TJ Hockenson or Zach Ertz: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 3, 2025 season)

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When you're facing a tough start/sit decision on your fantasy football team, you may end up having to choose between TJ Hockenson or Zach Ertz. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

Game Scripts

The Carson Wentz/Jake Browning Bowl is shaping up to be a low scoring game for fantasy football purposes. The over/under (41.5) is tied for the lowest among all 16 games on the week 2 slate, and both teams are sporting bottom 15 implied totals under 23 points, suggesting scoring opportunities and fantasy football fireworks will be limited. What did we do to deserve this in week 3?

The Commanders are entering week 3 with a solid implied point total of 24 points — tied for the 9th most among all 32 teams playing football this week — suggesting an above-average amount of scoring opportunities and fantasy football fireworks. This is an offense you want exposure to in your week 3 lineups.

TJ Hockenson: Bottom Line

Low-end TE 1. Floor of 5–7 PPR points (low-total game and muted team volume; ~5–7 targets, no TD). Ceiling of 14–17 PPR points (75–80% routes with 7–9 targets vs a Bengals defense allowing top-10 TE catches/yards; a red-zone score lifts him to mid-teens).

Zach Ertz: Bottom Line

TE 1. Floor of 7–9 PPR points (24 implied points + steady role → ~5–7 targets, 3–5 catches, no touchdown). Ceiling of 14–18 PPR points (Raiders were TE-friendly last year; if game tilts pass-heavy → ~6–9 very nice targets, 5–7 catches, 50–70 yards and a touchdown).

Should I start TJ Hockenson or Zach Ertz?

This is a clear situation where we need to throw aside our priors from the beginning of the season. TJ Hockenson hasn't been as involved in the offense as he normally is, and to top it off, he now gets Carson Wentz as his QB. There's questions about whether Jayden Daniels will play QB for the Commanders this week, but their implied total tells me that the odds of him playing are high. I'm starting Zach Ertz in this scenario.

Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025

Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

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