Super Bowl Best Bets 2026: 6 Analytics-Backed Player Props With Proven Edges
- Mikey Henninger
- 20 hours ago
- 4 min read
🎁 Drake Maye Over 0.5 passing yards is a complete freebie on Betr! Seattle's defense is good but they're not THAT good.
🎁 Download Betr and use promo code "BBSMikey" for a FREE $10 PLUS a 50% deposit match up to $200 in bonuses! Deposit $400, get $200. Deposit $60 get $30. You get the idea.
💡 By the way, I'm taking advantage of the Drake Maye freebie by pairing him with Mack Hollins OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (one of my favorite bets you'll see below) + Jason Myers OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (2+ field goals in 8 of last 10 games and 74% of games this season, PLUS he checks TWO of the boxes in the Kicker Streamer Tab on the Super Bowl Week Winner). If you want to sweat it with me, download Betr and use promo code "BBSMikey" for a FREE $10 PLUS a 50% deposit match up to $200 in bonuses!
Without further adieu, here are the 6 best bets for the Super Bowl based off analytics:
🟢 DeMario Douglas Over 1.5 Targets (My Favorite Bet):
2+ targets in 7 of his last 10 games (70%)
Including 5 of the last 6 (83%)
2+ targets in 14 of 20 games this season (70%)
Seattle allows the 5th most receiving targets per game
Douglas has 2+ targets in 8 of his last 9 games (89%) vs bottom 10 defenses in receiving targets allowed
Patriots 4.5 point underdogs — likely pass-heavy game script
🟢 Mack Hollins Over 27.5 Receiving Yards:
Averaging 53.1 receiving yards per game over the last 10 games
28+ receiving yards in 9 of the last 11 games (82%)
30+ receiving yards in 6 of the last 7 games (86%)
41+ receiving yards in each of the last 3 games
Patriots 4.5 point underdogs — likely pass-heavy game script
Big part of the Patriots' offense, averaging 48.4 offensive snaps per game over his last 9 games after averaging just 37.4 offensive snaps per game over the first 7
🟢 Hunter Henry Under 0.5 Receiving Yards in the 1st Quarter:
0 receiving yards in the 1st quarter in 17 of his last 19 games (89%)
Includes 8 of the last 10 games (80%)
Includes 6 of the last 7 games (86%)
Includes each of the last 4 games
🟢 Drake Maye Under 5.5 Rushing Yards in the 1st Quarter:
4 or fewer 1st quarter rushing yards in 8 of the last 10 games (80%)
Includes 5 of the last 6 games (83%)
Includes each of the last 3 games
4 or fewer 1st quarter rushing yards in 14 of 20 games this year (70%)
4 or fewer 1st quarter rushing yards in 6 straight games vs top 10 defenses in 1st quarter rushing yards allowed (Maye is averaging 2.7 rushing yards per game in those 1st quarters)
🟢 AJ Barner Under 12.5 Receiving Yards in the 1st Half:
Averaging 9.05 1st half receiving yards in 19 games this season
Averaging 8.5 1st half receiving yards over his last 10 games
11 or fewer 1st half receiving yards in 7 of the last 8 games (88%)
Including each of the last 2
11 or fewer 1st half receiving yards in 12 of 19 games (63%) this year
🟢 Sam Darnold Under 119.5 Passing Yards in the 1st Half:
98 or fewer 1st half passing yards in 8 of the last 10 games (80%)
Including 7 of the last 8 games (88%)
Averaging 94.9 1st half passing yards over the last 10 games
Patriots rank 7th against QBs in passing yards allowed
Seahawks favored by 4.5 points — likely run-heavy game script
By the way... when you download Betr and use promo code BBSMikey for a free $10 and a 50% deposit match up to $200 in bonuses...
⚠️ Be careful with Betr's discount on Jaxon Smith-Njigba (they dropped him from 92.5 to 82.5 receiving yards).
He DOES have 84+ yards in 7 of the last 10 games (70%), including 5 of the last 7 games (71%). He also has 84+ yards in 15 of 19 games this season (79%). It's not a BAD bet, but here are three reasons it's not a lock:
Has 72 or fewer yards in 2 of the last 4 games
The Patriots rank 4th in receiving yards allowed to WRs
Seahawks favored by 4.5 points — likely run-heavy game script
🛑 Beware of Betr's discount on Kenneth Walker (they dropped from 99.5 to just 82.5 rush + receiving yards). No Zach Charbonnet and Walker has hit 111+ scrimmage yards in 4 of the last 5 games, including each of the last 3. BUT...
74 or fewer scrimmage yards in 4 of the last 8 games (50%)
74 or fewer scrimmage yards in 10 of 19 games this season (53%)
Patriots rank 2nd in RB rushing yards allowed
(15th in RB receiving yards allowed)
Just 7 RBs in 20 games have eclipsed 83+ scrimmage yards against the Patriots.