Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.: Who should I start in fantasy football? (Week 1, 2025 season)

When you're facing a tough start/sit decision on your fantasy football team, you may end up having to choose between Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.. Which player would Basement Brewed Fantasy Football recommend you start? Let's go through the details to find out.

Have a start/it dilemma that needs answering? Each week during the 2025 NFL season, we'll be going LIVE on YouTube to discuss your start/sit questions. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and hit that notification bell so you don't miss out!

Historical Player Data

	Tua Tagovailoa	Michael Penix Jr.
Floor (75% of games)	13+ points	N/A - First year as full time starter
Median (50% of games)	16+ points	N/A - First year as full time starter
Ceiling (25% of games)	24+ points	N/A - First year as full time starter
Through the Roof (Top 10% of games)	29+ points	N/A - First year as full time starter

Game Scripts

Dolphins at Colts projects as a closely-contested game with sneaky shootout potential, as their 47.5 point over/under is tied for the 2nd highest among all 16 games on the week 1 slate. There's plenty of fantasy football upside to this contest. Meanwhile, the narrow spread suggests a close game and neutral game script that will feature a balanced approach from both offenses. This game should feature plenty of volume, yardage, and scoring opportunities for players on both teams. This is a game to target and lean into when faced with difficult lineup decisions in week 1.

Buccaneers at Falcons projects as a potential shootout, as their 47.5 point over/under is tied for the 2nd highest among all 16 games on the week 1 slate. There's plenty of fantasy football upside to this contest. That said, the Falcons' implied point total is a sliver below average — 22.5 points is tied with the Lions for the 14th lowest total on the 32 team slate — suggesting a modest output from Atlanta's offense. Meanwhile, the narrow spread suggests a close game and neutral game script that will feature a balanced approach from both offenses. The Falcons are neither an offense to target nor avoid with difficult week 1 decisions. They're a perfectly "fine" play in week 1.

Tua Tagovailoa: Bottom Line

High end QB2 and every bit streamer worthy in a potential high scoring week 1 game. Expect Tua Tagovailoa ~15–21 fantasy points on high-volume and efficient passing; the path to 20+ points is 3+ passing TDs against a defense that allowed yards/TDs to pocket passers last year.

Michael Penix Jr.: Bottom Line

Streaming QB2 with fringe QB1 upside in a high-scoring game and great matchup. Expect Michael Penix ~13–17 fantasy points; the path to 20+ is 2–3 TDs against a Buccaneers defense that bled QB production last year.

Should I start Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.?

I like targeting the game with the narrow spread, and that leads me to starting Tua Tagovailoa despite both teams being in possible shootout scenarios.

Week Winners + Discord = Winning your league in 2025

Portions of this article come directly from our Week Winner tool (formerly Heat Map), designed to help you make more confident decisions on your way to a championship. And our private Discord server features a specific Start/Sit channel where any questions you have can get answered in real time - plus our community of hardcore fantasy football players talking DFS, sports betting, dynasty, best ball, and more. From draft to trophy, we have you covered with every decision along the way.

Sign up to Basement Brewed Fantasy Football today and start making smarter lineup decisions that can dominate through the 2025 NFL season.