Breece Hall or Aaron Jones: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 11, 2025 season)

When you're facing a tough start/sit decision on your fantasy football team, you may end up having to choose between Breece Hall or Aaron Jones. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

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Game Scripts

The Jets are entering this game as pathetic 11-point road underdogs with a dangerously low projected team total of 16.0 points, the 2nd fewest among all 30 teams on the week 11 slate. The pathetic spread suggests a very pass-heavy approach while the dangerously low projected team total suggests touchdown opportunities will be severely limited. This is an elite opportunity to fire up the Patriots D/ST.

The Vikings are entering this game as slim 3-point home favorites with a strong projected team total of 25.75 points, the 6th highest among all 30 teams on the week 11 slate. The narrow spread suggests a balanced offensive approach while the strong projected team total suggests plenty of touchdown opportunities. Bears at Vikings has a healthy over/under of 48.5 points, suggesting a sliver of shootout potential if the Bears can exceed their modest scoring expectations.

Positional Matchups

After 10 games, the Patriots present a terrifying matchup for RBs, holding them to the 4th fewest PPR points per game (17.46). They are allowing the most RB catches (6.1 per game) and 7th most RB receiving yards (38.1/game), but otherwise holding RBs to the fewest rushing yards (57.5/game), the 2nd fewest scrimmage TDs (0.3/game), and the 5th fewest PPR points per touch (0.74/game). Just 7 RBs in 10 games have been able to reach 10 PPR points against the Pats despite 12 of them handling double digit touches.

After 9 games, the Bears present a friendly matchup for RBs, holding them to the 14th fewest catches and 15th fewest touchdowns but allowing the 12th most rushing yards, 13th most receiving yards, 12th most PPR points per game and 10th most PPR points per touch (0.92). 8 RBs in 9 games have scored 10+ PPR points against the Bears.

Breece Hall: Bottom Line

I expect Breece Hall to finish, on average, around 11–15 PPR points on ~16–20 touches (~60–70 rushing yards, ~25–35 receiving yards, 3–5 catches), and ~0–1 total TDs.

Aaron Jones: Bottom Line

I expect Aaron Jones to finish, on average, around 10–14 PPR points on ~10–14 touches (~65–85 scrimmage yards), with ~3–5 targets (2–4 catches) and 0–1 TD.

Should you start Breece Hall or Aaron Jones?

It's probably going to take Breece Hall getting those 16-20 touches to provide any value for your team, but there's not really a scenario where he doesn't get that amount. The hope is that they use him more in the passing game given the matchups.

Ultimately, one of these backs is splitting time and one isn't, so if you want to gamble on that time share for Aaron Jones going away and him having an explosion game, you can do that if you need it. But on raw projection, I'm playing Breece Hall.

Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025

Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

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