NFL DFS: Week 4 Review (DraftKings)
Looking back at Week 4
Last week, I went off the cliff. Not a single lineup in the main slate cashed.
I wrote that the most important thing you can do is learn from your mistakes and not make them again. I didn't.
I'm staring at a GPP lineup that took 184th place in a contest of 190,249 people (top 0.01%, creating a 32x ROI) and my cash lineup was green in all contests.
Let's get to it.
My GPP lineups
I went back to the well with 20 lineups in a 20 entry max competition. 10 of those lineups ended up in the money. However, let's review the lineup that I mentioned above, because I think it's an excellent example of how to properly stack a game and find alternatives to chalk players to gain leverage. Players in red text were part of my stack.
QB: Dak Prescott ($7200 - 9.81% owned - 42.28 points)
RB: Dalvin Cook ($7600 - 15.87% owned - 31.6 points)
RB: Ronald Jones II ($4700 - 14.52% owned - 21.8 points)
WR: Amari Cooper ($6700 - 10.03% owned - 36.4 points)
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. ($5800 - 13.41% owned - 38.4 points)
WR: CeeDee Lamb ($5400 - 10.33% owned - 25.2 points)
WR - Flex: Kenny Golladay ($6000 - 14.34% owned - 16.2 points)
TE: Adam Trautman ($2500 - 9.51% owned - 0 points)
DEF: Ravens ($4000 - 14.17% owned - 6 points)
I actually found the Cowboys and Browns game to be a somewhat difficult game to stack, because there's just so many pieces. I ended up doing this stack in two of my 20 lineups, and when I get into a situation like this, I make stands and don't diversify, because otherwise you end up committing too many lineups to a game. I had zero Jarvis Landry. I had zero Michael Gallup. The only other player I played from this game was Zeke in one-offs.
The key here is that I did include a runback. A Dak/Amari/CeeDee play is fine, but when they go off, it's because the game has to be close enough for them to keep throwing - or they have to be trailing. 99% of the time, run back your lineups. Even if you get the runback wrong, the process of it has to be there for teams to exceed their expectations.
Results: I mentioned that this lineup went 32x ROI (184th place, 217.88 points). Overall, across all lineups, my entries went 3x ROI. Half of my lineups did finish outside of the money (cash line was 150.9), but the one that went 32x would not have been my lineup had I done only one lineup and might not have made it on a 3-max either. I think this might be my process moving forward.
My Cash lineup
(played in various double ups - ownership and cash line based on GIANT $5 Double Up as largest cash contest entered.)
QB: Josh Allen ($7300 - 5.78% owned - 25.42 points)
RB: Alvin Kamara ($8000 - 69.05% owned - 20.9 points)
RB: Dalvin Cook (13.75%)
RB - Flex: Mike Davis ($5700 - 34.9% owned - 22.1 points)
WR: Kenny Golladay (19.81%)
WR: DJ Moore ($5600 - 30.45% owned - 8.9 points)
WR: Hunter Renfrow ($4600 - 20.8% owned - 10.7 points)
TE: Adam Trautman (22.81%)
DEF: Giants ($2600 - 0.19% owned - 5 points)
Ryan Fitzpatrick was 44% owned at the QB spot (!) and I get it - he was cheap, he was in a plus matchup, and we kind of knew he had to throw. But I successfully navigated the correct chalk (Kamara, Davis), blocked where I thought it would be necessary (DJ Moore), and was able to find enough from my other items that I got just enough to beat the cash line. Most importantly, I avoided the chalk that was bad chalk, such as Tyler Lockett (30.17% owned - 5.9 points), Darrell Henderson Jr. (24.06% - 4.8 points - more on that later), and Kenyan Drake (17.29% owned - 3.5 points).
Results: This lineup scored 140.82 points, just squeaking by the 136.1 cash line.
Players from last week's picks that didn't end up in my lineups
Darrell Henderson, Jr.: There was a lot of rumblings prior to kickoff that Malcolm Brown was going to be involved in this game in a near time-split. At that point, I got off entirely, pivoting more shares to Mike Davis and Ronald Jones. And those reports were correct: Henderson had 10 touches and Brown had 14 touches. The price was too high in that scenario; I'm shocked they did this, but it's the Rams, so I guess maybe I shouldn't have been too shocked.
Kareem Hunt ($6200 - 19.1 points): I just couldn't find a spot to get him in. It's kind of the same theory I had with Henderson. I have two guys cheaper that are guaranteed looks, so why not go overweight there? And both of those guys outperformed Hunt.
Nelson Agholor ($3500 - 14.4 points): This was a roster construction pivot. I thought I was either going up at TE or going all the way down, plus the RBs I was rostering were cheap. I just didn't need to go down this far at WR. Shame, because it smashed.
Logan Thomas ($3500 - 1.8 points): See Agholor, Nelson. I didn't stack Washington at all, and in one offs I was either way up or way down. What a disappointment. He's seen 30 targets in four games and has done just nothing with them. I'll probably write him up next week, because I'm a fish.
Cash all around calls for a celebratory beer
It's October, so of course I'm still enjoying Oktoberfest beers. This time, it's Third Space's Oktoberfest. These are my Pumpkin Spice Lattes. Judge me.
With three weeks in the books, it's time to prepare for week four! Be sure to follow along by subscribing below, joining us on Facebook, and enjoying some banter with us on Twitter: Derek Devereaux (author), Mikey Henninger (owner/writer/editor), JJ Gosh (writer).