point favorites here - don't overthink this.
Ronald Jones II, $4700, TB (vs. LAC)
Leonard Fournette has been ruled out, and Tampa Bay are sitting as 6.5 point favorites at home, potentially playing in some weather, albeit in a lower total game. The usage is here, though - in week 1 he saw 19 touches and last week, after Fournette left the contest, he had 15. We could've considered Fournette at $5600 in a partial timeshare, so why not take the majority role for $900 fewer?
Potential GPP pivots: Dalvin Cook ($7600, at HOU), Kareem Hunt ($6200, at DAL), Mike Davis ($5700, vs. ARI)
Kenny Golladay, $6000, DET (vs. NO)
He's back, he's healthy, and he avoids the top two corners for New Orleans. So does Marvin Jones ($4900). Plug and play.
Will Fuller V, $5900, HOU (vs. MIN)
He's healthy (for now), and Deshaun has been looking his way for more than just the deep ball. He now gets a Vikings defense that has been poor the first three weeks, including being torched by Davante Adams in week one. I think he's a bit underpriced for the matchup, and he's obviously got the upside to smash his low price tag.
Nelson Agholor, $3500, LV (vs. BUF)
With Henry Ruggs doubtful and no Bryan Edwards in this game, he's going to be the primary wide receiver for Derek Carr to look for to stretch the field. He'll primarily play out wide, with Hunter Renfrow ($4600) retaining his slot role and perhaps seeing a bit of an increase in target share. But we're talking about a possible 90+% snap count with high target volume and big play upside. I love this play. I hope others don't.
Potential GPP pivots: Stefon Diggs ($6800, at LV), Odell Beckham Jr. ($5800, at DAL), Justin Jefferson ($5200, at HOU)
Darren Waller, $5200, LV (vs. BUF)
With the news that the Patriots/Chiefs game is postponed, we're pivoting off of Travis Kelce and moving to Waller, who has the most consistent floor of the higher priced tight ends. As mentioned above, we're missing some key targets for Derek Carr this week, meaning more of the short and medium throws are likely coming Waller's way. I think he's underpriced here - don't let last week fool you.
TJ Hockenson, $4800, DET (vs. NO)
See Stafford, Matthew. Finding the right pieces of this team will be crucial. It should be noted that it's unclear whether the Saints will continue to put Malcolm Jenkins on the tight end or utilize Demario Davis - who has been near elite in pass coverage - out there instead. Those decisions have been the variance that caused Waller to explode, for example.
Adam Trautman, $2500, NO (at DET)
Trautman should step directly into the Jared Cook role for this offense, and while he's not Jared Cook, he is an athletic tight end - and a weapon that Brees will likely depend on outside of Kamara to move the chains. He played all twelve snaps after Cook left the game last week. He's minimum priced. He opens up a lot. He's in a high total. The Saints love to pass the football.
Potential GPP pivots: Dalton Schultz ($4300, vs. CLE), Logan Thomas ($3500, vs. BAL)
Do I even need to write this anymore? Make this the last position in your lineup. Whatever's left, make a decision based on that.
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Good luck, and may your screens be green!