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Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Preview

Updated: Jul 26, 2022

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Before we look at where we're going, let's take a look at where we've been. (That's a shoutout to Mader from Cars for all you fellow Dads.)

As you know, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills were an offensive juggernaut last season, scoring 28.41 points per game, the 3rd most in football. They ranked near the top of every offensive category in football, including:

  • 381.94 yards per game (5th most)

  • 67.24 plays per game (3rd most)

  • 5.7 yards per play (10th most)

  • 23.41 1st downs per game (4th most)

  • 13.88 passing first downs per game (5th most)

  • 27.12 rushing attempts per game (13th most)

  • 129.94 rushing yards per game (6th most)

  • 1.18 rushing TDs per game (8th most)

  • 7.88 rushing first downs (6th most)

  • 45.2 scoring percentage on offensive drives (5th best)

2022 looks to be no different for an offense with THE best odds of winning the Super Bowl (as of 6/21/2022), producing an MVP (Josh Allen) and, most importantly for fantasy football, leading the league in scoring (by far).


The Bills are THE team to target in fantasy football in 2022.

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Josh Allen 📈

2019 fantasy points per game: 18.04 (QB 11)

2020 fantasy points per game: 24.75 (QB 4)

2021 fantasy points per game: 23.67 (QB 1)


Key weapons lost:

  • WR Cole Beasley

  • WR Emmanuel Sanders

  • OC Brian Daboll (new OC Ken Dorsey served behind Daboll each of the last 2 years)

Key weapons added:

  • WR Jamison Crowder

  • TE OJ Howard

  • RB James Cook

  • RB Duke Johnson

  • BONUS: More playing time for Gabriel Davis

2021 recap:

Josh Allen led all QBs in fantasy scoring last season, including:

  • 4,168 passing yards (7th most)

  • 385 completions (6th most)

  • 600 passing attempts (4th most)

  • 34 passing TDs (6th most)

  • 15 interceptions

  • 700 rushing yards (3rd most)

  • 117 rushing attempts (3rd most)

  • 6 rushing TDs (3rd most)

He’s been an absolute GOAT over the last 2 seasons, playing in 32 fantasy football games (weeks 1-17), scoring at least 20 fantasy points in 65.5% of his games and topping 30 in 31.25% of his games.


Josh Allen has the best odds of winning MVP, the 6th best odds of leading the league in passing, and, most importantly, the Bills have the best odds—by far—to lead the NFL in scoring. Josh Allen is the clear-cut QB1 heading into the 2022 season.


Unfortunately, the public tends to agree, as he’s drafted as the first QB off the board on both Underdog (around pick 30) and DraftKings (much more expensive in the 2nd round around pick 17).


To be frank, 2nd round Josh Allen is too expensive for my taste, but I’ve paid the premium a couple times in the 3rd round (and he’s an auto-draft for me in the 3rd if I took Stefon Diggs and have a chance to stack the two). I prefer him in the 4th and will likely pass on him in the 3rd (especially in small leagues), but I wouldn’t fault someone for using their 3rd pick on him.


Stacking: If you drafted Allen and were able to pair him with Diggs, consider drafting Gabriel Davis around pick 50 (Underdog) - 60 (DraftKings). Other options include Dawson Knox (102 on Underdog, 75 on DraftKings) and Jamison Crowder (131 on Underdog, 167 on DraftKings).


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Devin Singletary 📉

2020 PPR points per game: 8.98 (RB 43)

2021 PPR points per game: 10.79 (RB 34)

Competition added: RB James Cook (2nd round pick in NFL draft)


Over his last 2 seasons with Josh Allen and the explosive Buffalo Bills, Devin Singletary has appeared in 33 games, averaging:

  • 10.41 PPR points per game

  • 12.79 touches

  • 10.42 carries

  • 3.03 targets

  • 2.36 catches

  • 62.24 scrimmage yards (15.06 receiving)

  • Has 10 total TDs in 33 games

Correspondingly, in his last 32 fantasy football games (weeks 1-17), Singletary has hit 20 PPR points just 1 time (and never hit 25), while hitting even just 10 PPR points just 46.88% of the time.


Zack Moss is still in town (for now) and the Bills ALSO added Duke Johnson (after nearly signing JD McKissic) before spending a 2nd round pick on James Cook. Already an unexciting flex, Singletary might fall off the fantasy radar entirely if Cook comes on strong.


After failing to finish better than RB 34 in either of the past two seasons WITHOUT James Cook in the picture, Singletary is puzzlingly the 33rd RB off the board in Underdog best ball drafts around pick 107 (9th round). It's an easy "no thank you" from me.


James Cook 📈

James Cook went from undrafted in pre-NFL-draft best ball leagues to a 9th round pick on Underdog after the Bills used the 63rd overall pick on him (2nd round) in the NFL draft. Prior to selecting Dalvin’s brother—a pass catching weapon—the Bills whiffed on signing JD McKissic before bringing in Duke Johnson, making it crystal clear they were in the market for…well…a pass catching weapon. And you could argue Cook is the best receiving RB in this draft class.


An explosive pass-catching weapon on a high-scoring offense in an unsettled backfield is a ZeroRB drafter’s dream, and there’s opportunity for Cook to become the type of player Buffalo simply hasn’t had in years. While the path for Singletary looks like a fade into irrelevance, the path for Cook appears to be receiving work at a minimum with a chance to grow from there. It seems likely that, come late in the season, Cook is a PPR RB 3 while Singletary is on the waiver wire.


James Cook is currently the 34th RB off the board in Underdog best ball drafts around pick 107 (9th round). With Singletary (who’s also drafted around pick 107) and Moss still in town (for now), that’s a bit expensive, especially considering the fact that neither Moss nor Singletary has been able to finish better than RB 34 in each of the past 2 years. For what it’s worth, forced to choose between Singletary and Cook, I’d take Cook’s upside every single time. Still, considering some of the names frequently drafted around those guys (Aaron Rodgers, Robert Woods, Melvin Gordon, Zach Ertz, Chase Edmonds, etc.), I’m finding myself most frequently passing on Buffalo’s backfield entirely.


For what it’s worth, as of 6/21/2022, James Cook has the 10th best odds of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.


Zack Moss 📉

2020 fantasy points per game: 7.82 (RB 54)

2021 fantasy points per game: 8.48 (RB 51)

Competition added: RB James Cook (2nd round pick in NFL draft)


Zack Moss faded away last season (even “serving” as a healthy inactive at times) and hasn’t finished better than RB 51 in PPR points per game since entering the league two-years ago. The Bills spent a 2nd round pick on James Cook, signaling the likely end of times for Moss in Buffalo. He can be safely ignored in 2022 outside of insanely deep fantasy football leagues.


Duke Johnson 📉

The Bills dang-near signed pass-catching specialist JD McKissic before he changed his mind and returned to Washington. The Bills’ consolation prize was follow pass-catching dynamo Duke Johnson. Johnson WAS my favorite last-round pick in pre-draft best ball leagues, but then Buffalo went and got another pass-catching back in James Cook. Far from a sure thing to even make the roster in Buffalo, Johnson can be safely left on the waiver wire in fantasy football.

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Key targets available:

  • WR Cole Beasley - 107

  • WR Emmanuel Sanders - 72

Competition added:

  • WR Jamison Crowder

  • TE OJ Howard

  • RB James Cook

Stefon Diggs📈

2020 PPR points per game: 20.54 (WR 3)

2021 PPR points per game: 16.4 (WR 11)


Stefon Diggs has finished as a WR1 in each of his two seasons with Josh Allen. He finished top 11 in every receiving category last season and top 3 in every receiving category the year before (except TDs where he finished 12th). Here are his numbers in each of the last 2 seasons:


2021:

  • 262.4 PPR points (7th most)

  • 16.4 PPR points per game (11th most)

  • 150 targets (7th most)

  • 94 catches (10th most)

  • 1,144 yards (7th most)

  • 9 TDs (9th most)

2020:

  • 328.6 PPR points (3rd most)

  • 20.54 PPR points per game (3rd most)

  • 168 targets (MOST)

  • 127 catches (MOST)

  • 1,535 (MOST)