Lamar Jackson or Bo Nix: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 16, 2025 season)

Welcome to the semifinals! To win your matchup and advance to the championship game, you may have to choose between Lamar Jackson or Bo Nix. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

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Game Scripts

The Ravens are entering this game as slim 3-point home favorites with a strong projected team total of 25.75 points, the 6th highest among all 32 teams on the week 16 slate. The narrow spread suggests a balanced offensive approach while the strong projected team total suggests plenty of touchdown opportunities. With a strong over/under of 48.5 and both teams sporting top 16 projected team totals over 22 points, Patriots @ Ravens looks like a potential shootout with no shortage of touchdown opportunities or fantasy football fireworks. This is a game you want exposure to in your week 16 lineups.

The Broncos are entering this game as slim 3-point home favorites with a decent projected team total of 24.25 points, the 11th highest among all 32 teams on the week 16 slate. The narrow spread suggests a balanced offensive approach while the decent projected team total suggests serviceable touchdown opportunities.

Positional Matchups

The Patriots present a mediocre matchup for QBs, limiting them to the 14th fewest passing yards (218.1 per game), 16th fewest rushing yards (18.4 per game), and 10th fewest rushing TDs (0.07 per game) while allowing the 10th most passing TDs (1.71 per game) and 16th most fantasy points per game (16.7). 7 QBs in 14 games have scored 15+ fantasy points against the Patriots.

The Jaguars present a mediocre matchup for QBs, allowing the 13th most passing yards (236.4 per game), 13th most passing TDs (1.64 per game), 15th most QB rushing yards (18.71 per game), 5th most QB rushing TDs (0.29 per game) and 14th most fantasy points per game (17.04). 8 QBs in 14 games have scored 17+ fantasy points against the Jaguars, making this matchup slightly more appealing than the Patriots one.

Lamar Jackson: Bottom Line

I expect Lamar Jackson to finish, on average, around 17–22 fantasy points on ~24–28 pass attempts, ~195–235 passing yards, 1–2 total TDs, and ~25–40 rushing yards in a high-total spot. He's an automatic start QB 1 in this possible shootout and mediocre matchup.

Bo Nix: Bottom Line

I expect Bo Nix to finish, on average, around 17–21 fantasy points on ~34–39 pass attempts, ~225–260 passing yards, 1–2 passing TDs, and ~15–25 rushing yards in a solid home spot (with a little volatility since the Jags have been up-and-down lately.) He's a mid-range QB 1 in this mediocre matchup.

Should you start Lamar Jackson or Bo Nix?

I said it above: I'm starting Lamar Jackson everywhere I can, unless you have another elite option on your team. We've seen the bad Lamar games, so I understand the hesitation, but the matchup - and the upside that comes with it - is too nice to pass up here.

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Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

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