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2023 Fantasy Football Rankings: Preview for Every Player on the Denver Broncos

Updated: Aug 4, 2023


👆 Destroy your friends with a draft cheat sheet that they don't even know exists! 👆

What to expect from this article

Below, we will dive deep into what we can expect from the Broncos' offense in 2023, including thorough fantasy football previews for Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Marvin Mims and Greg Dulcich.


Each player preview will conclude with fantasy football rankings and suggestions for how to approach them in redraft, dynasty and best ball leagues (and superflex leagues for QBs).


2022 Denver Broncos: Looking Back

2022 was an absolute disaster for the Denver Broncos, and that's putting it as nice as we possibly can.


Denver orchestrated a blockbuster trade for QB Russell Wilson, trading two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks and a 5th round pick to Seattle for the perennial MVP candidate, only to watch Russ and the entire team implode and become the laughingstock of the league.


Wilson and company finished with a miserable 5-12 record and 28th place finish on the season, giving Seattle—not Denver because of the tradethe 5th overall pick which they used on the top CB in the class, Devon Witherspoon, after already making the playoffs last year with Geno Smith under center.


Nathaniel Hackett made it through just 15 games (4-11) before getting fired in his first year as the Broncos' head coach, something you just don't see that often in pro football.


Denver's offense was as miserable as their record suggests, finishing:

🔴 dead last in scoring

🟠 21st in offensive yards

🟡 16th in pass attempts

🟠 19th in passing yards

🟠 23rd in passing TDs

🟠 17th in rushing attempts

🟠 21st in rushing yards

🔴 28th in rushing TDs


The lack of offense showed up at the individual level as well, where:


🔴 Russell Wilson suffered 11-year career lows in completion percentage (60.5%) and TD passes (16). He finished as fantasy's QB 16 after finishing as the QB 11 or better—including four top-3 finishes—in 9 of his 10 previous seasons as an NFL QB.


🔴 Courtland Sutton finished as fantasy's WR 43 after being drafted as the WR 18 all summer


🔴 Melvin Gordon was released in the middle of the season despite being drafted as a flex option (RB 35) all summer.


There's really no way to sugarcoat it; 2022 was an absolute dumpster fire for the Broncos—and unfortunately, their fans and fantasy managers.


But for reasons we'll discuss below, there's some very real optimism for 2023...

2023 Fantasy Football Preview: Looking Ahead

Denver's 2023 offseason hasn't been especially busy, but it has been loud. So far they've:


✅ Signed free agent RB Samaje Perine after 3 effective years backing up Joe Mixon in Cincinnati, notable with Javonte Williams unlikely to be ready for week 1 (more on that below).


✅ Drafted Oklahoma WR Marvin Mims with the 63rd overall pick (round 2, pick 32) in the 2023 NFL Draft


❌ Fired Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett in the middle of the season last year.


And most importantly...


✅ Hired big name Head Coach Sean Payton, who won 63% of his games (152-89) in 15 years as the Head Coach of the New Orleans Saints between 2006-2021. Payton took the Saints to the playoffs in 9 of those 15 years, with a 9-8 playoff record including a Super Bowl victory back in 2009.


Undoubtedly hired to surgically repair a devastated offense, Sean Payton's units were among the best in the business for a decade and a half, routinely finishing in the top 10—if not top 5—in scoring, offensive yards, passing yards, rushing TDs and passing TDs.


🟢 Remarkably, Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of 15 years, including 9 finishes inside the top 5. His offense finished lower than 12th in scoring just once in 15 years, New Orleans first season after Drew Brees retired (2021).


🟢 Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in yards in 13 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 10 of 15 seasons. Payton's offenses led the entire NFL in yards in 6 of 15 seasons, with 2 more finishes in 2nd place.


🟢 His offenses were particularly effective in the passing game, finishing inside the top 5 in passing attempts in 9 of 15 campaigns, with just 4 seasons outside of the top 15.


🟢 The Saints finished inside the top 5 in passing yards in 11 of 15 seasons, including 5 different seasons of leading the entire NFL in passing yards.


🟢 They never finished lower than 16th in passing TDs, finishing inside the top 11 in an astonishing 14 of 15 years—including 7 finishes inside the top 2.


If you're desperate to poke holes in Payton's resume, his rushing attack was not nearly as effective as his aerial attack. But it was still really strong...


🟠 The Saints did finish inside the top 13 in rushing attempts in 6 of 15 seasons—including 4 finishes inside the top 7, but they otherwise finished 17th or worst in the other 9 seasons, including 4 seasons of 26th or worse.


🟡 However, what New Orleans lacked in volume, they made up for with efficiency. Despite finishing lower than 16th in rushing attempts in 9 of 15 seasons, the Saints finished 16th or better in rushing yards in 9 of 15 seasons, including 5 seasons in the top 7.


🟢 And, of course, most importantly, the lack of volume didn't stop Payton's offenses from landing inside the top 10 in rushing TDs in 11 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 7 of 15 seasons.


Payton's success as an offensive mind in the NFL has shown up at the individual level as well, making Drew Brees a perennial MVP contender and creating fantasy football studs for fantasy managers to drool over for a decade and a half:


🟢 In 15 seasons with Sean Payton, Drew Brees finished as fantasy football's QB 1 (twice), QB 2 (thrice), QB 3 (twice), QB 5, QB 6 (thrice), QB 8, QB 9, and QB 21 (twice in his age 40 and 41 seasons).


TLDR: Brees was a top 6 QB in 11 of 15 seasons with Payton, including 7 campaigns as a top 3 QB.


🟢 Sean Payton produced at least one top 12 fantasy football RB in 11 of 15 seasons as the Saints' Head Coach.


🟢 One of the few NFL coaches who can support two fantasy football RBs, Sean Payton produced two different top 36 RBs in 12 of his 15 seasons. Names on that list include Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Aaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.


🟢 Jimmy Graham was elite as a fantasy football option between 2011 and 2014, routinely battling Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates for the top spot and finishing as a top 2 TE in 4 straight years (he was the TE 1 in both 2012 and 2013).


🟡 The WR position was less consistent at the micro level for Sean Payton's offenses (especially when Jimmy Graham was dominating the box scores between 2011-2014), but there certainly have been some shining stars—Marques Colston routinely finished as a top 15 WR between 2006-2014, and Michael Thomas was a top 7 option for 4 straight seasons under Payton (2016-2019).


Of course, we must give credit where credit is due, understanding that a large part of Payton's success has been the personnel that he's had the privilege to work with—I'd love to have Drew Brees as my QB if I'm an NFL Head Coach...


But as we saw with the Russell Wilson-Nathaniel Hackett marriage last season, just working with a talented player isn't enough to put it all together on the football field.


Now, with a Hall of Fame coach calling the shots and plenty of talent on the field, the Denver Broncos are a major bounce-back offense waiting to happen in both real life and fantasy football.


👇 With that all being said, let's do a thorough 2023 fantasy football preview of each and every fantasy-relevant player on the Denver Broncos! 👇

Denver Broncos Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football Rankings and Preview

🟢 QB Russell Wilson

2022 was the worst season of Russell Wilson's 11-year career, suffering career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), adjusted yards per pass attempt (a not so nice 6.9), rating (84.4) and TD passes (16), marking the first time in his career that Russ threw fewer than 20 TD passes in a season. He took a career high 55 sacks and threw 11 interceptions, the 2nd most of his career.


After finishing as a top 15 fantasy QB in each of the first 10 seasons of his career—including QB 11 or better in 9 of 10 seasons, four of which were QB 3 or better—Russ landed at QB 16 in his first season with the broncos after Denver traded two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks to get him.


(Meanwhile, Russ' former team, the Seattle Seahawks, rode the previously-written-off-but-he-didn't-write-back Geno Smith to a playoff appearance.)


Any way you slice it, after averaging just 15.7 fantasy points per game in 2022—the lowest of his career—it was easily the worst year of Wilson's decade+ career and his 2nd straight season outside of the top 14 fantasy QBs.


Of course, two straight seasons of subpar performance have a way of sticking in the minds of fantasy managers, potentially making Russ—and the Broncos offense as a whole—a high upside steal in 2023 fantasy drafts if you bet on a bounce-back campaign.


And I am.


If we look at Wilson's larger body of work, we already know there's an MVP-caliber QB in there somewhere, and he's still "just" 34 years old (35 in November), providing optimism that there's still time to return to form.


After 171 career regular season games where he's thrown at least 17 passes—including 2022's travesty of a campaign—Russell Wilson is still averaging a strong:


⚫ 19 fantasy points per game

⚫ 235.6 passing yards per game

⚫ 1.8 passing TDs per game (306 total)

⚫ 0.6 interception per game (96 total)

⚫ 28.9 rushing yards per game

⚫ 0.2 rushing TDs per game (26 total)


One of the traditionally safer options in fantasy football, Russell Wilson has scored 15 or more fantasy points in 115 of those 171 games (67%), with more games over 28 fantasy points (23) than games under 10 fantasy points (22).


He's scored 20 or more fantasy points in 74 of 171 games (43%), including 15 games over 31 (9%) with a career high of 41.3 fantasy points against, ironically enough, Sean Payton's Saints in week 3 of 2019.


The last 2 seasons make it easy to forget that Russ was genuinely a perennial MVP candidate prior to 2021, finishing as fantasy's QB 11 or better in each of his first 9 seasons in football, four of which he was the QB 3 or better (he was THE QB 1 in 2017).


Heck, he's just two seasons removed from throwing 40 touchdown passes...


And heading into 2023, Wilson will get to work with Sean Payton, a 15-year Head Coach that coached Drew Brees to a Hall of Fame career and orchestrated elite offenses that routinely finished in the top 10—if not top 5—in scoring, offensive yards, passing yards, rushing TDs and passing TDs:


🟢 Remarkably, Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of 15 years he coached the team, including 9 finishes inside the top 5. His offense finished lower than 12th in scoring just once in 15 years, which was New Orleans' first season after Drew Brees retired (2021).


🟢 Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in yards in 13 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 10 of 15 seasons. Payton's offenses led the entire NFL in yards in 6 of 15 seasons, with 2 more finishes in 2nd place.


🟢 His offenses were particularly effective in the passing game, finishing inside the top 5 in passing attempts in 9 of 15 campaigns, with just 4 seasons outside of the top 15.


🟢 The Saints finished inside the top 5 in passing yards in 11 of 15 seasons, including 5 different seasons of leading the entire NFL in passing yards.


🟢 And, unfathomably, they never finished lower than 16th in passing TDs, finishing inside the top 11 in an astonishing 14 of 15 years—including 7 finishes inside the top 2.


All of that success showed up at the individual (aka fantasy football) level where Drew Brees built a Hall of Fame career with Payton...

Tweet about how to approach Russell Wilson in 2023 fantasy football rankings

In 15 seasons with Sean Payton, Drew Brees finished as fantasy football's QB 1 (twice), QB 2 (thrice), QB 3 (twice), QB 5, QB 6 (thrice), QB 8, QB 9, and QB 21 (twice in his age 40 and 41 seasons).


TLDR: Brees was a top 6 QB in 11 of 15 seasons with Payton, including 7 campaigns as a top 3 QB.


For what it's worth, Vegas sportsbooks are expecting a markedly better season than last year, projecting Wilson for over/under 3650.5 passing yards (would be the 6th highest of his 12 year career) and over/under 24.5 passing TDs (which would be the 4th fewest of his career but still 8 more than last year.


By the way, 3650 passing yards and 24 passing TDs—which doesn't even factor in rushing statistics, a big part of Russ' game—would be good for 242 fantasy points, which would have made Russ the QB 13 last season—notable since he's drafted as the QB 18 this season.


Coming off back-to-back slow years but working with Sean Payton, Russ is best approached as a higher-end QB 2 with the talent and history-based upside to get back to high-end QB 1 status on any given Sunday. Him and Aaron Rodgers are my favorite late round QB picks.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟡 Entering his age 35 season and coming off back-to-back down years, Russell Wilson's dynasty value has never been lower than it is now. There's a definite "buy low" window for QB needy teams.


Redraft Leagues: 🟢 Russell Wilson is currently drafted as fantasy's QB 18 around pick 130 overall (late 11th round) in 2023 PPR leagues.


He's one of my favorite late round QBs and could prove to be one of fantasy's 2023 steals.


If you have not yet drafted a QB by this point, Russ (or Aaron Rodgers) is a great option.


If you did draft a QB already (and are playing in a "normal" league), skip Wilson and instead opt for Jerick McKinnon, Elijah Mitchell, Jamaal Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Zay Jones or Rondale Moore.


Wilson is currently #114 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings—15-16 spots ahead of where he's usually drafted—and gets a slight bump in drafts where I landed Jerry Jeudy earlier.


Superflex Leagues: 🟢 Russell Wilson is currently drafted as fantasy's QB 23 in Superflex startups. I'd be thrilled to get Russ late as my QB 2 in a Superflex league.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟢 Russell Wilson is currently drafted as fantasy's QB 18 around pick 134 overall (early 12th round) in Underdog best ball drafts.


He's one of my favorite picks in that range if:


A) I took Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins earlier and need a strong QB 2 or...


B) I haven't taken a QB yet at all, in which case I'd pair Russ with another pick near the 11-12 turn like Aaron Rodgers.


(If you drafted Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow earlier, there's no need to take a 2nd QB yet).


If you don't need a QB in this spot, instead you might consider Jamaal Williams, Greg Dulcich, Dalton Kincaid, Jaylen Warren, Michael Gallup, Van Jefferson, Tank Bigsby, Dalton Schultz, Jonathan Mingo, Adam Thielen, Tyler Higbee or Kendre Miller.


Wilson is currently #114 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings—15-16 spots ahead of where he's usually drafted—and gets a slight bump in drafts where I landed Jerry Jeudy earlier.


Max best ball exposure: 25%

Denver Broncos Running Backs

Fantasy Football Rankings and Preview

🟡 RB Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams got off to an encouraging start in 2022, averaging 13.4 PPR points per game on 63 touches—including a mouthwatering 16 catches on 22 targets—for 280 scoreless scrimmage yards in under 4 games before going down in week 4 with a torn ACL and LCL.


It was yet another tease of what could have been in 2022, as the 2021 35th overall pick from North Carolina has flashed big upside in limited opportunities in his career. In 11 career games where Williams has handled 15 or more touches, he's averaged a sturdy:


⚫ 14.4 PPR points per game

⚫ 17.7 touches, including 3.1 catches on 4.2 targets

⚫ 86.5 scrimmage yards

⚫ 0.5 TDs (5 total)


He's flashed RB 1 upside, hitting 20 PPR points in 4 of those 11 games, including a career high 29.8 PPR points on a workhorse-like 29 touches in week 13 of 2021.


There's no denying the upside that Williams brings to the table when he's on the field. Especially in a Sean Payton offense that finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of his 15 years as an NFL Head Coach, Williams will be a league-winning talent when he's healthy.


But "when he's healthy" is the problem for Williams' 2023 outlook.

A tweet that relates to how we should approach Javonte Williams in our 2023 fantasy football rankings

Consider this 10/3/2022 evaluation from Dr. Deepak Chona—one of the best in the business—shortly after Williams' injury occurred last season:


"This is a lot like the JK Dobbins injury from last year. Average return takes 15 months (5 more than ACL alone). RB performance drop-offs are severe for year 1 return (average 20%) but return to baseline in year 2...Javonte should be back probably mid 2023, but the (Sports MD Analysis) algorithm says we shouldn’t expect Dobbins-like production right away."


Doc's done a terrific job of updating his analysis on Javonte Williams' injury progress—especially recently as Williams himself has been saying he'll be ready—but Dr. Chona's original sentiment hasn't changed:

Tweet describing how we should approach Javonte Williams in our 2023 fantasy football rankings

"Rooting for his comeback, but not betting on it. Playing week 1 would make (Williams) a huge outlier. Average return = 15 months and he'd only be at 11 (Dobbins took 13). (And when he does return), major stats dip, slow ramp up and elevated re-injury risk are all a part of the return process."


In other words, Dr. Chona is not expecting Williams to be ready to play come week 1, and we should keep expectations dangerously low even when Williams does find the field.


There will also be no reason to rush the 2021 2nd rounder back after Denver signed 6-year vet Samaje Perine to a two-year contract worth $7.5 million. Perine is a more than capable back who's already drawn praise from Broncos GM George Paton, HC Sean Payton and the Denver media as a 3-down holdover while Javonte recovers (and Perine will stay involved even after Williams does return).


Likely to miss the start of the season and then take awhile to ramp up even when he does return, Javonte Williams is best approached as an RB 3 who could theoretically offer some late season, talent-based upside.

Tweet discussing how we should approach Javonte Williams in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.

UPDATE: even amid reports that Javonte Williams will avoid PUP, Dr. Chona's general sentiment has not waivered much. At best, we should expect a 3-4 game ramp-up:


"Reportedly on track to avoid PUP. Promising news, but would temper early expectations. These are brutal injuries (see Dobbins ’22 for reference). Data predicts ramp up period of 3-4 games, early efficiency dip ~20%. Week 8+ project to be promising."


At his current cost (89 overall), Williams is a perfectly fine pick for the upside he brings to the table after week 8. That said, considering the news that he will avoid the PUP, it's likely Williams' ADP will sky-rocket in coming weeks.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 Still just 23 years old, Javonte Williams is currently drafted as the RB 17 in dynasty startups. Considering his recovery timeline, 2023 projects as a year that will create a "buy low" window for savvy dynasty managers early in the season.


Redraft Leagues: 🟡 Javonte Williams is currently drafted as fantasy's RB 28 around pick 89 overall (mid 8th round) in 2023 PPR leagues.


Given his projected recovery timeline, I'm skipping Williams in 2023 and instead opting for D'Andre Swift, Rachaad White, David Montgomery, Brandin Cooks, James Conner, Deshaun Watson, Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Dalvin Cook, Courtland Sutton, Michael Thomas, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson, Skyy Moore or AJ Dillon in that range.


Williams is currently #96 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings—6 or 7 spots behind where he's usually drafted.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Javonte Williams is currently drafted as fantasy's RB 28 around pick 90 overall (mid 8th round) in Underdog best ball leagues.


Given his projected recovery timeline, I'm skipping Williams in 2023 and instead opting for Rachaad White, Brandin Cooks, Deshaun Watson, James Conner, Elijah Moore, Dalvin Cook, Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, James Cook, Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Antonio Gibson, Skyy Moore or AJ Dillon.


Williams is currently #96 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings—6 or 7 spots behind where he's usually drafted.

🟢 RB Samaje Perine

After an effective 3.5 years in Cincinnati, Samaje Perine signed a two-year, $7.5 million contract with the Denver Broncos this offseason.


It's an especially noteworthy signing considering that backfield mate Javonte Williams is recovering from a torn ACL AND LCL that could keep him on the shelf when the season opens up in September (tentatively penciling Perine in as the RB 1 in a Sean Payton offense).


And even when Williams does return, credible medical experts believe he won't be nearly as effective as usual, likely keeping Perine heavily involved all season regardless of Williams' health.

A tweet that relates to how we should approach Samaje Perine in our 2023 fantasy football rankings

Consider this 10/3/2022 evaluation from Dr. Deepak Chona—one of the best in the business—shortly after Williams' injury occurred last season:


"This is a lot like the JK Dobbins injury from last year. Average return takes 15 months (5 more than ACL alone). RB performance drop-offs are severe for year 1 return (average 20%) but return to baseline in year 2...Javonte should be back probably mid 2023, but the (Sports MD Analysis) algorithm says we shouldn’t expect Dobbins-like production right away."


Doc's done a terrific job of updating his analysis on Javonte Williams' injury progress—especially recently as Williams himself has been saying he'll be ready—but Dr. Chona's original sentiment hasn't changed:

Tweet describing how we should approach Javonte Williams in our 2023 fantasy football rankings

"Rooting for his comeback, but not betting on it. Playing week 1 would make (Williams) a huge outlier. Average return = 15 months and he'd only be at 11 (Dobbins took 13). (And when he does return), major stats dip, slow ramp up and elevated re-injury risk are all a part of the return process."


In other words, Dr. Chona is not expecting Williams to be ready to play come week 1, and we should keep expectations dangerously low even when Williams does find the field.


If you'll recall, Baltimore's JK Dobbins didn't make an appearance until week 3 last year. And even when he did, he exceeded 10 touches in just one of the next 4 games before needing to be shut down again until week 14.

Tweet discussing how we should approach Javonte Williams in our 2023 fantasy football rankings.

UPDATE: even amid reports that Javonte Williams will avoid PUP, Dr. Chona's general sentiment has not waivered much. At best, we should expect a 3-4 game ramp-up:


"Reportedly on track to avoid PUP. Promising news, but would temper early expectations. These are brutal injuries (see Dobbins ’22 for reference). Data predicts ramp up period of 3-4 games, early efficiency dip ~20%. Week 8+ project to be promising."


Samaje Perine should remain plenty involved from the start, and could become an even greater value pick if this Javonte Williams news starts to suppress Perine's ADP (currently 106-ish) in the coming weeks.


Regardless, Williams' injury situation points towards a big opportunity and a big year for Perine as a one-year fill in before Williams is ready to get back to 100% in 2024.


Perine has proven more than capable when given the chance.


In 20 career games—including playoffs—where he handled 10 or more touches, Washington's 2017 4th round pick from Oklahoma has averaged:


⚫ 14 PPR points per game

⚫ 17 touches per game—including 2.8 catches on 3.1 targets per game

⚫ 78.5 scrimmage yards per game

⚫ 0.6 TDs per game (12 total)


Perine scored 15 or more PPR points in 7 of those 20 games (35%), with a career high of 30.2 PPR points in week 11 of 2022.


For what it's worth, in 13 career games where Perine had at least 15 touches, Perine's averaged jumped to 15.6 PPR points per game, noteworthy if he's the lead dog in Sean Payton's offense come week 1.


Perine should get a good opportunity to do some significant fantasy damage in Payton's offense, a scheme that was consistently among the top 10—if not top 5—in scoring, offensive yards and rushing TDs in 15 years as the Saints' head coach between 2006-2021.


🟢 Remarkably, Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of 15 years, including 9 finishes inside the top 5. His offense finished lower than 12th in scoring just once in 15 years, New Orleans first season after Drew Brees retired (2021).


🟢 Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in yards in 13 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 10 of 15 seasons. Payton's offenses led the entire NFL in yards in 6 of 15 seasons, with 2 more finishes in 2nd place.


If you're desperate to poke holes in Payton's resume, his rushing attack was not nearly as effective as his aerial attack. But it was still really strong...


🟠 The Saints did finish inside the top 13 in rushing attempts in 6 of 15 seasons—including 4 finishes inside the top 7, but they otherwise finished 17th or worst in the other 9 seasons, including 4 seasons of 26th or worse.


🟡 However, what New Orleans lacked in volume, they made up in efficiency. Despite finishing lower than 16th in rushing attempts in 9 of 15 seasons, the Saints finished 16th or better in rushing yards in 9 of 15 seasons, including 5 seasons in the top 7.


🟢 And, of course, most importantly, the lack of volume didn't stop Payton's offenses from landing inside the top 10 in rushing TDs in 11 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 7 of 15 seasons.


And it looks even better at the individual level for RBs in Payton's system...


🟢 Sean Payton produced at least one top 12 fantasy football RB in 11 of 15 seasons as the Saints' Head Coach.


🟢 One of the few NFL coaches who can support two fantasy football RBs, Sean Payton produced two different top 36 RBs in 12 of his 15 seasons. Names on that list include Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Aaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.


Here's exactly how Saints RBs finished in fantasy football under Sean Payton:


🟢 2006: RB 9 (Reggie Bush) AND RB 16 (Deuce McAllister)


🟢 2007: RB 11 (Reggie Bush) and RB 35 (Aaron Stecker)


🟠 2008: RB 22 (Pierre Thomas) and RB 29 (Reggie Bush)


🟠 2009: RB 18 (Pierre Thomas) and RB 28 (Reggie Bush)


🔴 2010: RB 48 (Chris Ivory)


🟢 2011: RB 5 (Darren Sproles) AND RB 21 (Pierre Thomas)


🟢 2012: RB 12 (Darren Sproles) and RB 32 (Pierre Thomas)


🟡 2013: RB 16 (Pierre Thomas) AND RB 24 (Darren Sproles)


🟡 2014: RB 15 (Mark Ingram) and RB 33 (Pierre Thomas)


🟢 2015: RB 11 (Mark Ingram)


🟢 2016: RB 8 (Mark Ingram)


🟢🟢🟢 2017: RB 3 (Alvin Kamara) AND RB 6 (Mark Ingram)


🟢 2018: RB 4 (Alvin Kamara) and RB 32 (Mark Ingram)


🟢 2019: RB 9 (Alvin Kamara) and RB 28 (Latavius Murray)


🟢 2020: RB 1 (Alvin Kamara) and RB 34 (Latavius Murray)


🟢 2021: RB 8 (Alvin Kamara)


Now entering his age 28 campaign as the tentative lead back in a Sean Payton offense that *should* score plenty of points while Javonte Williams works his way back from a serious injury, Perine appears teed up for a career year, at least early in the season.


He's best approached as a high end flex that could offer RB 2 weeks early in the season before starting to tail off a bit later in the season as Williams ramps up. That makes him decisively more attractive in season-long leagues than best ball leagues where you can't drop him later in the year. It also makes Perine a late-season "sell high" candidate.


That said, if Dobbins' injury history is a solid blue print and Payton's coaching past tells us anything, Perine *should* stay involved for all 17 games even when Williams IS ready to rock.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟡 Entering his age 28 campaign, Samaje Perine is currently the 42nd RB drafted in dynasty start ups. Current managers should look to ride a hot start and consider "selling high" after a few weeks into the 2023 season.


Redraft Leagues: 🟢 Samaje Perine is currently the RB 35, drafted around pick 107 overall (late 9th round). Already a strong later-round pick, Perine's ADP could start to drop even further after recent news that Javonte Williams avoided the PUP list. Perine is one of my favorite 9th round picks in 2023, especially in Zero or Hero RB drafts.


Perine is currently #87 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings—a whopping 18-19(ish) spots ahead of his current ADP.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟢 Samaje Perine is currently the RB 34, drafted around pick 106 overall (late 9th round). Already a strong later-round pick, Perine's ADP could start to drop even further after recent news that Javonte Williams avoided the PUP list. Perine is one of my favorite 9th round picks in 2023, especially in Zero or Hero RB drafts.


Perine is currently #87 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings—a whopping 18-19(ish) spots ahead of his current ADP.


Denver Broncos Wide Receivers

Fantasy Football Rankings and Preview

🟢 WR Jerry Jeudy

2022 was a disappointing year for Jerry Jeudy (and everyone else in Denver). Following high hopes of being Russell Wilson's next Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf, Jeudy instead was much more Freddie Swain, catching 67 of 100 targets for 972 yards and 6 TDs.


He averaged 13.6 PPR points per game on his way to a WR 22 finish, which somehow seems higher than one might have guessed.


In fact, candidly, after 3 seasons, Jeudy hasn't done a heckuva lot to justify being the 2020 15th overall pick out of Alabama.


In 39 career games where he's played at least 38% of the snaps, Jeudy has averaged:


⚫ 11.3 PPR points per game

⚫ 6.8 targets per game

⚫ 4 catches per game

⚫ 58.6 yards per game

⚫ 0.2 TDs per game (9 total)

⚫ he also has 5 carries, 42 rushing yards, no rushing TDs and no lost fumbles


Jeudy has scored under 15 PPR points in 30 of those 39 games (77%), including 17 games under 10 PPR points (44%).


Of course, the talented 24 year old has flashed a nice ceiling at times, scoring 20 or more PPR points in 5 of 39 games (13%), including a career high of 33.3 PPR points just this past season against the Chiefs in week 14 (9 targets, 8 catches, 73 yards, 3 TDs).


Candidly, I struck out on Jerry Jeudy (and this offense as a whole) last year. But I'm stepping right back up to the plate and targeting him (and them) again in 2023.


Why?


As a player, Jeudy has long been a tantalizing talent waiting to explode. And despite last year's bummer of a campaign, he DID still set new career highs in catches, yards and TDs, so he's headed in the right direction.


Add his route running savvy and Sean Payton's quick-hit offense, and Jeudy has everything it takes to go nuts with Sean Payton calling the shots in 2023.


In 15 years as the New Orleans Saints Head Coach between 2006 and 2021, Payton orchestrated elite offenses that routinely finished in the top 10—if not top 5—in scoring, offensive yards, passing yards, and passing TDs:


🟢 Remarkably, Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of 15 years he coached the team, including 9 finishes inside the top 5. His offense finished lower than 12th in scoring just once in 15 years, which was New Orleans' first season after Drew Brees retired (2021).


🟢 Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in yards in 13 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 10 of 15 seasons. Payton's offenses led the entire NFL in yards in 6 of 15 seasons, with 2 more finishes in 2nd place.


🟢 His offenses were particularly effective in the passing game, finishing inside the top 5 in passing attempts in 9 of 15 campaigns, with just 4 seasons outside of the top 15.


🟢 The Saints finished inside the top 5 in passing yards in 11 of 15 seasons, including 5 different seasons of leading the entire NFL in passing yards.


🟢 And, unfathomably, they never finished lower than 16th in passing TDs, finishing inside the top 11 in an astonishing 14 of 15 years—including 7 finishes inside the top 2.


Surprisingly, despite the consistent aerial success and frequent MVP-caliber campaigns from Drew Brees, the WR position was less consistent at the individual level for Sean Payton's offenses (especially when Jimmy Graham was dominating the box scores between 2011-2014).


But there certainly have been some shining stars—Marques Colston routinely finished as a top 15 WR between 2006-2014, and Michael Thomas was a top 7 option for 4 straight seasons under Payton between 2016-2019.


Here's how Saints WRs finished in fantasy football in 15 seasons with Payton:


🟡 2006: WR 16 (Marques Colston) and WR 40 (Devery Henderson)


🟢 2007: WR 8 (Marques Colston) and WR 42 (David Patten)


🟡 2008: WR 16 (Lance Moore), WR 36 (Marques Colston) and WR 46 (Devery Henderson)


🟡 2009: WR 16 (Marques Colston), WR 27 (Robert Meachem) and WR 42 (Devery Henderson)


🟡 2010: WR 14 (Marques Colston), WR 23 (Lance Moore) and WR 48 (Robert Meachem)


🟢 2011: WR 10 (Marques Colston) and WR 33 (Lance Moore)


🟡 2012: WR 14 (Marques Colston) and WR 21 (Lance Moore)


🔴 2013: WR 25 (Marques Colston)


🔴 2014: WR 35 (Marques Colston) and WR 37 (Kenny Stills)


🟡 2015: WR 13 (Brandin Cooks) and WR 33 (Willie Snead)


🟢 2016: WR 7 (Michael Thomas), WR 10 (Brandin Cooks) AND WR 31 (Willie Snead)


🟢 2017: WR 6 (Michael Thomas) and WR 33 (Tedd Ginn)


🟢 2018: WR 6 (Michael Thomas)


🟢🟢🟢 2019: WR 1 (Michael Thomas)


🔴 2020: WR 41 (Emmanuel Sanders)


🔴 2021: WR 43 (Marquez Callaway)


Of course, Jeudy DOES possess the talent to be Payton's next Colston/Thomas, even if his body type and play style is significantly different.


And then there's Russell Wilson...


Yes, last year was awful and Wilson has now stacked up back-to-back stinkers. But as far as his wide receivers go, 2022 seems to be much more of an anomaly than the start of a trend.


Consider this note straight from my 2022 preview of the Broncos (I was wrong about them as a whole, but these are all true facts)...


"The 2021 Seahawks finished 2nd to last in passing attempts. That didn't stop DK Metcalf from finishing as the WR 14 and Tyler Lockett as the WR 23 (and that's with Russ even missing three games and not looking like himself when he came back).


The year before that, Seattle finished just 17th in pass attempts yet Wilson buoyed Metcalf and Lockett to WR7 and WR 8 finishes.


The year before that, Metcalf finished as the WR 33 in his rookie year while Lockett enjoyed a WR 13 season.


Russ also created a WR 7 campaign in 2015 (Doug Baldwin) and a WR 8 campaign in 2016 (Baldwin).


TLDR; Russ gets his pass catchers fantasy points, especially his top 2 guys."


And as for Jeudy? The 24 year old is playing for a shiny new contract in this, his 4th year as a pro.


So if we can get any of Marques Colston, Michael Thomas, Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf out of Jeudy— and we certainly *should*—then Jeudy is someone I want on my fantasy football roster in 2023.


For what it's worth Vegas sportsbooks appear to be expecting a step backwards for Jeudy, projecting him for over/under 900.5 yards and 4.5 TDs, both of which would be lower than last year (972 yards and 6 TDs).


While that's certainly concerning, I'm much more likely to take the overs than avoid him in fantasy football.


In 2023, Jeudy is best treated as a higher-end WR 3 with upside for a lot more.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 Still just 24 years old, Jerry Jeudy is currently the 27th WR taken in dynasty startup drafts. He's a "buy low" candidate for dynasty league managers.


Redraft Leagues: 🟢 Jerry Jeudy is currently being drafted as fantasy's WR 24 around pick 61 overall (early 6th round) in 2023 PPR leagues. There's a lot of upside for that low of a cost, and he's one of my favorite 6th round draft picks in 2023.


Jeudy is currently #41st overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Jerry Jeudy is currently being drafted as fantasy's WR 20 around pick 39 overall (early 4th round) in Underdog best ball drafts. Whereas he's a value in "normal" PPR leagues, 39th overall is a pretty expensive price to pay when surrounded by names like Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, Lamar Jackson, Keenan Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, Najee Harris, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Joe Burrow, Mike Williams, Joe Mixon, DJ Moore, Justin Fields and Christian Kirk.


I'll still take Jeudy from time to time, but prefer a lot of names on that list instead.


Max best ball exposure: 15%

🟡 WR Courtland Sutton

Like everyone else in Denver, 2022 was a bummer of a year for Courtland Sutton.


There were hopes of Sutton and teammate Jerry Jeudy forming a 1-2 punch that looked something like DK Metcalf + Tyler Lockett, but instead it was more like David Moore and Jaron Brown.


I'm being facetious, of course, but there's no denying that 2022 was a massive letdown for Sutton and pretty much anyone in a Bronco uniform.


In 15 games, Sutton caught 64 of 109 targets for 829 yards and just 2 TDs. His 10.6 PPR points per game made him the 43rd best WR in fantasy football last season after being drafted as the WR 18 all summer.


In fact, candidly, after an encouraging 2019 campaign in which Sutton caught 72 of 124 targets for 1,112 yards and 6 TDs (all career highs), the 2018 2nd round pick (40th overall) out of SMU has done very little to inspire confidence as someone with upside in fantasy football.


In 61 career games where he's played at least 67% of the offensive snaps, Sutton has averaged:

⚫ 10.6 PPR points per game

⚫ 6.7 targets

⚫ 3.8 catches

⚫ 54.4 yards

⚫ 0.2 TDs (14 total)


Sutton has landed below 10 PPR points in 32 of those 61 games (52%) while hitting 20 PPR points in just 5 of 61 games (8%).


Heck, he has more games under 5 PPR points (15) than he does games over 15 PPR points (14).


And yet, 2023 offers hope (again) of a career year for Sutton in a Sean Payton offense that should easily rebound in a big way from last year.


In 15 years as the New Orleans Saints Head Coach between 2006 and 2021, Payton orchestrated elite offenses that routinely finished in the top 10—if not top 5—in scoring, offensive yards, passing yards, and passing TDs:


🟢 Remarkably, Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of 15 years he coached the team, including 9 finishes inside the top 5. His offense finished lower than 12th in scoring just once in 15 years, which was New Orleans' first season after Drew Brees retired (2021).


🟢 Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in yards in 13 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 10 of 15 seasons. Payton's offenses led the entire NFL in yards in 6 of 15 seasons, with 2 more finishes in 2nd place.


🟢 His offenses were particularly effective in the passing game, finishing inside the top 5 in passing attempts in 9 of 15 campaigns, with just 4 seasons outside of the top 15.


🟢 The Saints finished inside the top 5 in passing yards in 11 of 15 seasons, including 5 different seasons of leading the entire NFL in passing yards.


🟢 And, unfathomably, they never finished lower than 16th in passing TDs, finishing inside the top 11 in an astonishing 14 of 15 years—including 7 finishes inside the top 2.


Surprisingly, despite the consistent aerial success and frequent MVP-caliber campaigns from Drew Brees, the WR position was less consistent at the individual level for Sean Payton's offenses (especially when Jimmy Graham was dominating the box scores between 2011-2014).


But there certainly have been some shining stars—Marques Colston routinely finished as a top 15 WR between 2006-2014, and Michael Thomas was a top 7 option for 4 straight seasons under Payton between 2016-2019.


Here's how Saints WRs finished in fantasy football in 15 seasons with Payton:


🟡 2006: WR 16 (Marques Colston) and WR 40 (Devery Henderson)


🟢 2007: WR 8 (Marques Colston) and WR 42 (David Patten)


🟡 2008: WR 16 (Lance Moore), WR 36 (Marques Colston) and WR 46 (Devery Henderson)


🟡 2009: WR 16 (Marques Colston), WR 27 (Robert Meachem) and WR 42 (Devery Henderson)


🟡 2010: WR 14 (Marques Colston), WR 23 (Lance Moore) and WR 48 (Robert Meachem)


🟢 2011: WR 10 (Marques Colston) and WR 33 (Lance Moore)


🟡 2012: WR 14 (Marques Colston) and WR 21 (Lance Moore)


🔴 2013: WR 25 (Marques Colston)


🔴 2014: WR 35 (Marques Colston) and WR 37 (Kenny Stills)


🟡 2015: WR 13 (Brandin Cooks) and WR 33 (Willie Snead)


🟢 2016: WR 7 (Michael Thomas), WR 10 (Brandin Cooks) AND WR 31 (Willie Snead)


🟢 2017: WR 6 (Michael Thomas) and WR 33 (Tedd Ginn)


🟢 2018: WR 6 (Michael Thomas)


🟢🟢🟢 2019: WR 1 (Michael Thomas)


🔴 2020: WR 41 (Emmanuel Sanders)


🔴 2021: WR 43 (Marquez Callaway)


Concerningly, you might notice that Sean Payton's history of supporting two fantasy football WRs isn't exactly glowing. So is there room for Sutton if Jerry Jeudy is the WR 1?


Of course, plenty of that can also be explained by recognizing that Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, etc. aren't exactly the most formidable WR 2 options on the planet, and Sutton is undoubtedly a more talented option than pretty much every WR 2 that Payton has coached (except Brandin Cooks in 2016).


In fact, one could certainly look to that 2016 season for optimism when BOTH Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks finished inside the top 10 of WRs.


And then there's Russell Wilson, who does have a long history of supporting two fantasy football WRs despite playing in run-heavy offenses for most of his career.


Yes, last year was awful and Wilson has now stacked up back-to-back stinkers. But as far as his wide receivers go, 2022 seems to be much more of an anomaly than the start of a trend.


Consider this note straight from my 2022 preview of the Broncos (I was wrong about them as a whole, but these are all true facts)...


"The 2021 Seahawks finished 2nd to last in passing attempts. That didn't stop DK Metcalf from finishing as the WR 14 and Tyler Lockett as the WR 23 (and that's with Russ even missing three games and not looking like himself when he came back).


The year before that, Seattle finished just 17th in pass attempts yet Wilson buoyed Metcalf and Lockett to WR7 and WR 8 finishes.


The year before that, Metcalf finished as the WR 33 in his rookie year while Lockett enjoyed a WR 13 season.


Russ also created a WR 7 campaign in 2015 (Doug Baldwin) and a WR 8 campaign in 2016 (Baldwin).


TLDR; Russ gets his pass catchers fantasy points, especially his top 2 guys."


For what it's worth, Vegas Sportsbooks appear to be expecting a significant step back for Sutton, projecting him for over/under 675.5 yards which would be the fewest in 5 full seasons as a pro.


(They're also projecting him for over/under 4.5 TDs; he's scored more than 4 just once in his 5 year career.)


Now entering his age 28 season, Sutton is best approached as WR 4 with upside for a lot more if the Broncos takes off with all the pieces in place.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟡 Courtland Sutton is currently the WR 47 in dynasty startup drafts. He's a "hold" for current dynasty managers and a possible "buy low" for WR needy teams.


Redraft Leagues: 🟢 Courtland Sutton is currently drafted as fantasy's WR 46 around pick 115 overall (mid 10th round) in 2023 PPR leagues. He's a potentially big time value pick at that cost if the Broncos offense can get going with Dr. Sean Payton calling the shots. Well worth the upside that late.


Sutton is currently #89 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings, way ahead of his current #115 ADP.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Courtland Sutton is currently drafted as fantasy's WR 48 around pick 97 overall (early 9th round) in Underdog best ball drafts. While the price itself is perfectly reasonable considering the upside in a Sean Payton offense, it's also a very competitive spot in 2023 best ball drafts and tough to ignore some of the names around him...


Elijah Moore, Zay Flowers, Javonte Williams, Rashod Bateman, Tua Tagovailoa, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Michael Thomas, James Cook, Evan Engram, Antonio Gibson, Skyy Moore, Zach Charbonnet, AJ Dillon, Dak Prescott, Samaje Perine, David Njoku, Pat Freiermuth, Rashaad Penny and Odell Beckham are all worth considering in Sutton vicinity.


Max best ball exposure: 15%

🟡 WR Tim Patrick

The lone bright spot of Tim Patrick's 2022 was that he didn't have to play in the laughing stock offense of the NFL. Unfortunately, the former undrafted free agent out of Utah tore his ACL in early August and missed the entire season.


Patrick's recovery is reportedly going well as he's been a full participant in Broncos camp. Not only that, but NFL Network's James Palmer recently said that multiple people inside the Denver facility believe Tim Patrick is "the best football player" in the Denver WR room.


Prior to the shredded knee, Patrick had back-to-back seasons of 51+ catches, 730+ yards and 5+ TDs in 2020 and 2021, good enough for fantasy finishes of WR 44 and WR 42.


But heading into 2023 with heavy target competition—Patrick will contend with 2nd round pick Marvin Mims and Greg Dulcich just to be 3rd or 4th in line for targets behind Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton—Patrick might prove to be a better real life boost to the Broncos offense than a consistent fantasy football contributor.


In 39 career games where Patrick has played at least 62% of the offensive snaps, he's averaged:

⚫ 9.8 PPR points per game

⚫ 5.5 targets

⚫ 3.4 catches

⚫ 47 yards

⚫ 0.3 TDs (11 total)


He scored fewer than 10 PPR points in 21 of those 39 games (54%) while reaching 15 PPR points in just 7 of them (18%).


For what it's worth, Patrick has hit 20 PPR points twice, including a career high of 23.3 points in week 4 of 2021 (7 targets, 6 catches, 113 yards, 1 TD).


For those looking for optimism, it is in the realistic range of possibilities that Patrick finds himself no lower than 3rd on the target totem pole in a Sean Payton offense, making him an intriguing late round pick in 2023 drafts.


In 15 years as the New Orleans Saints Head Coach between 2006 and 2021, Payton orchestrated elite offenses that routinely finished in the top 10—if not top 5—in scoring, offensive yards, passing yards, and passing TDs:


🟢 Remarkably, Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of 15 years he coached the team, including 9 finishes inside the top 5. His offense finished lower than 12th in scoring just once in 15 years, which was New Orleans' first season after Drew Brees retired (2021).


🟢 Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in yards in 13 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 10 of 15 seasons. Payton's offenses led the entire NFL in yards in 6 of 15 seasons, with 2 more finishes in 2nd place.


🟢 His offenses were particularly effective in the passing game, finishing inside the top 5 in passing attempts in 9 of 15 campaigns, with just 4 seasons outside of the top 15.


🟢 The Saints finished inside the top 5 in passing yards in 11 of 15 seasons, including 5 different seasons of leading the entire NFL in passing yards.


🟢 And, unfathomably, they never finished lower than 16th in passing TDs, finishing inside the top 11 in an astonishing 14 of 15 years—including 7 finishes inside the top 2.


Surprisingly, despite the consistent aerial success and frequent MVP-caliber campaigns from Drew Brees, the WR position was less consistent at the individual level for Sean Payton's offenses (especially when Jimmy Graham was dominating the box scores between 2011-2014).


But there certainly have been some shining stars—Marques Colston routinely finished as a top 15 WR between 2006-2014, and Michael Thomas was a top 7 option for 4 straight seasons under Payton between 2016-2019.


Here's how Saints WRs finished in fantasy football in 15 seasons with Payton:


🟡 2006: WR 16 (Marques Colston) and WR 40 (Devery Henderson)


🟢 2007: WR 8 (Marques Colston) and WR 42 (David Patten)


🟡 2008: WR 16 (Lance Moore), WR 36 (Marques Colston) and WR 46 (Devery Henderson)


🟡 2009: WR 16 (Marques Colston), WR 27 (Robert Meachem) and WR 42 (Devery Henderson)


🟡 2010: WR 14 (Marques Colston), WR 23 (Lance Moore) and WR 48 (Robert Meachem)


🟢 2011: WR 10 (Marques Colston) and WR 33 (Lance Moore)


🟡 2012: WR 14 (Marques Colston) and WR 21 (Lance Moore)


🔴 2013: WR 25 (Marques Colston)


🔴 2014: WR 35 (Marques Colston) and WR 37 (Kenny Stills)


🟡 2015: WR 13 (Brandin Cooks) and WR 33 (Willie Snead)


🟢 2016: WR 7 (Michael Thomas), WR 10 (Brandin Cooks) AND WR 31 (Willie Snead)


🟢 2017: WR 6 (Michael Thomas) and WR 33 (Tedd Ginn)


🟢 2018: WR 6 (Michael Thomas)


🟢🟢🟢 2019: WR 1 (Michael Thomas)


🔴 2020: WR 41 (Emmanuel Sanders)


🔴 2021: WR 43 (Marquez Callaway)


Concerningly, you might notice that Sean Payton's history of supporting two fantasy football WRs isn't exactly glowing, let alone three.


Of course, plenty of that can also be explained by recognizing that Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, etc. aren't exactly the most formidable WR 2 options on the planet.


But are we sure that Tim Patrick is markedly better than any of those guys, especially coming off of a torn ACL? And is he a sure bet to run ahead of Marvin Mims and/or Greg Dulcich?


Unfortunately, entering his age 30 season fresh from an ACL tear and stuck in a crowded pass-catching crew, it's likely that we've already seen the best from Tim Patrick in fantasy football. He's best approached as a WR 5 in 2023.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟠 Entering his age 30 season, Tim Patrick is currently the WR 93 in dynasty startup drafts. He's merely a "hold" who theoretically could come into "sell high" value if he gets any early meaningful run in the Broncos offense.


Redraft Leagues: 🟠 Tim Patrick is currently drafted as the WR 85 around pick 214 overall (late 18th round) in 2023 PPR drafts. On the off chance that your league actually drafts into the 18th round, he's a terrific value at that price.


Patrick is currently #173 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings, worthy of a mid 15th round pick.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟡 Tim Patrick is currently drafted as the WR 73 around pick 168 overall (14th-15th round turn) in Underdog best ball drafts.


He's one of my favorite picks in that range, as well as Jordan Love, D'Onta Foreman, Kenneth Gainwell, Tyjae Spears and Raheem Mostert.


Max best ball exposure: 15%

🟠 WR Marvin Mims

With the 63rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft (round 2, pick 32)—the 1st ever pick of the Sean Payton era—the Denver Broncos selected Oklahoma WR Marvin Mims.


An explosive playmaker with an elite vertical skill set for a rookie, Mims plays bigger than his 5'11," 183 pound frame. He has a limited route tree that may require time for him to adapt to the next level, which works out well with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Greg Dulcich already commanding targets in 2023.


Mims is off the radar in 2023 redraft leagues, but Sean Payton is reportedly planning a very specific role for the 21 year old rookie, making him an intriguing late round best ball flier considering his big play ability combined with Russell Wilson, who's long been known to be an elite thrower of the deep ball.


Long term, Jeudy and Patrick are free agents following the 2024 season, and Sutton has been the subject of trade rumors for months, making Mims an intriguing 1st-2nd round rookie pick in dynasty leagues.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 Just 21 years old, Marvin Mims is currently the WR 46 in dynasty startups drafts. He is currently #13 overall in my 2023 rookie rankings.


Redraft Leagues: 🔴 Marvin Mims currently goes undrafted in 2023 PPR leagues. That's the way it should be.


Patrick is currently #173 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings, worthy of a mid 15th round pick.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟠 Marvin Mims is currently drafted as the WR 70 around pick 159 overall (early 14th round). I personally have a hard time drafting him there knowing that I can get Tim Patrick 8 picks later.


I'm more likely to use that pick on Derek Carr, Roschon Johnson, Marquez Vadles-Scantling, Cole Kmet, Matthew Stafford, Irv Smith, Taysom Hill, DJ Chark, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Jordan Love, D'Onta Foreman, Kenneth Gainwell or Tim Patrick.


Max best ball exposure: 15%

Denver Broncos Tight Ends

Fantasy Football Rankings and Preview

🟡 TE Greg Dulcich

With the 80th overall pick (3rd round) in last year's draft, the Denver Broncos picked UCLA tight end Greg Dulcich.


The rookie went on to be one of the Broncos' few 2022 bright spots, putting together a strong debut campaign and catching 33 of 55 targets for 411 yards and 2 TDs in just 10 games.


In 8 games specifically with Russell Wilson playing QB, Dulcich averaged:

⚫ 9.11 PPR points per game

⚫ 5.5 targets

⚫ 3.25 catches

⚫ 43.63 yards

⚫ had 2 TDs


Respectably, Dulcich was able to land between 12-15 PPR points in 4 of 8 games with Wilson.


Now entering just his age 23 season, Dulcich will look to build on last year's success, this time in a Sean Payton offense that turned Jimmy Graham into a top 2 TE for 4 straight years between 2011 and 2014, including two TE 1 finishes.


(Ben Watson was also the TE 8 in 2015, and Jared Cook was the TE 7 in 2019).


In 15 years as the New Orleans Saints Head Coach between 2006 and 2021, Payton orchestrated elite offenses that routinely finished in the top 10—if not top 5—in scoring, offensive yards, passing yards, and passing TDs:


🟢 Remarkably, Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in scoring in 12 of 15 years he coached the team, including 9 finishes inside the top 5. His offense finished lower than 12th in scoring just once in 15 years, which was New Orleans' first season after Drew Brees retired (2021).


🟢 Payton's offenses finished in the top 10 in yards in 13 of 15 seasons, including top 5 finishes in 10 of 15 seasons. Payton's offenses led the entire NFL in yards in 6 of 15 seasons, with 2 more finishes in 2nd place.


🟢 His offenses were particularly effective in the passing game, finishing inside the top 5 in passing attempts in 9 of 15 campaigns, with just 4 seasons outside of the top 15.


🟢 The Saints finished inside the top 5 in passing yards in 11 of 15 seasons, including 5 different seasons of leading the entire NFL in passing yards.


🟢 And, unfathomably, they never finished lower than 16th in passing TDs, finishing inside the top 11 in an astonishing 14 of 15 years—including 7 finishes inside the top 2.


Dulcich, of course, is a part of a crowded pass catching crew in Denver, competing for targets with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and maybe even 2nd round WR Marvin Mims.


That's a lot of mouths to feed and Dulcich is unlikely to be a consistent weapon in fantasy football in 2023. That said, he should also have his fair share of big weeks and is best approached as a high end TE 2 with week-to-week top 10 upside.


He's not someone I would draft in "normal" sized leagues, but Dulcich will likely be one of my favorite streaming options in 2023.


Dynasty Leagues: 🟢 Entering his age 23 season, Dulcich is currently drafted as fantasy's TE 11 in dynasty startups. He's an exciting "hold" for current managers.


Redraft Leagues: 🟡 Greg Dulcich is currently drafted as fantasy's TE 16 around pick 148 overall (early 13th round) in 2023 PPR drafts. He's not someone I would spend a draft pick on in "normal" sized leagues without a TE premium, but he'll be a popular waiver wire streamer in 2023.


Best Ball Leagues: 🟢 Greg Dulcich is currently drafted as fantasy's TE 11 around pick 129 overall (late 11th round) in Underdog best ball drafts.


He's one of my favorite targets in that range if I'm looking for my 2nd (or sometimes even 3rd) TE. other frequent targets include Zay Jones, Elijah Mitchell, Jerick McKinnon, Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Williams, Dalton Kincaid, Russell Wilson and Dalton Schultz.


Patrick is currently #128 overall in my 2023 Draft Rankings, almost exactly where he's usually drafted in best ball.


Max best ball exposure: 25%


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