NFL DFS: Week 7 Picks (DraftKings)
Welcome to week 7 of the NFL season! Crazy to think we've made it this far - there was definitely a time this summer where I was convinced we weren't having a football season at all. COVID can get bent.
Each week, we’ll be previewing the main slate on DraftKings. Our philosophy with these selections is to provide you with solid floor plays with some upside to start your roster construction, with potential GPP pivots for even further upside in tournaments.
If you're new to DFS, I'd recommend checking out our DFS 101 article before getting started, as it can give this column a lot more context.
If you'd like to see how I did in previous weeks, you can find that here:
Please note that the authors of this post are also players of daily fantasy sports, and the selections they make when creating their rosters may or may not include players listed below. You can find Derek Devereaux on DraftKings via the username DerekDevereaux.
This week’s lineup building beer of choice
Central Waters Brewing Company - Brewer's Reserve Bourbon Pecan Kringle Stout
Yes, you read that name correctly. If you're not from Wisconsin, and more specifically from the Milwaukee metro area, you may have never had a Kringle before. Shame. Take it, put it in a bourbon barrel, drink it. All of it in my mouth.
All lines via Bovada, current as of Saturday evening.
CAR at NO -7, 50 total (opened at 52.5)
GB -3 at HOU, 57 total (opened at 55.5)
BUF -10.5 at NYJ, 46 total (opened at 47.5)
DET at ATL -2, 55 total (opened at 54.5)
CLE -3 at CIN, 51 total (opened at 49.5)
DAL at WSH -1, 45 total (opened at 49)
PIT at TEN -1, 51 total (opened at 51.5)
TB -4.5 at LV, 52 total (opened at 54)
KC -7.5 at DEN, 44 total (opened at 48.5)
SF at NE -3, 45 total (opened at 46)
JAX at LAC -7.5, 49 total (opened at 51.5)
SEA -3.5 at ARI, 55 total (opened at 53.5 - yes, this is on the main slate this week!)
Favorite game to target
Green Bay and Houston feels obvious. It's the highest total, but with the news that Aaron Jones is going to miss this game, it'll make ownership really interesting - will people pivot to the Rodgers/Adams combo or will they play the cheap RBs in Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon?
Aaron Rodgers, $7000, GB (at HOU)
I'll just straight up tell you which side I'm playing. Houston is terrible against the pass. Actually, they're just terrible. Rodgers is arguably one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, coming off of a poor game, in a plus matchup, in the highest total game, and he's the fifth most expensive QB. I don't care if it's narrative street or statistic street, he's going to crush value.
Justin Herbert, $6400, LAC (vs. JAX)
He's arguably the front runner for rookie of the year right now, at least if he keeps this pace up. Over his first four starts, he's averaging nearly 300 yards per game and has a 3:1 TD to INT ratio. And he doesn't necessarily need volume to get there, either, as we saw against Tampa Bay when he only threw 25 passes and still scored 24 DK points. Now we get a good matchup against a beatable Jacksonville defense at home with his full compliment of receiving weapons healthy. What's not to like?
Kyle Allen, $5200, WAS (vs. DAL)
This is strictly a matchup and price play. He's extremely cheap for a starting QB, he's at home, favored, against a Dallas defense that has been getting shredded for weeks. Worth a punt? Perhaps, but it's Kyle Allen. This is the Trubisky rule. Can he get to 20? Sure, it's possible.
Potential GPP pivots: Kyler Murray ($7100, vs. SEA), Matthew Stafford ($6500, at ATL), Teddy Bridgewater #RevengeGame ($5800, at NO)
Derrick Henry, $7300, TEN (vs. PIT)
Volume. Volume. Volume. Volume. Volume. He's not going to run for 200 yards again, so don't get your hopes up for that. But look at the guys around him - Kamara's volume is inconsistent (although his reception counts keep him afloat), Zeke and the Cowboys are a mess without Dak and they're in a very low total game, Aaron Jones isn't going to play, Kareem Hunt's volume is inconsistent, and Mike Davis is now showing he can't even keep up his target volume. James Conner is the only other one who gets touches at a relatively consistent pace, but even then, it's not what we see from Henry. If you're going up, go here.
Josh Jacobs, $6300, LV (vs. TB)
I actually think running back is a bit thin this week, and even Jacobs finds himself in kind of a "dead zone" until you get to the next guy on my list, but it's hard to ignore the consistency in Jacobs' game. 15+ carries and 3+ targets sets in each of his first five games sets him up with a nice floor. The matchup isn't great, but if we know what we're getting to start, we just need him to fall into the end zone and we're getting above value.
Giovani Bernard, $4500, CIN (at CLE)
I'm going to make this clear now, and maybe it comes back to bite me, but whatever. Gio is light years ahead of Jamaal Williams ($4000) as the better play as a cheap running back. Literal light years. We don't even know if Jamaal Williams is the guy! Why can't AJ Dillion take up some of the volume, even to the point of it being a 50-50 split or worse? Meanwhile, here we have Gio, who has zero competition behind him, catches passes out of the backfield, and is himself in a high total game. Do you really want to save $500 for an unknown dart throw? People will, and I will take their money. (Or they will play both, and I will still take their money.)
Potential GPP pivots: James Conner ($6700, at TEN), David Johnson ($5300, vs. GB), Justin Jackson ($4900, vs. JAX - assuming he plays; if not Joshua Kelley ($5100) is in play)
Davante Adams, $7900, GB (at HOU)
See Rodgers, Aaron. Target monster. No Aaron Jones. All you can eat buffet for the duo. If Mikey could put something better than Tier A, these two would be in it with fireworks and champagne emojis.
Terry McLaurin, $5800, WAS (vs. DAL)
Bad QBs look to their best weapons as often as possible. As a principle, if you're getting nearly 10 targets a game and under $6000, you're in consideration. Add in the fact that Dallas couldn't stop me running routes out there, and there's no reason to believe we don't see another 7/70 out of Terry. This looks like a misprice.
Tre'Quan Smith, $4000, NO (at CAR)
Emmanuel Sanders was placed on the COVID list, and Michael Thomas is nursing yet another injury. That leaves Tre'Quan Smith and likely Marquez Callaway ($3000) as the top two receiving options in this game. We've seen the ability with Tre'Quan already this year, and while I'm optimistic as a fan of the team in Callaway's long-term potential, to think this is going to be his breakout week feels a bit premature. WR1 at $4000 in a high total, yes please. Plug and play.
Potential GPP pivots: Stefon Diggs ($7000, at NYJ), Tyreek Hill ($6400, at DEN), AJ Brown ($6300, vs. PIT), Mike Williams ($4700, vs. JAX)
Darren Waller, $6100, LV (at TB)
All three tight ends at the top of the price range are our volume guys, but I like the game environment for Waller, who should see a nice role for himself with Bryan Edwards missing this game. We're looking at a higher total, too. I'm not playing him and Jacobs together, but there's no reason to consider them separately. On the other two, I think Kelce is fine, but I'll probably be a full fade on Kittle.
Dalton Schultz, $3900, DAL (at WAS)
We obviously have a way-to-small sample size of what's going to happen with this team with Andy Dalton at the helm, but thankfully we have enough Andy Dalton sampling to know that this is a massive downgrade for the offense as a whole. But less affected will be Schultz, who Andy is going to rely on over the middle for some short to intermediate throws that he can make. We saw four catches for him last week, and he's gotten a $600 price reduction in what's probably a better matchup for him. I don't know that there's upside, but we can't ignore the other variables that bring up his theoretical floor.
Potential GPP pivots: Jonnu Smith ($4700, vs. PIT), Jared Cook ($4300, vs. CAR)
Washington is $2500 going against Andy Dalton. Play whoever you want, as always, but I felt the need to say that in written form because lol he's going to get sacked 17 times and have four turnovers.
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Good luck, and may your screens be green!