NFL DFS: Week 2 Preview & Picks (DraftKings)
Updated: Sep 19, 2020
We're back for week 2 of the NFL season! Each week, we’ll be previewing the main slate on DraftKings. Our philosophy with these selections is to provide you with solid floor plays with some upside to start your roster construction, with potential GPP pivots for even further upside in tournaments.
If you'd like to see how we did in our previous weeks, you can find that here: Week 1.
Please note that the authors of this post are also players of daily fantasy sports, and the selections they make when creating their rosters may or may not include players listed below. You can find Derek Devereaux on DraftKings via the username DerekDevereaux.
This week’s lineup building beer of choice
Three Floyds Brewing Co. - Yum Yum
The name says it all. Quite a hoppy American Session Ale with a fun mixture of fruity flavors that hit as you drink it, with a nice solid malty background to it as well. A consistent go-to beer in my repertoire for really any occasion, and I've never met someone who hasn't liked it.
All lines via Westgate, current as of Saturday afternoon.
DET at GB -6, 50 total (opened at 46)
NYG at CHI -5.5, 42 total (opened at 43.5)
JAX at TEN -7.5, 44 total (no line change)
ATL at DAL -3.5, 53.5 total (opened at 50)
SF -7 at NYJ, 41.5 total (opened at 43.5)
LAR at PHI -1.5, 45.5 total (opened at 48.5)
CAR at TB -8.5, 47 total (opened at 47.5)
DEN at PIT -6.5, 40.5 total (opened at 44.5)
MIN at IND -3, 49 total (opened at 47)
BUF -5.5 at MIA, 42 total (opened at 43)
WSH at ARI -7, 46.5 total (opened at 45.5)
KC -8.5 at LAC, 47.5 total (opened at 51.5)
BAL -7.5 at HOU, 49 total (opened at 54.5)
Favorite game to target
The Atlanta/Dallas game is going to be popular, but with good reason. It currently has the highest total on the slate, the spread is close enough, and neither team is that great defensively. I think you'll have to have a piece of this game - especially in cash games. If you're trying to get away from the chalk, I like Minnesota/Indianapolis and Washington/Arizona.
I don't really hate any of the other games, but for many of the low total games, I'd only consider a small piece of them. Im not really targeting any skill players from LA Rams/Philadelphia and I’ll probably only have one or two players in consideration for Sam Francisco/NY Jets and Denver/Pittsburgh.
Aaron Rodgers, $6900, GB (at DET)
Is he still good at football? Yes. Is he going to throw for four touchdowns again like he did last week? Maybe not. But you have to love the matchup against a Lions defense that looks like it might be worse than advertised. Our Confidence Heat Map thinks so, too. I think he could be chalky, so this might be more of a cash play, but the volume should be there.
Kyler Murray, $6100, ARI (vs. WSH)
The Washington defense looked really good last week, but they were going against an offensive line that was very banged up. Kyler, meanwhile, showed off his playmaking ability against a better defense in San Francisco, both with his arm and with his legs. I think the latter part can neutralize this defense a bit, and if we're getting 50+ combined rushes and passes again this week, this is the most underpriced QB on the slate.
Mitchell Trubisky, $5500, CHI (vs. NYG)
DraftKings may just continue to underprice him all year. Of course, the risk is high - he could be pulled for Nick Foles pretty much at any moment - but while he's out there, he's got the upside to make plays. He looked horrible through three quarters last week, and then it was comeback season, and he ended up easily smashing his low price tag. This Giants defense doesn't scare me too much, so if we can get to an easily manageable 20 DK points, you have to consider it.
Potential GPP pivots: Josh Allen ($6700, vs. MIA), Philip Rivers ($5900, vs. MIN)
Ezekiel Elliott, $8200, DAL (vs. ATL)
There is a lot of opportunity cost at RB this week. Could you pay down and take a chance? Sure, but why would you when you have an underpriced Ezekiel Elliott in a smash spot as the favored RB in the highest total on the slate? The volume is there for Zeke, and he should eat. Speaking of volume...
Derrick Henry, $7900, TEN (vs. JAX)
31 carries last week! Yes, his price went up a bit, but he's on a run-first team that is a nine point home favorite. Look, you can fade anyone in GPPs if the ownership is too high, but I don't understand how Derrick Henry is not the first person you plug in to your cash lineup. (Quite frankly, Zeke might be the second.) Our Confidence Heat Map loves his chances of feasting, too - don't overthink this one.
A quick note on the Indianapolis RB situation
Jonathan Taylor ($5700) was announced as "the guy" coming into Week 2. But that buzz has been there since the preseason. I don't think we'll see Taylor truly dominate the touches with Mack done for the year; Nyheim Hines ($5300) will surely be involved, especially on passing downs. And it was Hines who had the goal-line touchdown last week, too. Keep an eye on who the hype follows, and the other could be a sneaky GPP play. I'd rather pay for the guys above in cash, though.
Potential GPP pivots: Raheem Mostert ($6400, at NYJ), Kenyan Drake ($5900, vs. WSH), Ronald Jones II ($5200, vs. CAR)
Davante Adams, $8100, GB (vs. DET)
Hi ho, hi ho. Back to the well we go! He's a target monster and he's going against a poor Lions defense with no secondary. Unless his ankle falls off, DraftKings underpriced him - again. Fire him up as WR1 - I don't think anyone else is near him.
Amari Cooper, $6300, DAL (vs. ATL)
Quite frankly, all of the pass catchers are viable in this game (Jones, Ridley, Gallup, Gage (although his target count really seems like a fluke), Lamb). But it seems silly to me that Calvin Ridley is priced $500 more than Amari. He saw 14 targets last week against the Rams, which is more than enough volume to plug in at this price. High total, at home, going against a defense that should continually be torched on a weekly basis, the only downside is that Dak finds the other guys when they score or Zeke rushes for three touchdowns.
Parris Campbell, $4500, IND (vs. MIN)
There are a ton of guys down here, with Gage, Lamb and Diontae Johnson probably garnering a lot of the attention. Let's switch it up a bit with Campbell, who saw nine targets last week in a plus matchup. Minnesota will likely roll coverage TY Hilton's way, leading to plenty of one-on-one matchups against a below-average secondary for him to take advantage of. Even if he doesn't hit nine targets again, Rivers is going to look for him taking the top off the defense. I think he scores in this game.
Potential GPP pivots: Stefon Diggs ($6500, at MIA), Anthony Miller ($5200, vs. NYG), Quintez Cephus ($3800, at GB)
Mark Andrews, $6300, BAL (at HOU)
Yes, he went off last week, scoring two touchdowns. No, that's not the reason why he's here. This game is going to be a high scoring affair, with Houston not really defending anybody, and Andrews will likely be the biggest benefactor in that. His volume isn't going to be quite as high as others in this range, but the upside play seems to be here...
Hunter Henry, $5100, LAC (vs. KC)
...that is, of course, if you don't believe in Hunter Henry. The reason this game won't be as high scoring is the Chargers side, but so what? We know Tyrod Taylor can move this offense, and we've seen his connection with Henry already on display. The game script should have the Chargers throwing early and often. Henry is the guy they're looking for all across the field, but especially in the red zone. I love this spot, and I'm hoping he goes underowned.
Logan Thomas, $3600, WSH (at ARI)
He's going to be chalk, I know. He's the TE hype around the league. He's cheap, he's going against Arizona, he saw eight targets last week and scored. I don't believe his talent is as good as his opportunity, but he has opportunity. If you need a 4k or under tight end, just plug him in.
Potential GPP pivots: Zach Ertz ($5600, vs. LAR), Jonnu Smith ($4200, vs. JAX)
Last week I wrote: "Don’t prioritize this position, pretty much ever. I’ll always figure out what I want to do from my other spots first, and then figure out what I have left for options at that point." We saw the variance of that position on full display, with minimum priced Washington banking people 15 points and the barely-above-minimum Jets pulling home 7 points. Meanwhile, you could have paid an extra $1500 to play the 49ers defense and lost 11 points doing it, or paid an extra $100 from that to take the Eagles for an additional point lost.
In the long run, yes, the higher priced defenses should score more, but we're not playing a season long game here. Fill out the rest of your roster, and then analyze from there - and embrace the variance.
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Good luck, and may your screens be green!