You know those excruciating start/sit dilemmas that plague you every week during the fantasy football season?
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Every single week during the NFL season, I spend 30+ hours researching and writing contextual analysis for every single player in every single game, so that you know exactly what to expect from that player in any given week.
I place all of that weekly research into one centralized location called the Heat Map so that everything you need to make week-winning decisions is right at your fingertips.
Below is a preview of Super Bowl LVIII, including what to expect from each fantasy football relevant QB, RB, WR and TE. This should give you a nice idea of what you can find in the Heat Map every single week during the season.
And if you'd rather just see the Super Bowl LVIII Heat Map as it's meant to be seen, just click here and then double click on any player you're curious about.
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🏈 Super Bowl LVIII Preview: San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
As of Thursday 2/8, the NFC's #1 seed—the San Francisco 49ers—are projected to score about 25 points on their way to being crowned Super Bowl LVIII champions in a narrow 2.5 point victory over the AFC's #3 seed and defending champions—the Kansas City Chiefs.
On one side of the ball, we'll see a Chiefs offense that finished 15th in scoring and 9th in offensive yards going up against a 49ers defense that finished 3rd in scoring and 8th in yards allowed.
On the other side of the ball, well see a 49ers offense that finished 3rd in scoring and 2nd in offensive yards going up against an even tougher Chiefs defense that finished 2nd in scoring and 22nd in yards allowed.
Strictly from a one-to-one standpoint, at least for fantasy football purposes, Brock Purdy has a "better" matchup than Patrick Mahomes, but Chiefs RBs, WRs and TEs have "better" matchups than 49ers RBs, WRs and TEs.
All in all, this should be a terrific, well-balanced and evenly-matched game, even if it DOES prove to be somewhat of a defensive slugfest.
🟡 PLAYER PREVIEW: Brock Purdy
After 18 games this season, Brock Purdy is averaging a strong:
⚫ 18.5 fantasy points per game
⚫ 28.6 pass attempts
⚫ 19.5 completions
⚫ 266.6 passing yards
⚫ 1.8 passing TDs (33 total)
⚫ 0.7 INTs (12 total)
⚫ 11.4 rushing yards
⚫ 0.1 rushing TDs (2 total)
Purdy scored 15 or more fantasy points in 13 of 18 games this season (72.2%), including 20 or more fantasy points in 9 of them (50%).
He was on absolute fire in 7 games between weeks 8-15, averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game and scoring 20 or more fantasy points in 6 of those 7.
THAT SAID...
He's cooled off considerably in 4 games since, landing between 15-18 fantasy points in each of the last 3 games after an embarrassing 2.4 point clunker in week 16.
Despite averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game on the season as a whole, Purdy is averaging 16.9 points per game over the last 3 contests.
Specifically in 2 playoffs games this year against the Packers and Lions, Purdy has completed 43 of 70 passes for 519 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, adding 62 scoreless rushing yards on 11 carries. He scored 15.48 fantasy points against the Packers in the Divisional Round and then 17.48 fantasy points against the Lions in the Conference Championship.
Purdy's Super Bowl matchup will be his toughest test yet, a suffocating Chiefs defense that is holding enemy QBs to the 4th fewest passing yards (200.5 per game), 4th fewest passing TDs (1.1 per game) and 12th fewest fantasy points (15.69 per game).
What little vulnerability Kansas City's defense DOES have is that they don't intercept the ball much (0.5 per game) and are allowing 24.65 QB rushing yards and 0.3 QB rushing TDs per game.
That said, 9 QBs in the last 16 meaningful games have been able to score 18 or more fantasy points against the Chiefs, including 4 that scored 20 or more.
Of course, if you remove all QB rushing statistics, that number drops to just 4 QBs in 16 meaningful games that were able to score even just 15 fantasy points against the Chiefs, NONE of which have been within the last 8 games.
To be fair to Purdy, he DID have 48 rushing yards in the NFC Championship game against the Lions, not to mention 57 rushing yards way back in week 8 against the Bengals. So it's not IMpossible for him to take advantage of Kansas City's soft spot.
Still, with Kansas City containing Josh Allen (x2), Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson to a total of 4 TD passes within the last 8 games, it's hard to truly get excited about Brock Purdy's chances in fantasy football.
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook is currently projecting Purdy for about 248.5 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interceptions and 13 scoreless rushing yards with +650 odds of scoring a non-passing touchdown, landing somewhere around 17.24 fantasy points.
👇 Other QBs vs the Chiefs this season 👇
Meaningful Games Played: 19
QBs with 15+ fantasy points: 9
QBs with 20+ fantasy points: 4
QBs with 30+ fantasy points: 1
🟢👉🟡 PLAYER PREVIEW: Christian McCaffrey
After 18 games of a legitimately MVP caliber season, Christian McCaffrey is averaging an untouchable:
⚫ 25.4 PPR points per game
⚫ 21.5 touches
⚫ 5.6 targets
⚫ 4.3 catches
⚫ 126.8 scrimmage yards
⚫ 1.4 TDs (25 total)
CMC scored 13 or more PPR points in ALL 18 games this season. Every single one of them.
More impressively, he scored 20 or more PPR points in 14 of 18 games this season (77.8%).
He also has a week-wrecking ceiling, scoring 30 or more PPR points in 4 of 18 games this season (22.2%), including earth-shattering highs of 41.7 points (week 15) and 48.7 points (week 4).
He's been his usual lights-out self in 2 playoff games so far, handling a whopping 48 touches—including 11 catches on 17 targets—for 260 scrimmage yards and 4 TDs. He's averaging 30.5 PPR points per game in the playoffs after scoring 31.8 against the Packers in the Divisional Round, and 29.2 PPR points against the Lions in the Conference Championship.
His Super Bowl matchup is undoubtedly tough, a suffocating Chiefs defense that's holding opposing RBs to the:
⚫ 3rd fewest touches
⚫ 12th fewest rushing yards
⚫ 15th fewest catches
⚫ 14th fewest receiving yards
⚫ 11th fewest scrimmage yards
⚫ 3rd fewest TDs
⚫ 6th PPR points per game
Just 11 RBs in 19 meaningful games have been able to score even just 10 PPR points against the Chiefs this year, just 5 of which scored 15 or more.
Just 1 RB in the last 7 games has been able to score 15 or more PPR points against the Chiefs.
In 3 playoff games so far, De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, James Cook, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have COMBINED for just 51 touches—including 13 catches on 21 targets—for 215 scoreless yards, averaging 6.9 nice (not really) PPR points per game among the 5 of them. Cook was the only one to exceed 8 PPR points against the Chiefs, holding the current "high" of 12.2 PPR points.
All that being said, none of those guys or anyone else on the planet is Christian McCaffrey, who dumped 29.2 PPR points on an even more difficult Lions defense (2nd fewest PPR points per game) just 2 weeks ago.
Averaging 25+ PPR points, 21+ touches, 5+ targets per game and more than 1 touchdown per game, Christian McCaffrey is about as matchup proof as it gets at the running back position. Matchups just don't matter for this guy.
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook currently has CMC projected for about 91.5 rushing yards, 5 catches, 35.5 receiving yards and 1 TD (-334 odds with +150 odds of scoring a 2nd TD), landing somewhere around 23.7 PPR points even despite the difficult matchup.
If you're in a deep playoff league and just need bodies, Elijah Mitchell is the 2nd RB in line for touches behind Christian McCaffrey.
👇 Other notable RBs vs the Chiefs this season 👇
Meaningful Games Played: 19
RBs with 10+ PPR points: 11
RBs with 15+ PPR points: 5
RBs with 20+ PPR points: 2
🟢👉🟡 PLAYER PREVIEW: Deebo Samuel
Shaking off injury concerns, Deebo Samuel looked like his usual self his last time on a football field (the NFC Championship game), catching 8 of 9 targets and handling 3 carries for 96 scoreless scrimmage yards and 17.6 PPR points. Expect another full workload for Deebo in Super Bowl LVIII
After 14 games this season where he played at least 21 offensive snaps, Deebo Samuel is averaging a dominant:
⚫ 18.2 PPR points per game
⚫ 7.4 touches
⚫ 6.8 targets
⚫ 4.7 catches
⚫ 83.6 scrimmage yards
⚫ 0.9 TDs (12 total)
He's scored 15 or more PPR points in 9 of those 14 games (64%), including 6 games over 21 PPR points (43%).
In fact, over the last 9 full games, Deebo is averaging an elite 20.5 PPR points per game, scoring 15+ PPR points in 7 of those 9.
His Super Bowl matchup is undoubtedly intimidating against L'Jarius Sneed and a suffocating Kansas City Chiefs defense that is holding opposing WRs to the 6th fewest catches, 4th fewest yards, 6th fewest TDs and 4th fewest PPR points per game.
Just 3 WRs in the last 8 games have been able to score even so much as 12 PPR points against the Chiefs.
That said, all 3 have been during these playoffs: Tyreek Hill, Khalil Shakir and Zay Flowers all scored 17+ PPR points against the Chiefs in the last 3 games.
Of course, in return, Jaylen Waddle and Stefon Diggs were each notably contained to fewer than 7 PPR points.
In fact, there are A LOT of notable names that the Chiefs have slowed down this year (full list inside the Heat Map).
Still, averaging 20+ PPR points per game over his last 9 full games, Deebo Samuel is matchup proof as a fantasy football option.
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook currently has Deebo projected for about 16.6 rushing yards, 5 catches and 60.5 receiving yards with +129 odds of scoring a touchdown, landing somewhere around 14.51 PPR points.
👇 Other notable WRs vs the Chiefs this season 👇
Meaningful Games played: 20
WRs with 15+ PPR points: 12
WRs with 20+ PPR points: 4
🟢👉🟡 PLAYER PREVIEW: Brandon Aiyuk
After 13 full games alongside Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk is averaging a strong:
⚫ 17.2 PPR points per game
⚫ 6.5 targets
⚫ 4.7 catches
⚫ 87.9 scrimmage yards
⚫ 0.6 TDs (8 total) - with 1,442 scrimmage yards but just 8 TDs, Brandon Aiyuk is the only remaining player on the Positive TD Regression Cheat Sheet, as his usage indicates he should have closer to 9.3 TDs by this point
Aiyuk has scored 13 or more PPR points in 10 of those 13 games, including 8 of the last 9.
He also offers a strong ceiling, scoring 20 or more PPR points in 4 of those 13 games, including 24.4 PPR points as recently as week 17.
His Super Bowl matchup is undoubtedly intimidating against L'Jarius Sneed and a suffocating Kansas City Chiefs defense that is holding opposing WRs to the 6th fewest catches, 4th fewest yards, 6th fewest TDs and 4th fewest PPR points per game.
Just 3 WRs in the last 8 games have been able to score even so much as 12 PPR points against the Chiefs.
That said, all 3 have been during these playoffs: Tyreek Hill, Khalil Shakir and Zay Flowers all scored 17+ PPR points against the Chiefs in the last 3 games.
Of course, in return, Jaylen Waddle and Stefon Diggs were each notably contained to fewer than 7 PPR points.
In fact, there are A LOT of notable names that the Chiefs have slowed down this year (full list inside the Heat Map).
Averaging fewer than 7 targets per game is always concerning for Auyuk's floor. But averaging 17+ PPR points per game keeps him locked in as a high upside option every week.
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook currently has Aiyuk projected for about 4 catches and 59.5 scoreless yards with +140 odds of scoring a touchdown, landing somewhere around 10.55 PPR points.
👇 Other notable WRs vs the Chiefs this season 👇
Meaningful Games played: 20
WRs with 15+ PPR points: 12
WRs with 20+ PPR points: 4
If you're in a deep playoff league and just need bodies, Jauan Jennings is playing the 3rd most offensive snaps among 49ers WRs.
🟡 PLAYER PREVIEW: George Kittle
After 14 full games with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle is averaging:
⚫ 12.1 PPR points per game
⚫ 5.2 targets
⚫ 3.7 catches
⚫ 58.5 scrimmage yards
⚫ 0.4 TDs (6 total)
He's been relatively boom or bust as a fantasy football option when Deebo is in the lineup, scoring fewer than 8 PPR points in 7 of 14 games, but also scoring 16 or more PPR points in 6 of 14 games.
Like every other 49ers skill player, Kittle's Super Bowl matchup is intimidating vs a suffocating Chiefs defense that is holding opposing tight ends to the 14th fewest catches, 3rd fewest yards, 4th fewest TDs and 4th fewest PPR points per game.
Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet, Dalton Kincaid (x2) and Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely ALL came up short of 10 PPR points against the Chiefs this year.
That said, Evan Engram, TJ Hockenson, Gerald Everett and Hunter Henry all scored 10 or more vs KC, though just 2 of them have been since week 7.
Kittle is a boom or bust tight end play with a better chance of busting than booming in Super Bowl XVIII
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook currently has Kittle projected for about 4 catches and 49.7 scoreless yards with +150 odds of scoring a touchdown, landing somewhere around 8.97 PPR points.
👇 Other notable TEs vs the Chiefs this season 👇
Meaningful Games Played: 19
TEs with 10+ PPR points: 4
TEs with 15+ PPR points: 1
🟡 PLAYER PREVIEW: Patrick Mahomes
Over his last 11 games, Patrick Mahomes is averaging an uncharacteristic:
⚫ 16.4 fantasy points per game
⚫ 36.0 pass attempts
⚫ 23.8 completions
⚫ 240.4 passing yards
⚫ 1.5 passing TDs (16 total)
⚫ 0.5 INTs (6 total)
⚫ 20.9 rushing yards
⚫ no rushing TDs - with 464 rushing yards but no rushing TDs this season, Patrick Mahomes is bound to find the end zone on the ground at any time now
He's landed between 15-19 fantasy points in 7 of those 11 games, mixing in a high of 20.82 points and 3 games between 13-14 fantasy points.
He's landed between 14-19 fantasy points in EACH of the last 6 games and is averaging 15.7 PPR points per game over the last 8.
Specifically in the playoffs—which featured 1 mediocre matchup with the Dolphins and 2 tough matchups with the Bills and Ravens—Mahomes is averaging 239.3 passing yards and 25 rushing yards per game with 4 passing TDs and no interceptions (17.4 fantasy points per game).
After 2 straight bottom 7 matchups, Mahomes will draw a 3rd consecutive tough defense, a suffocating 49ers unit that is holding opposing QBs to the 13th fewest passing yards (232.42 per game), 10th fewest passing TDs (1.21 per game) and 4th fewest fantasy points (14.01 per game).
They're 2nd in the league in interceptions (1.26 per game) and have contained enemy QBs to 17.63 rushing yards and 0.11 rushing TDs per game.
Just 6 QBs in 15 meaningful games have been able to score 15 or more fantasy points against the 49ers this season, just 1 of which has been within the last 5 games.
Specifically in these playoffs, Jordan Love scored 12.06 fantasy points against the Niners in the Divisional Round, and Jared Goff scored 14.92 fantasy points against them in the Conference Championship.
Still, even in a down season, Mahomes is consistently scoring 15+ fantasy points in each game, even in the face of difficult matchups.
For what it's worth BetOnline Sportsbook currently has Mahomes projected for about 262.5 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, no INTs and 27.7 scoreless rushing yards with +350 odds of scoring a non-passing touchdown, landing somewhere around 21.27 fantasy points.
👇 Other QBs vs the 49ers this season 👇
Meaningful Games Played: 18
QBs with 15+ fantasy points: 6
QBs with 20+ fantasy points: 5
QBs with 30+ fantasy points: 0
🟡 PLAYER PREVIEW: Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco is ballin' over his last 6 games, averaging:
⚫ 20.2 PPR points per game
⚫ 21.4 touches
⚫ 3.7 targets
⚫ 3.6 catches
⚫ 97.7 scrimmage yards
⚫ 1.1 TDs (8 total)
Pacheco scored 15 or more PPR points in 6 of the last 7 games (85.7%), including 21+ PPR points in 3 of the last 7 games (42.9%).
He's scored 15 or more PPR points in 10 of 17 games this season (58.8%).
His Super Bowl matchup is a tough one vs a 49ers defense that is holding opposing RBs to the:
⚫ 2nd fewest touches
⚫ 3rd fewest rushing yards
⚫ 3rd fewest scrimmage yards
⚫ 7th fewest touchdowns
⚫ 10th fewest PPR points per game
If you're desperate for optimism, the 49ers ARE allowing the 7th most RB catches and the 9th most RB receiving yards per game so...that's cool.
In other words, numerically, it's a matchup that is VERY similar to what Pacheco faced in the Ravens when he still scored 18.2 PPR points. Granted, he needed 28 touches and gained just 82 yards (2.93 yards per touch) but, thankfully scored a touchdown for the 7th straight game.
14 RBs in 19 meaningful games have been able to score 10 or more PPR points against the 49ers, just 6 of which scored 15 or more.
That said, running backs have done well in 2 playoff games against the 49ers, as Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 53 touches—including 8 catches on 14 targets—for 285 yards and 2 TDs, averaging 16.17 PPR points per running back over the last 2 games.
Isiah Pacheco isn't an "exciting" option in fantasy football for Super Bowl XVIII, but he's not a terrifying play either.
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook is currently projecting Pacheco for about 68.7 rushing yards, 3 catches, 17.4 receiving yards and 1 touchdown from scrimmage (-143 odds), landing somewhere around 17.61 PPR points.
If you're in a deep playoff league and just need bodies, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the 2nd RB in line for touches behind Isiah Pacheco.
👇 Other notable RBs vs the 49ers this season 👇
Meaningful Games Played: 19
RBs with 10+ PPR points: 14
RBs with 15+ PPR points: 6
RBs with 20+ PPR points: 2
🟢 PLAYER PREVIEW: Rashee Rice
Rashee Rice has been on a tear over his last 9 games, averaging:
⚫ 17.9 PPR points per game
⚫ 9.0 targets
⚫ 7.0 catches
⚫ 82.3 scrimmage yards
⚫ 0.4 TDs (4 total)
He's scored 17 or more PPR points in 5 of the last 9 games (55.6 %), including 20 or more PPR points in 4 of the last 9 games (44.4%).
From a fantasy football standpoint, Rashee Rice has the "best" matchup of any QB, RB, WR or TE in this game for either team. He'll face a middling 49ers defense that is allowing the 7th most catches, 9th most TDs and 14th most PPR points per game despite holding WRs to the 12th fewest yards.
14 WRs in 19 meaningful games have been able to score 15 or more PPR points against the Niners, including 7 that scored 20 or more.
In fact, 4 WRs in the last 4 meaningful games have scored 15 or more vs the Niners, including 2 that scored 20+.
Averaging 9 targets and nearly 18 PPR points per game and entering this contest as the ONLY player in this game with an above average matchup, Rashee Rice is a solid fantasy football play in Super Bowl LVIII.
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook is currently projecting Rice for about 6.4 catches and 67.6 yards with +110 odds of scoring a touchdown, landing somewhere around 15.56 PPR points.
If you're in a deep playoff league and just need bodies, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is playing the 2nd most offensive snaps among Chiefs WRs. That said, he's scored fewer than 9 PPR points in 18 of 19 games this season.
Likewise, Justin Watson is playing the 2nd most offensive snaps among Chiefs WRs. That said, he's scored fewer than 10 PPR points in 17 of 19 games this season.
Skyy Moore is set to return to action after a 6 game absence and could get meaningful run in a Patrick Mahomes offense after being a top 3 option for most of the season. That said, Moore scored fewer than 9 PPR points in 13 of 14 games before he got hurt.
👇 Other notable WRs vs the 49ers this season 👇
Meaningful Games played: 19
WRs with 15+ PPR points: 14
WRs with 20+ PPR points: 7
WRs with 30+ PPR points: 2
WRs with 40+ PPR points: 0
🟢 PLAYER PREVIEW: Travis Kelce
After 18 games, Travis Kelce is averaging a still-elite:
⚫ 16.0 PPR points per game
⚫ 8.2 targets
⚫ 6.4 catches
⚫ 69.2 scrimmage yards
⚫ 0.4 TDs (8 total)
Kelce has scored 11 or more PPR points in 14 of 18 games this season (78%), including 8 games over 15 PPR points (44.4%).
His elite ceiling still very well intact, Kelce has scored 21 or more PPR points in 5 of 18 games this season (27.8%), including a high of 35.9 in week 7.
In fact, he's rolling in 3 playoff games this season, scoring 14.1 PPR points against the Dolphins in the Wildcard round, then 24.5 PPR points against the Bills in the Divisional round, and then 28.6 PPR points—his 2nd best game of the year—against the Baltimore Ravens in the Conference Championship.
His Super Bowl matchup is on the slightly unfriendly side against a 49ers defense that is holding opposing TEs to the 16th fewest yards, 6th fewest TDs and 14th fewest PPR points per game despite allowing the 7th most catches.
Darren Waller, Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, Evan Engram and Isaiah Likely ALL came up short of 10 PPR points against these Niners.
That said, 4 TEs in the last 6 meaningful games have scored 10 or more PPR points against the Niners, including 20.2 points from Trey McBride in week 15 and 18.7 PPR points from Sam La Porta in the Conference Championship.
Averaging 16 PPR points and 8+ targets per game, the GOAT is as matchup proof as it gets at the tight end position.
For what it's worth, BetOnline Sportsbook currently has Travis Kelce projected for about 7 catches, 74 yards and 1 TD (-126 odds), landing somewhere around 20.40 PPR points.
👇 Other notable TEs vs the 49ers this season 👇
Meaningful Games Played: 19
TEs with 10+ PPR points: 6
TEs with 15+ PPR points: 3
TEs with 20+ PPR points: 1
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