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NFL DFS: Week 7 Review (DraftKings)

Looking back at Week 7

Last week I wrote about the flaw in my process, where I was dedicating too much of my time on my less profitable ventures (GPP lineups) at the expense of spending time on my more profitable ventures (cash lineup). Lo and behold, we're back to our profiting ways. While I didn't hit on any of my GPP lineups, my cash lineup did hit, and that's all I need for my setup.

My GPP lineups

I went back to the three GPP lineups, and unfortunately, I just didn't hit everything right in a week where there was a lot of chalk that hit. My stacks were:

  • A Packers 2-1 stack (Rodgers + Davante Adams with Will Fuller V as the runback)

  • A Chargers 3-1 stack (Herbert + Keenan Allen + Mike Williams with DJ Chark as the runback)

  • A Falcons 3-1 stack (Ryan + Julio + Ridley with Kenny Golladay as the runback)

My top lineup was the Packers stack (below), which missed the cash line by three points, ugh. (As always, stack is in red text.)

QB: Aaron Rodgers ($7000 - 9.61% owned - 27.32 points)

RB: James Conner ($6700 - 5.03% owned - 14.1 points)

RB: Gio Bernard ($4500 - 24.83% owned - 20.6 points)

WR: Davante Adams ($7900 - 23.98% owned - 47.6 points)

WR: Will Fuller V ($6800 - 7.72% owned - 12.5 points)

WR: Terry McLaurin ($5800 - 25.83% owned - 22 points)

WR - Flex: TreQuan Smith ($4000 - 9.53% owned - 9.4 points)

TE: Hunter Henry ($4500 - 16.92% owned - 5.3 points)

DEF: Washington ($2500 - 33.74% owned - 17 points)

From the preview:

  • Stacking Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams was going to be an "all you can eat buffet for the duo"

  • Terry McLaurin "looks like a misprice"

  • Dalton didn't get sacked 17 times and have four turnovers, but the hyperbole stands

Now if only I would've played Jared Cook (who I wrote up) instead of Hunter Henry (who I didn't write up). Maybe take your own advice, kid.

My Cash lineup

(played in GIANT $5 Double Up as largest cash contest entered)

QB: Deshaun Watson ($6800 - 7.75% owned - 27.16 points)

RB: Alvin Kamara ($7900 - 69.39% owned - 22.8 points)

RB: Gio Bernard (40.97% owned)

RB - Flex: Kareem Hunt ($6800 - 27.32% owned - 19.2 points)

WR: Davante Adams (30.52% owned)

WR: Terry McLaurin (45.75% owned)

WR: TreQuan Smith (19.99%)

TE: Tyler Kroft ($3100 - 3% owned - 10.4 points)

DEF: Washington (45.25% owned)

A whole lot of overlap between that top GPP lineup and this Cash lineup, except I got some of the other pieces right. The one that might shock people at an inclusion here is Tyler Kroft, but with the late news that literally every other tight end on the Bills roster was going to miss the game due to COVID exposure, it had to be him making at least value, right?

Players from last week's picks that didn't end up in my lineups

  • Kyle Allen: Didn't feel like punting a GPP lineup here when I felt I had stronger upside plays and other cheap guys to fill out my roster.

  • Kyler Murray: Thought the Sunday Night game would be chalky, so I took my chances elsewhere. I would've had at least one lineup with him if I was still playing 20 lineups.

  • Matthew Stafford: Ended up on the flipside of the game as I thought the distribution pattern for Ryan was easier to map out. Would've been included in a 20 lineup system.

  • Teddy Bridgewater: Didn't think he had any more upside than the other three. Would've been included in a 20 lineup system.

  • Josh Jacobs: I called this area a "dead zone", and it was for me: I had zero RBs between James Conner ($6700) and David Johnson ($5300).

  • Justin Jackson: Went all in on Gio.

  • Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown: My receiver pool was really, really narrow this week, so without a stack for them to play in, I just didn't find room. I managed to play Odell, though. Good job, Derek.

  • Dalton Schultz: Once that Tyler Kroft news from above came through, I pivoted all of these shares to him. Thought he had as high of a floor, if not higher, plus definitely more upside.

  • Jonnu Smith, Jared Cook: I don't know. I think I just had too much exposure to Derrick Henry and TreQuan Smith that it spooked me.

Hey look! I have beer money now!

I know this isn't a college football blog, but our Badgers balled out in their first game of the season, so it feels appropriate to enjoy a Central Waters Ouisconsing Red Ale in celebration. On Wisconsin!

Be sure to follow along by subscribing below, joining us on Facebook and enjoying some shenanigans with us on Twitter: Derek Devereaux (DraftKings savant), Mikey Henninger (Fantasy Football God, also he owns this joint), and JJ Gosh (Saves you when you have all your players on bye weeks, also wins a lot of leagues).

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