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Why I'm NOT Drafting Zay Flowers in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts 🤨

👆 Episode 22 of Inside the 20 discusses whether or not you should smash or pass on Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews in 2024 fantasy football! 👆


Why I'm NOT drafting Zay Flowers in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts


What you're about to read is straight out of BBFF's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. We do this for every single player, on every single team. Get your Draft Guide while it costs less than a case of beer!


Zay Flowers betting odds as of 6/5/2024:

💰 Over/Under 925.5 receiving yards (-110 over, -110 under)

💰 Over/Under 6.5 receiving TDs (+125 over, -150 under)


Fantasy Football:

Zay Flowers is entering year 2 in the NFL and his age 24 season after leading the Ravens in targets (108), catches (77), and receiving yards (858) with 6 touchdowns and a solid WR 31 finish as a rookie in 2023.


Over 18 games—including playoffs—Flowers averaged:


🏈 13.1 PPR points per game

🏈 6.7 targets

🏈 4.8 catches

🏈 59.7 scrimmage yards

🏈 0.4 TDs


Of course, in an offense that threw the ball just 29.1 times per game—the 3rd fewest in football—Flowers was a bit “boom or bust,” scoring 15 or more PPR points in 7 of 18 games (38.9%) but also fewer than 10 PPR points in 6 of 18 games (33.3%).


And that’s the concern with Zay Flowers moving forward: week-to-week consistency.


John Harbaugh’s Ravens have finished 28th or lower in passing attempts in 4 of the last 5 seasons, including finishing 30th in passing attempts (and 21st in passing yards) last season.


And with all-world rusher Derrick Henry—a guy who already ranks 36th all time on the all time NFL rushing list—now lining up behind Lamar Jackson, there’s little reason to expect the Ravens to abandon their run-first approach.


Flowers’ outlook is especially concerning when you consider the return of a fully healthy Mark Andrews, who played in just 10 games last season before the infamous “hip drop” tackle that ruined his season.


In 10 games where Mark Andrews played less than 40 snaps or didn’t play at all, Zay Flowers averaged a sparkling 15.4 PPR points on 6.9 nice targets per game.


But in 8 games where Andrews was healthy and played at least 40 offensive snaps, Flowers averaged a concerning 10.2 PPR points and 6.5 targets per game.


The absolute BEST a Baltimore wide receiver has finished in fantasy football since Mark Andrews came to town in 2018 was WR 22 in 2021, when Marquise Brown caught 91 of 145 targets for 1008 yards and 6 TDs.


A WR 22 finish on 1008 yards and 6 TDs is noteworthy when you remember that Flowers' is projected for just 925(ish) yards and 6(ish) TDs. 925 yards would have been the 29th most among WRs last season.


Don’t get me wrong, there’s certainly room for growth for Flowers, last year’s 22nd overall pick, especially after Odell Beckham—who somehow pathetically finished 2nd on the team in targets with 64—left for Miami and Baltimore didn’t add a noteworthy replacement (unless you count 4th round pick Devontez Walker).


Still, in an offense that might be the run-heaviest in all of football and battling Mark Andrews for precious targets, Zay Flowers may struggle to offer week-to-week consistency.


He will have big weeks, but he'll have plenty of duds as well.


That's why I'm finding it hard to get excited about Zay Flowers at his current cost of WR 25 around pick 34 overall (late 3rd round); we're drafting him closer to his ceiling than we are his floor.


Zay Flowers is currently ranked 39th overall and BBFF's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide (see below).


Are you drafting Zay Flowers at his current cost? Let me know in the comments below!

 

📌 Here are 3 ways to get the competitive edge in your fantasy leagues this season: 👇


1️⃣ Online Fantasy Football Community - a Discord Server of NFL fans and sharp fantasy football brains dedicated to helping each other conquer tough decisions and find success.


A perfect place to ask for a 2nd (or 69th) opinion on tough start/sit, trade, add/drop or life dilemma. Everyone in here is a paid subscriber, so you know it’s good people who take the game seriously and won’t steer you wrong!



2️⃣ 2024 Draft Guide - includes rankings for tiebreaker decisions, tiers for planning ahead, 2024 previews for every player (250 of them), stop lights that suggest the perfect time to draft a player, and an ADP tracker to show you which direction a player is trending in drafts.


It’s like you did 30+ hours of weekly research and 300+ real drafts to prepare!

 

3️⃣ In-Season Cheat Sheets - every week during the season, you’ll get cheat sheets to assist with waivers, start/sit decisions, streamer scenarios, DFS lineups, and more! This includes the weekly “Heat Map,” a lineup-setting resource that offers contextual analysis for every player in every game, every week. This is THE resource that started this entire business!



2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

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