Week 2 Fantasy Football Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas Chiefs
The week 2 Lineup Setting Heat Map (👆) begins with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.
As of Wednesday 9/14, the Chiefs are expected to score 29.25(ish) points—the 2nd most on the week 2 slate—in a 4 point home victory over the division rival Chargers.
For their part, despite the presumed loss, the Chargers are still expected to put up a fantasy football useful 25.25(ish) points, the 8th most on the slate.
The game features a 54.5 point over/under, which is easily the biggest on the entire week 2 slate. This is the game to target in week 2 fantasy football, and you want as much of this action as you can get. 💰
Player Notes and Analysis
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Column B: Feel Good
QB Justin Herbert
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chargers are expected to score a fantasy-friendly 25.25(ish) points—the 8th most on the week 2 slate—in a 4 point road loss to the division rival Chiefs on Thursday night. The game has a 54.5 point over/under, which is EASILY the highest on the slate. Thursday Night's contest is THE game to target in fantasy football on the week 2 slate. You theoretically want as much of this action as you can get.
Justin Herbert got off to a solid start in week 1, posting 279 passing yards and 3 TDs for a 23.26 point finish, good enough for QB 5 on the week.
He won't have Keenan Allen, but I'd still expect more of the same in Thursday's shootout with a Chiefs team that also got off to a hot start in week 1.
That said, it's worth noting that the Chiefs DID hold Kyler Murray to 18.62 fantasy points on just 193 passing yards and 2 TDs (plus 5 carries for 29 yards), but I'd expect the Chargers to put up more of a fight, and they're going to need Justin Herbert's arm to do it.
He's a confident QB 1 with upside in this shootout.
RB Austin Ekeler
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chargers are expected to score a fantasy-friendly 25.25(ish) points—the 8th most on the week 2 slate—in a 4 point road loss to the division rival Chiefs on Thursday night. The game has a 54.5 point over/under, which is EASILY the highest on the slate. Thursday Night's contest is THE game to target in fantasy football on the week 2 slate. You theoretically want as much of this action as you can get.
Austin Ekeler's week 1 output left a lot to be desired for managers that spent a mid-first round pick on him, registering just 11.2 PPR points to finish as fantasy's RB 26 in week 1.
Still, his usage was encouraging (well...kind of), getting 18 touches—including 4 catches on 4 targets—on the afternoon that he turned into 72 scoreless scrimmage yards.
He figures to get more volume as a receiver in Thursday's shootout with the Chiefs, a defense that just allowed 8 catches on 10 targets to Cardinals' running backs James Conner (5) and Eno Benjamin (3).
The absence of Keenan Allen only enhances Ekeler's outlook as a receiver in week 2. He seems like a lock for another 15+ touches with elevated receiving volume as 4 point underdogs.
James Conner also hit 15 touches last week against these same Chiefs, posting 16.5 PPR points on 15 touches—including 5 catches on 6 targets—for 55 yards and 1 TD.
Ekeler remains a rock-solid RB1 with some very real upside in this game.
QB Patrick Mahomes
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chiefs are expected to score a whopping 29.25(ish) points—the 2nd most on the week 2 slate—in a satisfying 4 point home win over the division rival Chargers. The game has an exciting 54.5 point over/under, which is easily the highest on the week 2 slate. This is THE game to target in fantasy football.
After 1 week, Patrick Mahomes is the frontrunner for MVP after a flawless performance in the desert where he completed 30 of 39 passes for 360 yards and a clean 5 TDs with no INTs on the Cardinals. The guy collected his 34.9 fantasy points NBD, and finished as the QB 1 for the week.
No reason to think he WON'T continue his MVP campaign in Thursday Night's shootout against a Chargers defense that just allowed 295 yards (8th most) and 2 TDs (tied for 6th most) to Derek Carr. They DID pick him off 3 times, but he also appeared to be forcing the ball to Davante Adams and, let's just be candid: Derek Carr is not Patrick Mahomes.
(Besides, interceptions hardly even matter in fantasy football).
Besides the fact that this game is on Thursday night—I hate that—this has all the makings for fantasy football fireworks. You want as much of this action as you can get, and Patrick Mahomes is a confident high end QB 1 in week 2.
TE Travis Kelce
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chiefs are expected to score a whopping 29.25(ish) points—the 2nd most on the week 2 slate—in a satisfying 4 point home win over the division rival Chargers. The game has an exciting 54.5 point over/under, which is easily the highest on the week 2 slate. This is THE game to target in fantasy football.
Travis Kelce got off to the start we all wanted after offseason fears he would be blanketed into oblivion. He posted a super sexy 26.1 PPR points on 9 targets (led the team), 8 catches (led the team), 121 yards (led the team) and 1 TD (tied for the team lead).
He was in a familiar spot when week 1 was all said and done, sitting at TE 1 on the season.
There's no reason NOT to be excited about Kelce in week 2, a shootout with a Chargers defense that just allowed Darren Waller to soak up 4 catches for 79 yards in a game where Derek Carr was force-feeding his college sweetheart, Davante Adams.
Of course, there's always the possibility that a defense schemes to take Kelce away. That's always going to be a possibility.
But what are you gonna do? Bench Travis Kelce?
Column C: Meh
Wide Receivers - Mike Williams, Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chargers are expected to score a fantasy-friendly 25.25(ish) points—the 8th most on the week 2 slate—in a 4 point road loss to the division rival Chiefs on Thursday night. The game has a 54.5 point over/under, which is EASILY the highest on the slate. Thursday Night's contest is THE game to target in fantasy football on the week 2 slate. You theoretically want as much of this action as you can get.
Justin Hebert shared the love in week 1, spreading his targets dang near evenly: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett and Tre McKitty ALL received 4 targets each.
That's about as balanced as it gets (Joshua Kelley and Zander Horvath each received 2 and Richard Rodgers and Jalen Guyton each got 1).
It was a frustrating distribution for Mike Williams managers who hoped Keenan Allen's exist would boost his target volume. It didn't, and he finished with just 2 catches for 10 scoreless yards and a WR 99 finish. Woof.
Josh Palmer didn't do much better, capturing 3 of his 4 targets but producing only 5 yards. Not even sure how that's possible, tbh.
Out of nowhere, DeAndre Carter (and Gerald Everett) was the star that emerged, capturing 3 of his 4 targets for 64 yards and 1 TD, good for 15.4 PPR points and a WR 21 finish.
All of that being said, remember earlier when I mentioned reacting to a small sample size? It's important we don't overreact here.
Now, make no mistake, Mike Williams WILL have more clunkers like that. It's in his DNA (check out my Chargers writeup from late July if you want more data on that: https://www.basementbrewedff.com/post/los-angeles-chargers-fantasy-football-preview)...
But I like him (and Palmer) to bounce back in this shootout with the Chiefs, a unit that just allowed 14 catches (10th most) and 1 TD (tied for 9th most) to Cardinals WRs in a game they only scored 21 points.
For what it's worth, against these same Cardinals, Marquise Brown caught 4 of 6 targets for 43 yards and 1 TD (14.3 PPR points), AJ Green caught 2 of 4 targets for 13 scoreless yards (3.3 PPR points), and "Greg Dortch" caught 7 of 9 targets for 63 yards (13.3 PPR points).
I'm proceeding with cautious optimism for Mike Williams and Josh Palmer,. Williams is a high-end WR 3 with a lot of upside in this one. Palmer is a WR 4 with upside.
Not to be forgotten, Carter is a WR 4 with upside.
Jalen Guyton is just a guy that makes sense as a dirt-cheap dart through in single game only slates.
TE Gerald Everett
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chargers are expected to score a fantasy-friendly 25.25(ish) points—the 8th most on the week 2 slate—in a 4 point road loss to the division rival Chiefs on Thursday night. The game has a 54.5 point over/under, which is EASILY the highest on the slate. Thursday Night's contest is THE game to target in fantasy football on the week 2 slate. You theoretically want as much of this action as you can get.
Justin Hebert shared the love in week 1, spreading his targets dang near evenly: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett and Tre McKitty ALL received 4 targets each.
That's about as balanced as it gets (Joshua Kelley and Zander Horvath each received 2 and Richard Rodgers and Jalen Guyton each got 1).
All in all, it was a victory for Gerald Everett who secured 3 of his 4 targets for 54 yards and 1 TD, good for 14.4 PPR points and a TE 4 finish.
He has a better-than-he-usually-would chance of keeping the good tides turning in week 2, a shootout with the Kansas City Chiefs, one of just 6 teams in football that allowed a tight end to score a touchdown in week 1 (granted, they DID hold tight ends to just 2 catches and 14 yards).
Everett is once again one of my favorite TE streamers on the week 2 slate.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chiefs are expected to score a whopping 29.25(ish) points—the 2nd most on the week 2 slate—in a satisfying 4 point home win over the division rival Chargers. The game has an exciting 54.5 point over/under, which is easily the highest on the week 2 slate. This is THE game to target in fantasy football.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire got off to a very hot start in 2022, collecting 2 touchdowns—both receiving—and 74 yards—32 receiving—on just 10 touches—3 catches on 3 targets.
He scored 22.4 PPR points on his way to an RB 6 finish for the week.
And before you get nervous that he only had 10 touches—or that Isiah Pacheco technically had more with 12—know that he was getting all of the meaningful work while the game was competitive; Pacheco came in for mop-up duty.
Still, that tells us plenty we can work with...
In games that figure to remain close, CEH should be involved throughout, and he's being very efficient with his touches.
In games that the Chiefs figure to run away with, Pacheco seems the man for the job of closer.
Oh, and on the off chance the Chiefs are ever trailing, know that Jerick McKinnon out targeted CEH 4 to 3, so he could certainly have some PPR appeal.
All in all, this game figures to remain close/competitive, albeit in a shootout where both teams score a lot of points.
That likely means we see more of CEH than we did last week, while McKinnon could see an uptick in receiving work. Pacheco doesn't seem likely to get the same mop-up duty in this one and he's not a confident play in week 2.
Technically the Chargers have been solid against RBs so far, holding them to:
- 17 touches (6th fewest)
- 4 catches (10th fewest)
- 64 rushing yards (11th fewest)
- 102 scrimmage yards (12th fewest)
That said, they DID allow 1 TD and 38 receiving yards last week.
For what it's worth, that 1 TD was a receiving TD, which is exactly how CEH got both of his tiddies in week 1.
And again, this is 1 game we're working off of here. Take that with a grain of salt.
I'm treating CEH as an RB 2 with upside.
I'm treating McKinnon as an RB 4 with upside.
I'm treating Pacheco as an RB 4.
Wide Receivers - JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chiefs are expected to score a whopping 29.25(ish) points—the 2nd most on the week 2 slate—in a satisfying 4 point home win over the division rival Chargers. The game has an exciting 54.5 point over/under, which is easily the highest on the week 2 slate. This is THE game to target in fantasy football.
JuJu Smith-Schuster had a solid debut in red and yellow, posting 13.9 PPR points on 8 targets, 6 catches and 79 scoreless yards for a WR 38 finish.
Next in line from the WR room was Mecole Hardman, who tallied 10.6 PPR points on 6 targets, 3 catches, 16 yards and the receiving room's only TD. He landed as fantasy football's WR 44.
Then we had Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who corralled 4 of 4 targets for 44 scoreless yards, good enough for 8.4 PPR points and a WR 57 finish.
Last, but not least, we had scintillating rookie Skyy Moore finish with just 1 target, 1 catch and 30 yards for a total of 4 PPR points.
(Justin Watson also had 1 target but was unable to reel it in).
There's obviously a lot of time for this target share to change and it most certainly will in some ways. But all in all, this target distribution is pretty unsurprising and might make for a solid blueprint of what to expect moving forward.
That said, I think Hardman and MVS are going to prove interchangeable as the year goes on, possibly as soon as this week.
Either way, the outlook of all Chiefs (and Chargers) pass catchers is enhanced in this shootout of a showdown between premier AFC West rivals. It certainly doesn't hurt knowing that the Chargers allowed 14 catches (10th most), 178 yards (10th most) and 1 TD (tied for 9th most) to Raiders WRs—or basically just Davante Adams—last week.
I'm approaching JuJu as a WR3 with upside in PPR leagues.
I'm approaching both Mecole Hardman and MVS as WR 4s with upside. There's a believable story we can tell ourselves about one or the other blowing up in this shootout.
Skyy Moore is off the radar until he gets more involved.
Column D: Feel Gross
WR Jalen Guyton
Jalen Guyton is a guy that only makes sense as a dirt-cheap dart through in single game only slates.
RB Jerick McKinnon and RB Isiah Pacheco
*Week 2 disclaimer; it's great that we finally have some actionable data to work with, but it's important to take a small sample size with a grain of salt.*
As of WED 9/14, the Chiefs are expected to score a whopping 29.25(ish) points—the 2nd most on the week 2 slate—in a satisfying 4 point home win over the division rival Chargers. The game has an exciting 54.5 point over/under, which is easily the highest on the week 2 slate. This is THE game to target in fantasy football.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire got off to a very hot start in 2022, collecting 2 touchdowns—both receiving—and 74 yards—32 receiving—on just 10 touches—3 catches on 3 targets.
He scored 22.4 PPR points on his way to an RB 6 finish for the week.
And before you get nervous that he only had 10 touches—or that Isiah Pacheco technically had more with 12—know that he was getting all of the meaningful work while the game was competitive; Pacheco came in for mop-up duty.
Still, that tells us plenty we can work with...
In games that figure to remain close, CEH should be involved throughout, and he's being very efficient with his touches.
In games that the Chiefs figure to run away with, Pacheco seems the man for the job of closer.
Oh, and on the off chance the Chiefs are ever trailing, know that Jerick McKinnon out targeted CEH 4 to 3, so he could certainly have some PPR appeal.
All in all, this game figures to remain close/competitive, albeit in a shootout where both teams score a lot of points.
That likely means we see more of CEH than we did last week, while McKinnon could see an uptick in receiving work. Pacheco doesn't seem likely to get the same mop-up duty in this one and he's not a confident play in week 2.
Technically the Chargers have been solid against RBs so far, holding them to:
- 17 touches (6th fewest)
- 4 catches (10th fewest)
- 64 rushing yards (11th fewest)
- 102 scrimmage yards (12th fewest)
That said, they DID allow 1 TD and 38 receiving yards last week.
For what it's worth, that 1 TD was a receiving TD, which is exactly how CEH got both of his tiddies in week 1.
And again, this is 1 game we're working off of here. Take that with a grain of salt.
I'm treating CEH as an RB 2 with upside.
I'm treating McKinnon as an RB 4 with upside.
I'm treating Pacheco as an RB 4.
WR Skyy Moore
Skyy Moore is off the radar until he gets more involved.
Conclusion
There's several things in the actual Heat Map that just can't quite be captured here in this article. I highly recommend checking out the less-than-three-minute video overview below.
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