NFL DFS: Week 5 Picks (DraftKings)
Welcome to week 5 of the NFL season! Each week, we’ll be previewing the main slate on DraftKings. Our philosophy with these selections is to provide you with solid floor plays with some upside to start your roster construction, with potential GPP pivots for even further upside in tournaments.
If you'd like to see how we did in our previous weeks, you can find that here:
Week 4 | Week 3 | Week 2 | Week 1
Please note that the authors of this post are also players of daily fantasy sports, and the selections they make when creating their rosters may or may not include players listed below. You can find Derek Devereaux on DraftKings via the username DerekDevereaux.
This week’s lineup building beer of choice
Eagle Park Brewing Company - Tony Had Hair in the 90s New England IPA
A collaboration beer between my former boss and local sports bar legend Tony Lewanovich (Champps Americana - Brookfield) and Eagle Park, this New England IPA is hefty. An 8% ABV, it's a hazy with a nice full tropical citrus flavor. These are only brewed in limited releases, which includes a re-release this weekend. Yes, Tony had hair. No, he doesn't have any now.
All lines via Bovada, current as of Friday afternoon.
JAX at HOU -6, 54.5 total (opened at 50.5)
LV at KC -11.5, 55.5 total (opened at 53.5)
ARI -7.5 at NYJ, 47 total (opened at 46). Note that there was a preliminary positive test for the Jets on Friday morning, with a follow up coming back negative. This should play. (As uSTADIUM pointed out on Twitter, it's good news that they're playing, but bad news that now we have to watch the Jets.)
CAR at ATL -1, 54 total (opened at 53.5)
LAR -7.5 at WAS, 47 total (opened at 45.5)
PHI at PIT -7.5, 44.5 total (opened at 47.5)
CIN at BAL -13, 51 total (opened at 50.5)
MIA at SF -9, 51.5 total (opened at 46.5)
NYG at DAL -8.5, 54 total (opened at 53)
IND -1 at CLE, 47.5 total (opened at 48.5)
Favorite game to target
There are a lot of crazy lines and high totals going on here. I view the NY Giants and Dallas as probably the most popular game, with Carolina and Atlanta following next behind. Don't sleep on the larger spread games in GPPs - I kind of think the Las Vegas/Kansas City game and Cincinnati/Baltimore games will be overlooked. I expect I'll end up overweight on both of those games.
Dak Prescott, $7400, DAL (vs. NYG)
Is he going to need to throw 58 times to beat the Giants? You'd hope not, but his defense is atrocious. Regardless, he's still only the third highest QB on the slate despite being light years ahead in production on the season. They've been letting him sling it and he's in a plus matchup. I expect ownership to be high, but staying even with the field probably makes sense here to eat him as what should be good chalk.
Joe Burrow, $6000, CIN (at BAL)
He's a thirteen point underdog against one of the best teams in football, a team that likes to run the ball on top of it. But he's $6000, and the theoretical game script here is that they'll need him to chuck it. He hasn't attempted fewer than 36 passes in a game all season, including a game that he threw it 61 (!) times. Volume will be here. This isn't a Joe Mixon week.
Kyle Allen, $4100, WAS (vs. LAR)
He's $4100 and he's a starting quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 44% owned in cash last week at $5400. What else do you want me to say?
Potential GPP pivots: Matt Ryan ($6100, vs. CAR), Teddy Bridgewater ($5900, at ATL), Derek Carr ($5300, at KC)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $6800, KC (vs. LV)
I fully expect him to be the highest owned player on the slate as a huge favorite in a plus matchup at home. Volume should be there (16 or more touches in every game this season), and there's definite touchdown upside. Of course, in KC's offense, touchdowns can come from anywhere, but this might be a spot we can't fully ignore.
Mike Davis, $6400, CAR (at ATL)
Paying $6400 for Mike Davis is so #onbrand for 2020, but here we are. They're basically giving him the McCaffrey Lite role, to the point that he has 27 targets in the 2.5 games since McCaffrey went down. You can even play him with Bridgewater if you wanted to and I wouldn't call you crazy. There's no reason to believe his production is going to be stopped by a team that loves blowing leads more than I love beer.
Todd Gurley, $5700, ATL (vs. CAR)
You know who's quietly stumbling into the end zone all the time now? Todd Gurley is. He's got four on the year, and he's had at least 15 touches in every game so far this year. There's not as much passing upside with Gurley, but I like the floor enough to consider it - and the touchdown upside is really what we're chasing.
Potential GPP pivots: James Robinson ($6700, at HOU), whomever starts of Raheem Mostert ($6300) or Jerick McKinnon ($5800, vs. MIA), David Johnson ($5200, vs. JAX)
Amari Cooper, $7400, DAL (vs. NYG)
I was wrong on Amari Cooper. I'll fully admit it. Coming into the year, I said that Amari was a great receiver, but there were too many mouths to feed, so I think he was overvalued in season longs and overpriced on DK. Now he's averaging nearly 13 targets a game, and while there's still mouths to feed, he's getting his. We can't make this mistake anymore. He's nearing Davante Adams and Michael Thomas territory.
Diontae Johnson, $5600, PIT (vs. PHI)
He's out of the concussion protocol, and I think people are going to be off him because he burned them last time out. He got hurt! It happens. We're talking about a guy who had 23 targets in the two full games he played. That's insane volume for the price. Philly's defense isn't something to be afraid of. I'm definitely jamming him in for cash games, and I expect he'll be in a lot of my GPP lineups as one-offs.
Darrius Slayton, $4800, NYG (at DAL)
Someone is going to have to break out for the Giants in this game, right? Why not Slayton, who's results look bad on paper but the target volume has been solid (just over 7 per game) and he's a favorite red zone target for Daniel Jones. With Sterling Shepard still on IR, I like this spot, and I think people might be off him.
Potential GPP pivots: Will Fuller V ($6600, vs. JAX), Robby Anderson ($5900, at ATL), Brandon Aiyuk ($5200, vs. MIA), Tee Higgins ($4900, at BAL)
George Kittle, $6600, SF (vs. MIA)
Did you watch that game against Philadelphia in prime time last week? He was the only guy on the field. He had 142 targets and caught all of them. He even threw them to himself. The only thing he didn't do was punt the football. There is no punting in George Kittle's world. (As a side note, I highly recommend checking out the Truss Levelz podcast hosted by Cam Jordan and Mark Ingram. Kittle was on there this past week. Great interview; you can check it out here.)
Logan Thomas, $3500, WAS (vs. LAR)
I'm a fish. I'm going to write him up again. He's going to get a bunch of targets. He's going to be popular. He's probably going to underwhelm. He even gets a new QB this week! I'm probably going to write him up again next week. #TightEndTrubisky
Potential GPP pivots: Darren Waller ($5900, at KC), Evan Engram ($4600, at DAL), Drew Sample ($3700, at BAL)
Play whatever you want. Don't prioritize it. Your defense should be your last position to fill in your lineup. The $4000 Ravens scored 6 points last week while the $2600 Giants, as underdogs, scored 5.
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Good luck, and may your screens be green!