Week 16 DraftKings DFS Picks & Fades (2025 season)

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Injuries and benching seem to be running rampant as we head into this weekend. We're getting multiple backup QBs below the $5,000 mark that are starting in excellent matchups on paper, some notable questionable tags across the other positions, and - oh yeah - there are five different games sitting between a 47.5 and 51.5 total.

This week feels wide open. Let's hope we find the right spots.

Here are my week 16 DraftKings DFS picks, fades and stacks I'm considering for my lineups.

Week 16 DraftKings DFS Stack of the Week

Minnesota Vikings: QB JJ McCarthy ($4,900) + WR Justin Jefferson ($6,000) + TE TJ Hockenson ($3,000). Total salary: $13,900.

The answer to "At what price would you play Justin Jefferson?" appears to be $6,000 for me.

JJ McCarthy has looked better, but still not great, over the past two weeks, both in soft matchups. He gets another soft one here against a below-average Giants secondary, so we're looking for him to continue to take the step forward.

Notably, and I teased this in the intro, there are QBs that are cheaper than JJ that are in great spots - backups-turned starters Gardner Minshew ($4,500) going against the lowly Titans, Quinn Ewers ($4,000) sitting at the stone-cold minimum going against the always-profitable Bengals defense, and Kirk Cousins ($4,800) who just went off and gets the we-allow-everyone-to-score-40-points Cardinals defense. All of them have established receivers that make stacking easier, and the salary relief from playing them is similar to what we have here, generally speaking.

All that to say - this feels like a really interesting tournament play, betting on talent that Justin Jefferson doesn't produce another dud on 8 targets like last week.

Week 16 DraftKings DFS Picks

RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons ($8,700)

And another reason to go cheap on the stack this week - it is absolutely a premium RB week, at least how I'm seeing it. There's not a ton of good, reliable value at the position, even through the mid-range, so I plan on going overweight the top guys as much as possible. Bijan stands out - again, the Cardinals defense has allowed teams to score 40 on them in four of their last six games. If they make it 5 of 7, Bijan will have a big role in that.

WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,400)

It's looking like Rashee Rice will not be able to suit up due to a concussion, leaving Xavier Worthy as the clear #1 for Gardner Minshew. Worthy will soak up that volume gap - he had target counts of 9 and 8 earlier this season when Rashee was out. It's way too cheap.

See! I told you the popular stacks were going to be super cheap!

TE Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins ($3,500)

Darren Waller finally had another big game last week, going 7-66-2 in a semi-competitive loss against the Steelers. I'm not sure how competitive this game will be against the Bengals - Vegas has it as a 4.5 point spread right now, which feels closer than I would have thought - but I do know that the Bengals are the best matchup for tight ends, and with minimum-priced Quinn Ewers at the helm, finding the exploitable matchup is going to be key to keep drives moving.

Week 16 DraftKings DFS Fades

RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,900)

The price is simply too high for someone who's clearly ceding work to another back. Both him and Samaje Perine finished with double-digit touches last week, and while Chase Brown's passing game usage has buoyed his results, it's still ending up as floor games rather than any ceiling ones. I'd rather find the money and spend up here or take a gamble on someone else in the range that has a more secure role.

TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders ($5,600)

Another case where the money could be best spent elsewhere. We all know this Texans defense is legit, and while I expect Bowers to get targeted a ton, what's the realistic upside case? There are guys over $1,000 cheaper at the position that I see as having similar floors, and maybe even comparable ceilings given their matchups.

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