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Smash or pass? Are you drafting Tua Tagovailoa in 2024 fantasy football drafts?

👆 Episode 21 of Inside the 20 discusses what to expect from Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane and the Miami Dolphins in 2024 fantasy football! 👆

Smash or pass? Are you drafting Tua Tagovailoa in 2024 fantasy football drafts?

What you're about to read is straight out of BBFF's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. We do this for every single player, on every single team. Get your Draft Guide while it costs less than a case of beer!

Tua Tagovailoa's Betting odds as of 5/23/2024:

💰 14th best odds of winning MVP (+3300)

💰 Tied for 4th best odds of leading the NFL in passing yards (+800)

💰 Over/Under 4100.5 passing yards (-110 over, –110 under)

💰 Over/Under 25.5 passing TDs (-110 over, -110 under)

Disclaimer: I am NOT a betting expert by any means…but an over/under of 4100.5 passing yards seems awfully low considering Tua Tagovailoa threw for a league-leading 4624 yards last year and has the same supporting cast (Tyreek Hill + Jaylen Waddle) AND Odell Beckham, Jaylen Wright and Jonnu Smith.

Fantasy Football:

In 29 games where Tua Tagovailoa has thrown at least 24 passes since Mike McDaniel became the team’s Head Coach, Tagovailoa is averaging a solid:

🏈 17.6 fantasy points per game

🏈 278.4 passing yards

🏈 1.9 passing TDs (54 total)

🏈 0.8 INTs (22 total)

He’s scored 15 or more fantasy points in 15 of 29 games (51.7%) while flashing the occasional spiked week, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in 8 of 29 games (27.6%) with a high of 38.9 against the Ravens in week 2 of 2022.

Slowed by a buffet of concussions in 2022, Tua only appeared in 13 games and technically finished as fantasy’s QB 15 on the year.

That said, leading the league in yards-per-attempt (8.9) and tying MVP Patrick Mahomes for the league lead in touchdown percentage (the amount of touchdowns thrown per pass attempt), Tua averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game in 2022, an average that would have made him fantasy’s QB 6 had he played all 17 games.

And then in 2023, Tagovailoa proved his health, playing an entire season and finishing as fantasy’s QB 11 while averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game. He finished top 5 in completion percentage (69.3%) and touchdown passes (29) while leading the NFL in passing yards (4624).

With an environment and supporting cast that’s identical to the last 2 years PLUS the additions of Odell Beckham, Jonnu Smith and Jaylen Wright, there’s no reason to expect a step BACK from Tagovailoa in 2024 fantasy football.

And that’s noteworthy because he’s currently being drafted as fantasy’s QB 14 in Underdog best ball drafts (around pick 118 overall—the late 10th round).

Say what you will about him as a real life QB, but in fantasy’s, if Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are on the field, Tua is a back-end QB 1 at absolute worst. There’s upside for more in any given week.

He's currently ranked 120 overall in BBFF's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide (see below).

Are you drafting Tua Tagovailoa at his current cost? Let me know in the comments below!


📌 Here are 3 ways to get the competitive edge in your fantasy leagues this season: 👇

1️⃣ Online Fantasy Football Community - a Discord Server of NFL fans and sharp fantasy football brains dedicated to helping each other conquer tough decisions and find success.

A perfect place to ask for a 2nd (or 69th) opinion on tough start/sit, trade, add/drop or life dilemma. Everyone in here is a paid subscriber, so you know it’s good people who take the game seriously and won’t steer you wrong!

2️⃣ 2024 Draft Guide - includes rankings for tiebreaker decisions, tiers for planning ahead, 2024 previews for every player (250 of them), stop lights that suggest the perfect time to draft a player, and an ADP tracker to show you which direction a player is trending in drafts.

It’s like you did 30+ hours of weekly research and 300+ real drafts to prepare!


3️⃣ In-Season Cheat Sheets - every week during the season, you’ll get cheat sheets to assist with waivers, start/sit decisions, streamer scenarios, DFS lineups, and more! This includes the weekly “Heat Map,” a lineup-setting resource that offers contextual analysis for every player in every game, every week. This is THE resource that started this entire business!

2024 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

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