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Smash or pass? Are you drafting Joe Mixon in 2024 fantasy football drafts?

👆 Episode 23 of Inside the 20 discusses whether or not you should smash or pass on Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz in 2024 fantasy football! 👆

Smash or pass? Are you drafting Joe Mixon in 2024 fantasy football drafts?

What you're about to read is straight out of BBFF's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. We do this for every single player, on every single team. Get your Draft Guide while it costs less than a case of beer!

Joe Mixon's betting odds as of 6/11/2024:

💰 Tied for the 14th best odds of leading the NFL in rushing yards (+2800)

Fantasy Football:

After 7 seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Mixon will spend his age 28 season in Houston with the upstart Texans, an ascending offense that finished 13th in scoring and 12th in offensive yards in their first year under DeMeco Ryans, Bobby Slowik and CJ Stroud.

Of course, as good as the Texans were last year, they were NOT good on the ground, finishing 20th in rushing attempts, 22nd in rushing yards and 23rd in rushing TDs.

It showed up at the individual level too, where:

🧊 Devin Singletary averaged just 9.8 PPR points per game and finished as fantasy’s RB 32 despite finishing 21st among RBs in touches and 26th among RBs in scrimmage yards.

Singletary set a career high in touches (246) but a career low in yards-per touch (4.4) and didn’t score many TDs (4).

🧊 Seemingly a terrible fit in Bobby Slowik’s scheme, Dameon Pierce lost his starting job and averaged just 5.5 PPR points per game, finishing as fantasy’s RB 55 despite finishing 38th among running backs in touches (158).

Pierce averaged a sickening 2.9 yards per carry just one year after an encouraging 4.3 yards-per-carry rookie campaign.

Of course, respectfully, neither Singletary nor Pierce is Joe Mixon, a career workhorse who is averaging 19.1 touches per game over his 97 game career.

While Singletary has never registered more than 246 touches, 1100 scrimmage yards, 8 TDs or an RB 19 finish in a single season after 5 years in the NFL, Mixon has registered 270+ touches, 1200+ scrimmage yards, 8+ TDs and an RB 14—or better—finish in 5 of 7 seasons.

Perhaps most importantly, one of the biggest differences between Devin Singletary and Joe Mixon is usage near the goal line, noteworthy considering Singletary scored just 4 TDs last season.

In 2023, Singletary handled 7 carries inside the 5 yard line, punching 1 of them in for a touchdown.

Mixon, on the other hand, handled nearly 3 times as many carries inside the 5 yard line (20), punching 6 of them in for touchdowns (not to mention catching 2 of 3 targets for another touchdown). Mixon finished top 8 among RBs in all categories inside the 5 yard line.

In fact, Mixon’s had 16 or more touches inside the 5 yard line in each of the last 3 seasons, undoubtedly one of the main reasons Houston acquired his services this offseason.

Of course, with 1854 career touches, Joe Mixon is no spring chicken, and it’s fair to wonder how much gas is left in the tank.

Still, fantasy football—especially at the RB position—is a game of projectible volume, and Mixon should get plenty of it, especially near the goal line.

While last year’s Texans finished just 20th in the NFL in rushing attempts, their RB 1 handled 15 or more touches in 12 of 20 games (60%), including 6 games over 20 touches.

In fact, their RB 1 of all 19 games combined averaged 18.1 touches per game.

Over 32 career games where Joe Mixon has handled between 15-19 touches, he’s averaging:

🏈 13.5 PPR points per game

🏈 17.0 touches

🏈 3.6 targets

🏈 2.8 catches

🏈 76.2 scrimmage yards

🏈 0.5 TDs (7 total)

13.5 PPR points per game over a 17 game season would have made Mixon fantasy’s RB 13 in 2023.

He’s a solid, high end RB 2 option that should offer the occasional RB 1 week in 2024.

Mixon is currently being drafted as fantasy's RB 13 around pick 60 overall (5th-6th round turn). That's the portion of the draft where WRs start to fall off a cliff and solid RB options begin to surface.

Mixon is currently ranked 54th overall in BBFF's 2024 Draft Guide (see below), and he's a SMASH in 2024 fantasy football leagues.

Are you drafting Joe Mixon at his current cost? Let me know in the comments below!


📌 Here are 3 ways to get the competitive edge in your fantasy leagues this season: 👇

1️⃣ Online Fantasy Football Community - a Discord Server of NFL fans and sharp fantasy football brains dedicated to helping each other conquer tough decisions and find success.

A perfect place to ask for a 2nd (or 69th) opinion on tough start/sit, trade, add/drop or life dilemma. Everyone in here is a paid subscriber, so you know it’s good people who take the game seriously and won’t steer you wrong!

2️⃣ 2024 Draft Guide - includes rankings for tiebreaker decisions, tiers for planning ahead, 2024 previews for every player (250 of them), stop lights that suggest the perfect time to draft a player, and an ADP tracker to show you which direction a player is trending in drafts.

It’s like you did 30+ hours of weekly research and 300+ real drafts to prepare!


3️⃣ In-Season Cheat Sheets - every week during the season, you’ll get cheat sheets to assist with waivers, start/sit decisions, streamer scenarios, DFS lineups, and more! This includes the weekly “Heat Map,” a lineup-setting resource that offers contextual analysis for every player in every game, every week. This is THE resource that started this entire business!

2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

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