We're back for week 3 of the NFL season! Each week, we’ll be previewing the main slate on DraftKings. Our philosophy with these selections is to provide you with solid floor plays with some upside to start your roster construction, with potential GPP pivots for even further upside in tournaments.
If you'd like to see how we did in our previous weeks, you can find that here:
Please note that the authors of this post are also players of daily fantasy sports, and the selections they make when creating their rosters may or may not include players listed below. You can find Derek Devereaux on DraftKings via the username DerekDevereaux.
This week’s lineup building beer of choice
A nice, malty beer with a beautiful amber color (it's in the name, right?) I usually pick this up as one of my go-to winter beers, and while it's not exactly cold yet (it's 80 degrees as I write this), there's one thing we know as Wisconsinites...
Vegas lines
All lines via Westgate, current as of Friday afternoon.
TEN -3 at MIN, 49.5 total (opened at 42.5)
LV @ NE -5.5, 47.5 total (opened at 45.5)
CHI @ ATL -3, 47.5 total (opened at 44.5)
CIN @ PHI -4.5, 47.5 total (no change)
SF -3.5 @ NYG, 41.5 total (opened at 42.5)
HOU @ PIT -4, 45 total (opened at 47.5)
WAS @ CLE -7, 45 total (opened at 45.5)
LAR @ BUF -2.5, 46.5 total (opened at 42.5)
CAR @ LAC -6.5, 43.5 total (opened at 44.5)
NYJ @ IND -12, 44 total (opened at 47.5)
DET @ ARI -5.5, 55.5 total (opened at 51)
DAL @ SEA -5, 57 total (opened at 51)
TB -5.5 @ DEN, 43 total (opened at 47.5)
Favorite game to target
We have two really high total games this week, but I prefer the Detroit/Arizona game between the two of them. They're both going to be popular, but we have a better understanding of where the production is going to come from in this game than we do in Dallas/Seattle, where there are a lot of different playmakers that could have an impact on the game. Outside of those two games, which both will be popular, I think the Chicago/Atlanta game could be the next game to reach closer to that 50 threshold.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray, $6800, ARI (vs. DET)
He got a big price bump from last week, almost to the point that I'm not sure he's going to crush value anymore. But the matchup here is the exception to that - Detroit has looked atrocious defensively. Arizona's defense hasn't been the greatest, either, so I expect this game to be close enough that we won't see the Cardinals running down the clock at the end. With a high rushing floor and enough weapons to tear apart this defense, this might be the last chance we get to ride with him before he becomes overpriced.
Joe Burrow, $6200, CIN (at PHI)
If I told you to take a guess and say which quarterback has the most passing attempts through two weeks, would you have guessed it? Well, it's Burrow, despite everything we heard about Joe Mixon being the workhorse guy and getting an extension. Philly's defense has been good against the pass and poor against the run, but look at the teams they played - Washington (below average offense) and the Rams (below average offense). As long as his receiver weapons are healthy, he's going to sling the ball around.
Mitchell Trubisky, $5700, CHI (at ATL)
Last week, I wrote the following sentence as the introduction: "DraftKings may just continue to underprice him all year." Well, he's still under 6K, and now he gets the pleasure of going against a Falcons team that has allowed a whopping 78 points in two games - both to excellent offenses, of course, but an astonishingly high number none-the-less. All we're looking for is 20 points. He gets there this week.
Potential GPP pivots: Russell Wilson ($7300, vs. DAL), Justin Herbert ($5900, vs. CAR)
Running Back
Derrick Henry, $7800, TEN (at MIN)
He killed you last week. Why would you go back to him? Well, he had 25 carries in that game, and any time we're getting a bell cow back like this where you can pretty much guarantee the volume will be there, he has to be part of your player pool. There are a lot of guys getting a lot of attention around him, so I think he might even be overlooked. Don't be someone to overlook him.
Miles Sanders, $6400, PHI (vs. CIN)
A lot of people - myself included - weren't sure how Sanders would look coming off of a hamstring injury. Well, we found out. He is the clear cut workhorse in this offense, with 23 touches last week. Cincinnati's defense has been gashed by running backs over the first two weeks. Sanders might be the chalkiest player on the slate at any position, but this is definitely chalk worth considering in GPPs and a must consider for cash games.
A bunch of cheap guys in play
Mike Davis ($5100, @ LAC) is taking over the majority of snaps for Carolina with CMC out. Jerick McKinnon ($4900, @ NYG) should be taking over the majority of snaps for San Francisco, although we've seen Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4000) handle some short-yardage and goal-line work. Joshua Kelley ($5000, vs. CAR) is being force-fed the ball and now goes against a horrendous Carolina defense. And Devin Singletary ($4900, vs. LAR) now has no competition from Zack Moss, who is out with an injury. Any of them are in play in both GPP and Cash. There's just too much volume for each of them to exceed their price points. If you made me rank them on a Friday afternoon, I'd go: Kelley, Singletary, Davis, McKinnon, Wilson.
Potential GPP pivots: Nick Chubb ($6900, vs. WAS), Kenyan Drake ($6000, vs. DET)
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins, $7900, ARI (vs. DET)
25 targets in two games. When Kyler is throwing, he is the clear-cut first option to be the primary benefactor of that. We love finding these funnel opportunities, and Detroit's secondary is not something we should fear.
Allen Robinson II, $6200, CHI (at ATL)
Look, I get it. I keep writing up Trubisky. He's not a good real life quarterback. But you know what he's good at? Looking for Allen Robinson, early and often. He's going to find the pay dirt at some point, and a matchup against Atlanta feels like the get-right spot we're looking for. Don't be afraid by looking at the stat lines.
KJ Hamler, $3000, DEN (vs. TB)
Minimum price WR alert! KJ stepped right in to the fold with Courtland Sutton out for the year, garnering seven targets. Drew Lock is also hurt, so you'll have to trust Jeff Driskel to throw a football. But how much do you really need from a minimum priced player? If he gets to 10 points, that's value - and another seven targets makes that a likelihood.
Potential GPP pivots: Juju Smith-Schuster ($6600, vs. HOU), Terry McLaurin ($5900, at CLE), Diontae Johnson ($5400, vs. HOU)
Tight End
Darren Waller, $5700, LV (at NE)
Waller is light years ahead of every other TE on this slate, to the point that I don't see myself even considering any other high priced TE unless I end up on them as part of a stack. We saw the upside on Monday night - Carr found him early and often, and he absolutely tore apart the Saints on 16 targets. By comparison, Tyler Higbee is more expensive, and he's averaging 4.5 targets per game through the first two games.
Jordan Reed, $4000, SF (at NYG)
George Kittle has been ruled out, and we saw what happened without Kittle last week. Reed was highly efficient, catching seven of eight balls and scoring twice. I don't think he hits pay dirt twice again, but five catches for 45 yards feels like the floor here, and there's upside beyond that.
Potential GPP pivots: Hunter Henry ($4800, vs. CAR), Drew Sample ($3500, at PHI)
Defense
If you've been reading for a couple of weeks now, you know the drill. Make this the last position you put in your lineups. Whatever's left, make a decision based on that. Keep in mind it's not just points allowed you need to think about, but also defensive production - sacks, turnovers, and possibly even touchdowns.
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Good luck, and may your screens be green!