Zero RB is back on the best ball menu

Time is a flat circle.

Just two years ago, I wrote a piece on this here platform claiming that Zero RB was a dead strategy for best ball, and I was mostly right. It didn't truly die, but we saw the rise of running backs outperforming their ADPs in many cases, and it continued to rise into the 2025 season.

And yet, here I am, telling you that 2024 Derek is an idiot and you should not listen to him.

Best ball is a game of market exploitation & roster construction

A lot of what I wrote in the RIP ZERO RB piece was about how the cost of usable running backs had never been more affordable. In early best ball drafts in 2026, that script has flipped back to 2022 levels.

Let's take that chart and add a column for early ADP from 2026. This takes players out of the equation and looks solely at positional value.

First, with running backs on Underdog.

Position Rank	2022 Underdog ADP Rank	2024 Underdog ADP Rank (from June 2024)	2026 Underdog ADP Rank (as of March 30, 2026)
RB1	1	1	1
RB2	2	5	2
RB3	5	7	6
RB4	7	12	7
RB5	8	13	11
RB6	11	14	12
RB7	12	17	13
RB8	14	18	14
RB9	15	28	15
RB10	17	32	16
RB11	18	38	20
RB12	19	45	21
RB13	23	48	22
RB14	28	55	27
RB15	35	57	30

Look at how wildly that swung back in that short time gap! RB15 is going five picks earlier than four years ago, and that same player is going two full rounds earlier than in 2024.

This inflation of running back values has been, in large part, due to the fact that running backs have simply stayed healthier overall, especially among the top players. But fundamentally, nothing has changed with their skill sets or opportunity costs here.

They're simply overvalued.

How does this impact the wide receiver market?

Back to the tables we go!

Position Rank	2022 Underdog ADP Rank	2024 Underdog ADP Rank (June 2024)	2026 Underdog ADP Rank (as of March 30, 2026)
WR1	3	2	3
WR2	4	3	4
WR3	6	4	5
WR4	9	6	8
WR5	10	8	9
WR6	16	9	10
WR7	20	10	17
WR8	22	11	19
WR9	24	15	24
WR10	25	16	25
WR11	27	19	26
WR12	29	20	29
WR13	31	21	31
WR14	32	22	33
WR15	33	23	35

As one would expect, we've got a reversion to 2022 here as well. The premium on wide receivers has gone down in an ADP rank sense relative to the peak in 2024.

What's interesting here is something I wrote back in 2024 about how I planned to attack drafts (which I did, in fact, do): Hit WR early, and then back-fill with competent but risky RBs later, usually with my first RB in rounds 5-7.

That's certainly doable in 2026 still - and, so far, is how I've been drafting the most - but you can wait even later than that right now if you want.

The changing landscape of the NFL has driven the RB prices back, but it should really be doing the opposite

There's been a trend in the NFL towards leaning more into heavy packages on offense. This has obviously boosted the running game - this, combined with the relative healthiness of top backs, ultimately is what's causing, in my mind, the reversion back to 2022 ADP prices.

But what that's actually done is taken more wide receivers off the field. And with wide receivers off the field, a lot less of them are usable for our purposes - and the late-round guys are the ones taking the sharpest production fall.

Take a look at the league averages of 11-personnel, 12-personnel, and 13-personnel packages over the past four seasons (stats courtesy of Sumer Sports):

Personnel Type	2022 League Usage	2023 League Usage	2024 League Usage	2025 League Usage
11-personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR)	60.44%	62.39%	61.18%	56.43%
12-personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR)	17.31%	19.23%	21.28%	22.33%
13-personnel (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR)	3.94%	3.63%	3.59%	5.38%

The drop in three wide receiver sets - and subsequent rise of multiple TE sets - is stark, and I'm not convinced it has peaked yet. The Rams were a perfectly frustrating example of this: Their passing game revolved solely around Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and a rotation of four different TEs. There was no WR 3, for all intents and purposes. Similar trends popped up with the Steelers, Cardinals and Saints last season, among other teams.

If teams aren't putting third WRs out on the field as much, then where are these early RB drafters going to find wide receiver values?

Robust RB is a dead strategy in 2026

There, I found the actual title of this piece.

With the replacement level value of wide receivers cratering, it's more imperative than ever to get as many elite and/or upside options on your team as possible. I'm in the former camp: So far in my drafts, my goal is to get five WRs within the first 7 to 8 rounds at any cost. And it hasn't been hard to, even on full PPR sites like DraftKings (where you'd think WR values would stay inflated, but the same trend is happening there, too.)

Here's a draft example from earlier this week, where I took that to an extreme and took five WRs in the first six rounds:

• Round 1, Pick 8: Jaxson Smith Njigba (this is obviously abnormal; Amon-Ra St. Brown would've been my pick here otherwise)

• Round 2, Pick 17: Malik Nabers

• Round 3, Pick 32: Rashee Rice

• Round 4, Pick 41: Zay Flowers

• Round 5, Pick 56: Quinshon Judkins

• Round 6, Pick 65: Marvin Harrison Jr.

This still gets me an established RB with job security as RB22 in the fifth round (right between where RB14 and RB15 were going in 2024), plus five sure-fire target hogs that will be out there regardless of personnel (with Rashee Rice possibly having a suspension looming, but that's for another day.)

I win the FLEX position in a full-point PPR, and basically just need to find lightning in a bottle at the second RB position.

What does the rest of that RB room look like?

• Tony Pollard in Round 9, Pick 104: There's real risk that he loses his job to a rookie...but what if that doesn't happen and they improve the offensive line instead?

• Jonah Coleman in Round 13, Pick 152: A rookie with a day two draft capital projection, he's a power back that also was productive in the passing game in college. As with any rookie, falling to the right situation will be key for his first-year usage, but with early enough draft capital, it could certainly lead to him playing his way onto the field.

• James Conner in Round 14, Pick 161: The Cardinals signed Tyler Allgeier this offseason, and I suspect they'll make Conner and Allgeier complimentary 1A and 1B pieces. That's not great for Conner's ceiling, but it does give him a bit of a floor, so long as he stays healthy. He's my "backstop" piece here.

• Braelon Allen in Round 16, Pick 185: One of my favorite late-round grabs, Braelon Allen is still likely the successor to Breece Hall in the event of an injury or trade. The perfect handcuff pick.

• Kaytron Allen in Round 19, Pick 224: The second rookie on my team, Kaytron Allen is most certainly going to fall into an early-down role in the NFL if given the opportunity, which limits his PPR upside. But that's why he's available in the second-to-last round of best ball drafts on DraftKings and not going earlier. I've teased this on BlueSky already, but what happens when the Lions take him in day three of the NFL Draft and put him in the David Montgomery spell role?

Is it ugly? Sure. Can it win a best ball tournament with a bit of luck? Absolutely.

The market is a myth, and you should exploit it

Teams are not going to be able to survive drafting volumes of wide receivers anymore and hoping to strike lightning in a bottle at that position. It gets worse when you add in the general rise of QB ADPs.

Now more than ever, betting against the overpriced position - which, in this case, also has the easiest like-for-like replacement value to obtain - is your best way to succeed against the market.

Long live Elite WR. Welcome back, Zero RB.

Basement Brewed Sports is your home for fantasy football

No matter if you play best ball, season-long redraft, dynasty or DFS, we've got you covered with in-depth research, guides and tools to help you dominate. Check us out today. And if you're into PrizePicks, Underdog and/or prop betting, you can join the Basement Brewed Sports VIP group to have picks texted straight to your phone, with both a paid and a free (!) option available. Both come with access to our private Discord server.

And in the meantime, go check out my free DraftKings Top 300 rankings for the pre-NFL-Draft best ball contests.