Week 16 Waiver Wire (and Wake Early Wednesday)
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Week 16 Waiver Wire (and Wake Early Wednesday)
Below are the players I'm considering adding to my rosters before week 16 kicks off. All of these players are near or below 50% rostered in Yahoo leagues and therefore likely to be available in most leagues.
I'm typically pretty frugal with my waiver claim priority and blind bidding dollars. That said, with just 2 weeks remaining in the fantasy football season, this is obviously a time to be more aggressive, especially if it's a player that you'll have in your starting lineup.
Obviously, keep your own scoring, settings, sizes and preferences in mind when considering next steps. This list is meant to give you ideas for additions; how and what you do with them is up to you.
Disclaimer: I'm writing this during the afternoon on Monday, meaning this has been written and possibly published before or during the Monday Night Football game. Keep players from that game in mind when considering your waiver wire activity.
As usual, there are no QBs that I'd recommend using priority or FAAB on this week. Here are a few streamers to consider after waivers clear if you're in a pinch:
Brock Purdy - 21% rostered - After 3 games, Brock Purdy is averaging 17.49 fantasy points and 204 passing yards per game with 6 TDs, 1 INT and 1 rushing TD. He's scored 14 or more fantasy points in all three games, including a high of 21.7. The 49ers are opening week 16 with a nice implied total of 23.25 points as 7 point home favorites over the Commanders, a defense that's offering the 11th most fantasy points per game—including the 9th most TD passes—to QBs. And then, as an encore in week 17, Purdy gets a Raiders defense that's offering the 4th most fantasy points, 4th most passing yards and 5th most passing TDs per game to enemy QBs.
Daniel Jones - 59% rostered - 14 games into the season, Daniel Jones is averaging a better-than-expected 16.9 fantasy points per game on 192.4 passing yards and 41.6 rushing yards per game with 12 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs and 4 interceptions. In week 16 he'll get a possible shootout—the 47.5 point over/under is the 2nd highest on the 16 game slate—with a Vikings defense that's allowing the 5th most fantasy points, 2nd most passing yards and 12th most passing TDs to QBs. They're also allowing 21.6 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing TDs per game, both of which are among the most in football. Jones' Giants enter the week with an implied total of 22 points, the 12th most on the 32 team slate.
Sam Darnold - 6% rostered - If you're absolutely desperate, Sam Darnold is at least an option this week, even if it feels gross. Likely to face negative game script that forces the Panthers to throw more than the 22 pass attempts per game that Darnold is currently averaging, Darnold catches a league-worst Lions defense that is hemorrhaging the most fantasy points, 3rd most passing yards and 8th most passing TDs to opposing QBs. This game has a 43.5 point over/under, the 6th highest on the week 16 slate. Darnold's Panthers have an implied total of 20.5 points, the 15th most. I admittedly don't love the option, but it's an option nonetheless.
There are 2 running backs that are largely available that I would consider using claim priority and bidding dollars on this week:
Zack Moss (3% rostered) and Deon Jackson (7% rostered) - Jonathan Taylor left week 15 with what sounds like a high ankle sprain and appears to be done for the year. In his place, Zack Moss had 24 carries but just 81 scoreless yards (8.1 PPR points) in the blowout-turned-epic-collapse. He played 67% of the snaps with a huge lead while Deon Jackson served as the preferred 3rd down back on 32% of the snaps. For his part, Jackson turned 14 touches—including 1 target/catch—into 56 yards and 1 TD (12.6 PPR points). In 2 games that Taylor was out earlier this season (weeks 5 and 6), Jackson impressed with 41.2 PPR points on 39 touches—including a whopping 14 targets/catches—for 212 yards and 1 TD. Of course, that's when Moss wasn't in the picture. They'll likely form a frustrating committee to close the season with Moss on early down short-yardage duty (Moss had 8 red zone opportunity to Jackson's 4) while Jackson serves as the pass-catching specialist with some rush volume of his own. In week 16, the Colts figure to play from behind against a Chargers defense that's allowing the 6th most PPR points per game to RBs, while another likely neutral/negative game script awaits them in week 17 against a Giants defense allowing the 15th most PPR points per game to RBs.
Tyler Allgeier (37% rostered) - Tyler Allgeier went HAM—do kids still say that?—in week 15, scoring 20.6 PPR points on 18 touches—including 1 target/catch—for 136 yards and 1 TD. His week 15 matchup is not encouraging against a Ravens defense that's holding RBs to the 7th fewest PPR points per game, but Atlanta is relentlessly committed to running the ball so he should get his chances, especially if Lamar Jackson is out again and Atlanta can keep it close. Looking ahead to week 17, it's a bright spot for Allgeier as a potentially-favored RB facing a Cardinals defense that is allowing the 10th most PPR points per game to RBs.
Beyond that, here are a few players to consider adding "for free" after waivers run.
Marlon Mack (5% rostered) - Marlon Mack has been getting more involved lately, scoring 15+ PPR points in each of the last 2 games on 14 touches—including 6 catches on 7 targets—for 140 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs (32 PPR points). The clock has probably run out on him being a 2022 fantasy option with only 2 weeks left in the season, but he could be a deep desperation flex play for deep leaguers. Denver has a neutral/positive matchup with the Rams in week 16 and a good matchup (but terrible environment) in Kansas City in week 17.
Jaylen Warren (13% rostered) - Jaylen Warren scored a season-high 11.9 PPR points in week 15 on 12 touches (tied his season high) for 49 yards and 1 TD. It was the 4th time in his last 8 full games where he landed between 10-12 PPR points. He has a great matchup with the Raiders in week 16 before a tough spot against Baltimore in week 17. He's a scary, desperation flex option, but he's still an option.
Royce Freeman, Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead (all less than 17% rostered) - a nasty committee on a nasty offense is hardly something to target with relentless passion, but if you're in a deeper league and need something, these guys should at least be on the radar. Ogunbowale led the backfield in snaps (43% to Freeman's 38% and Burkhead's 19%), Freeman led the backfield in touches (12 to Ogunbowale's 8 and Burkhead's 2) and Burkhead lead the team in targets (4 to Ogunbowale's 0 and Freeman's 1). I told you, it's pretty nasty and in week 16 they'll likely get a negative game script against a tough Titans' defense (5th fewest PPR points per game allowed to RBs). But in week 17 they'll catch a Jaguars defense that's allowing the 11th most PPR points per game to RBs. They're deep, deeeeeep desperation options. But they're options nonetheless.
There are not any wide receivers I'd use priority or FAAB on this week (except Zay Jones if available). That said, here are several WRs I'm considering adding after waivers clear:
Zay Jones - 55% rostered - Over his last 5 games, Zay Jones is averaging 20.10 PPR points per game on 10.2 targets, 7 catches and 83 yards per game with 4 TDs. His remaining schedule is nasty against the Jets (4th fewest PPR points per game allowed to WRs) and Texans (3rd fewest), but there's no way a guy that's smashing and averaging 10-11 targets per game should only be 55% rostered.
Marquise Goodwin - 3% rostered - Tyler Lockett is likely to miss some time, theoretically freeing up 7.7 targets per game that need to find a new home. Next man up figures to be Marquise Goodwin who himself has multiple 20+ point performances this season. In week 16, the Seahawks will likely be forced to throw it plenty against a Chiefs defense that is allowing the 4th most PPR points, 7th most catches, 9th most yards and most TDs to WRs. Goodwin is an instant WR 3 if Lockett is out.
Russell Gage - 13% rostered - Russell Gage snapped in week 15, posting a week-winning 25.9 PPR points on 12 targets, 8 catches, 59 yards and 2 TDs. He played 62% of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps—easily his most since week 7—with Julio Jones inactive and, if that remains the case, Gage will have friendly matchups with the Cardinals and Panthers to close out the season, both of which are bottom 16 teams when it comes to defending WRs.
Chris Moore - 19% rostered - Chris Moore now has 44 targets in his last 7 games (6.3 per game), including 20 over the last 2 games (both of which are his 2 highest). If Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins don't return in week 16, Moore will again be a target hog in a mouthwatering matchup against the Titans (most PPR points allowed) with another drool-inducing matchup with the Jaguars (9th most) on deck.
Noah Brown - 2% rostered - Noah Brown went off in week 15, scoring 22.9 PPR points on 9 targets, 6 catches, 49 yards and 2 TDs. It was the 6th time in 12 games that Brown hit 10 PPR points, and the 2nd time this season he went over 20. Over the last 2 games he has 35.4 PPR points on 15 targets, 10 catches, 134 yards and 2 TDs. He has a tough matchup with the Eagles in week 16 but a mouthwatering matchup with the Titans in week 17.
Jahan Dotson - 17% rostered - Over his last 2 games, Jahan Dotson has compiled 36.9 PPR points on 15 targets, 9 catches, 159 yards and 2 TDs. In week 16, the exciting 1st round rookie will have a negative game script against a 49ers defense that entered week 15 allowing the 11th most PPR points to WRs.
Romeo Doubs - Romeo Doubs played just 32% of the snaps in his week 15 return, but that didn't stop him from leading Packers' WRs in PPR points (10.5) on 5 targets which tied for 2nd behind only fellow rookie Christian Watson. His 55 receiving yards led the team. In week 16, Doubs figures to be more involved with the Packers going into Christmas as 5.5 point underdogs to the Dolphins in Miami. Miami has allowed the 8th most catches and 11th most receiving yards to WRs so far this season. And then in week 17, Doubs catches a Vikings defense that's offering the 2nd most PPR points, most catches, 2nd most yards and 12th most TDs to WRs.
KJ Osborn - 5% rostered - KJ Osborn erupted in week 15, posting 31.7 PPR points on 16 targets, 10 catches, 157 yards and 1 TD. That's worth a flier but beware of chasing what very well may go down as the best game of Osborn's career. In 13 games, prior, Osborn averaged just 6.4 PPR points per game on 4.4 targets per game on similar playing time, finishing under 10 points in 11 of 14 games this season. It also happened on a day where Kirk Cousins had to throw the ball 54 times—a season high and something he *shouldn't* have to do in weeks 16 or 17 against the Giants and Packers—both of which, by the way, are top 11 defenses when it comes to defending WRs.
Cole Beasley - 1% rostered - Cole Beasley played 11 snaps in his first game back with the Buffalo Bills after finishes of WR 38, WR 27, and WR 34 in the past 3 seasons with the Bills. In all likelihood, he won't make an impact in time for fantasy football. But, what if he takes over the slot role sooner than expected? There's value there.
As usual, there are no tight ends I would use waiver priority on. Here's who I'd consider in a week 16 pinch however:
Juwan Johnson - 20% rostered - Over his last 6 games Juwan Johnson is averaging 14.6 PPR points per game on 4.67 targets, 3.5 catches and 41 yards per game with a whopping 7(!) TDs in the last 6 games. He's scored 12 or more PPR points in 5 of the last 6 contests with 2 appearances in the 20+ point range. There's nothing especially exciting about his remaining schedule against the Browns and Eagles—both of which are top 9 defenses when it comes to defending tight ends—but it's hard to ignore the production at this point.
Noah Fant - 22% rostered - Tyler Lockett is likely to miss some time, theoretically freeing up 7.7 targets per game that need to find a new home. Noah Fant is trying to break onto the streaming screen with 14 or more PPR points in 3 of the last 6 games, including 2 of the last 3 (grossly enough with a '0' in the middle). In week 16, the Seahawks will likely be forced to throw it plenty against a Chiefs defense that is allowing the 9th most TDs to TEs this season. And then in week 17, Fant gets a Jets defense that's allowing the 6th most catches and 12th most yards to TEs this season.
Jordan Akins - 1% rostered - Jordan Akins hit 10 PPR points again in week 15, scoring 11.2 PPR points on 6 targets, 3 catches, 22 yards and 1 TD. It was his 3rd 10+ point game in his last 6 tries, and he's now averaging 4.75 targets per game over his last 4 contests. It's gross, but he'll be on the streaming radar in weeks 16 and 17 against the Titans and Jaguars, both of which are bottom 5 defenses when it comes to defending TEs.
Trey McBride - 4% rostered - Trey McBride has 11 targets over his last 2 games (7 catches and 83 scoreless yards—15.3 PPR points) and is working his way onto the streaming radar. In weeks 16 and 17 he'll dance with the Buccaneers and Falcons defenses, both of which are bottom 10 when it comes to defending TEs.
I'll never use waiver priority on a defense, but there are several defenses I'd be looking to stream in week 16 if I can find them. Assuming I can't get the Ravens (90% rostered), Bills (99% rostered), 49ers (98% rostered), Eagles (95% rostered) or Chiefs (90% rostered), I'd be going for the:
Cleveland Browns - 26% rostered - their opponent, the New Orleans Saints, opened the week with an implied total of just 14.25 points, easily the fewest on the 32 team slate.
Tennessee Titans - 49% rostered - their opponent, the Houston Texans, opened the week with an implied total of just 15.75 points, the 3rd fewest on the 32 team slate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 69% rostered (nice) - their opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, opened the week with an implied total of just 17.25 points, the 7th fewest on the 32 team slate. Worst case, the Cardinals will be starting Colt McCoy. Best case, they'll be starting Trace McSorley.
Los Angeles Rams - 32% rostered - their opponent, the Denver Broncos, opened the week with an implied total of just 17 points, the 6th fewest on the 32 team slate.
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