Beware the 2,000 touch cliff for aging running backs

I studied 910 running back seasons since 2002 to see if there was a point where aging running backs see a dip in their production for fantasy football - and there is. Once a running back reaches 2,000 total touches, between regular season and playoffs, most of their production starts to decline.

Let's take a look at what aging running backs have crossed, or are about to cross, that threshold in 2025 and what it means for how we're drafting - or not drafting - them in 2025 at Basement Brewed Fantasy Football.

Photo credit: Brandon Sloter, Getty Images

Saquon Barkley

Saquon is coming off one of the best running back seasons in recent history, and it could've been better had he converted a few more touchdowns that ended up in Jalen Hurts' rushing column. There's no reason to change his outlook for 2025, right? Right?!

Well...

For one, he's coming into the season with 1,996 career touches - meaning he'll hit the cumulative touch threshold during week one unless he pulls an Aaron Rodgers.

Not only that, but he had over 350 touches last season alone, and since 2002, RBs who handle over 350 touches in a season, on average, see their production dip by nearly 6 PPR fantasy points per game. Now, some of those players are clearly statistical outliers for a number of reasons, and there are players who actually saw an increase, but those players had an average cumulative touch count of under 900. Saquon is double that.

Saquon Barkley's current ADP across various redraft and best ball sites is between the #2 and #3 pick. In my first edition of the Draft Dominator, Saquon is ranked #7. Despite him likely ending up as a solid RB1 this season, we think other players deserve the look ahead of him, so for the most part, we're out at his current cost.

Christian McCaffrey

CMC comes into 2025 with 2,013 career touches - and his own set of injury concerns. Prepare for trouble! And make it double!

Injuries have always been a concern for CMC, so much so that he's only played three full seasons since 2019 (and, naturally, all three of those were outstanding seasons for him.)

His draft ADP across sites reflects this risk/reward status with him generally going in the back half of round one. If he's available during your 12-team drafts at the 1-2 turn, we're cautiously on board with accepting the risk given his low touch totals last season - but make sure you have a backup plan ready.

Derrick Henry

Last season I was all-in on Derrick Henry, and it paid off in a big way. He was the player that bucked the 2,000 cumulative touch trend last season, averaging over 20 PPR points per game despite having a very limited role in the passing game.

Are we changing our tune this year?

Well, for us, it's a cost problem. Last year at this time, Derrick Henry was going in the late second round. Now he's going in the late first or early second round. In our Draft Dominator, we have Derrick Henry at 19.

With the return of Keaton Mitchell, plus Justice Hill handling the pass down work, plus now over 2,700 (!) touches for his career, there's just enough smoke that we think he might be over-drafted for fantasy football in 2025, despite how efficient that run game can be with Lamar as a secondary threat for defenses to consider.

Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara comes into this season with 2,242 cumulative touches in his career. Now entering his age 30 season, with what will likely be a really bad offense, is his time up?

Well, he has two things going for him that might save him for this season - assuming he stays healthy.

First off, there's zero competition behind him. Devin Neal could end up being a solid backup - or maybe even the starter of the future (hi Dynasty teams!), but he's not going to take meaningful work from Kamara as a sixth-round pick during his rookie season. Everyone else is either made of glass (Kendre Miller) or not really good at football (Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire).

In addition, he's almost certainly going to be in the top two on this offense in targets. He normally is to begin with, but now you have unproven QBs who will need to make checkdown throws to keep drives alive - and that's on top of the designed pass looks and screens he's historically had going for him.

We have Kamara right in line with average ADP for PPR leagues, making him a fine pick in 2025 as the focal point of the Saints offense. But beyond this season? We'll see.

Joe Mixon

Mixon is entering his age 29 season with more than 2,300 cumulative touches to his name. He's never been a super-efficient runner, so there are legitimate concerns that his fall from grace might be fast and swift. On top of that, the Texans added Nick Chubb in free agency and drafted Woody Marks, a 24 year old rookie who is good running back overall but even better in the passing game, giving Mixon the most theoretical competition he's had in years.

Despite all that, his ADP heavily reflects the risk. Assuming health, he should still be good for around 15 touches a game, and as a late fifth rounder, we're right in line with that draft position for him - especially if he's your RB2, instead of your RB1, in drafts.

How are you handling aging running backs in the 2025 fantasy football season?

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