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Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 1, 2025)

Updated: Sep 25

Start/Sit Decisions

NOTE: This content is for a previous week of fantasy football. But don't fear!


When you're facing a tough start/sit decision on your fantasy football team, you may end up having to choose between Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.




Historical Player Data



Dak Prescott

Justin Herbert

Floor (75% of games)

14+ points

12+ points

Median (50% of games)

19+ points

14+ points

Ceiling (25% of games)

26+ points

20+ points

Through the Roof (Top 10% of games)

30+ points

25+ points




Game Scripts


Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles


With a wide 7 point spread in favor of the defending Super Bowl Champions, Cowboys at Eagles projects as a possible blowout in favor of the hometown Eagles. The spread suggests Philadelphia is likely to enjoy positive game script and, as a result, a balanced — if not run-heavy — offensive approach. On the flip side, the spread suggests Dallas is likely to suffer negative game script and, as a result, increase their passing volume at the expense of their rushing volume as they try to keep pace with the division rival Eagles.


Dallas’ subpar implied point total — they’re tied with the Giants and Raiders for the 4th lowest team total on the entire week 1 slate — suggests they’ll struggle to find the end zone, capping the ceiling of their fantasy-relevant players. Their rushing attack could suffer some of the worst volume they’ll handle all season, while their pass catchers might enjoy a nice boost in target volume.


Kanas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (neutral site game)


Chiefs "at" Chargers (this game is in Brazil so it's hardly a home game for the Bolts) profiles as a mediocre matchup for fantasy football purposes. The narrow spread (3.5 points in favor of the Chiefs) suggests a closely contested ball game and a neutral game script for both teams, likely leading to a balanced offensive approach for both sides.


The Chargers have a slightly-below-average implied point total (21.25 points), giving their skill players a modest outlook for fantasy football purposes. That said, there is certainly nothing scary about 21.25 points, and they're hardly a team to avoid in week 1.




Dak Prescott: Bottom Line


Expect a volume-driven, steady outing as Dallas chases points—CeeDee + Pickens keep Dak’s floor intact, landing him in the low-end QB1/high-end QB2 range. Philly’s stingy QB defense and Dallas’s low implied total cap the ceiling, so think 18(ish) fantasy points rather than week-winning fireworks.




Justin Herbert: Bottom Line


Neutral script and a modest team total point to a steady, efficiency-driven week—Herbert profiles as a mid-QB2 (~15ish points) with back-end QB1 upside if rushing shows up or pace spikes. His strong history vs KC keeps 20+ in play.




Should I start Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert?


With a volume-driven, trailing game script, I would start Dak Prescott.




Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025


Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.


Sign up to Basement Brewed Fantasy Football today and start making smarter lineup decisions that can dominate through the 2025 NFL season.

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